Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011037
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT MOST OF UTAH SOUTH OF I-80
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 125-165KT CYCLONIC JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GOES/HRRR/GPS/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15"-0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO
0.30"-0.45" MOST VALLEYS.

EASTERLY GUSTS OF 30-45MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT...SUPPORTING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THOUGH
LITTLE NEW SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY AS FLOW REGIME BECOMES
NORTHERLY.

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOWFALL WILL BECOME A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT
AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CYCLONE TODAY.
GOING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS COVER THIS...BUT THREAT WILL LIKELY CARRY
THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND PORTION OF SOUTHERN UTAH.
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS.

HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. THIS IS BASED ON SIGNIFICANT
ROAD SNOW DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...WIND AND COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN AS MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE THE FLOW REVERSES.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REALIZE A SHIFT OF THE LONG WAUPSTREAM
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY ASSOCIATVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DOMINATING
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA...WITH UPSTREAM
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SPLITTING
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS
PERIOD FOCUSES ON SAID SPLIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.

GLOBAL MODELS LATELY INDICATING SIGNS OF A MORE SPLIT SOLUTION AND
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF THIS NEXT TROUGH. DIFFERENCES EVOLVE REGARDING WHERE THIS TROUGH
MAY CLOSE OFF...WITH THE ECMWF MORE RAPID ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER ON
INTO NORTHERN AZ LIMITING POTENTIAL FORCING AND RESULTANT PRECIP
ACROSS NAMELY WESTERN/NORTH UTAH. LATEST GFS TRENDING THIS WAY AS
WELL...BUT A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP A CLOSED NATURE POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION LOCALLY. OPTED TO TREND
GRIDS MORE TOWARDS CLIMO AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW
ATTM...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST A MINOR AT BEST EVENT REGARDLESS.

IN WAKE OF EITHER OUTCOME...GLOBALS AGREE ON LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC DIRECTIONS
TRENDING WESTERLY AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THE TERMINAL WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIMITED TO DUSTINGS ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH MID MORNING.
CIGS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB 6000FT AGL THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ012>016-
     020-021-517-518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ008>010-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ003-
     004-006-011.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ002.

WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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