Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 170947
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
UTAH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES AROUND A HALF AN
INCH...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS UTAH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH. THUS...COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WITH MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
UNSTABLE MASS IN PLACE...PLUS LIFT GENERATED BY UPPER JET NOSING
INTO REGION...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE SWEPT EAST OF FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS
WITH GFS INDICATING A DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. ECMWF
HAS BACK AWAY FROM VERY DEEP 12Z SATURDAY MODEL RUN SOLUTION.
GIVEN LACK ON CONTINUITY IN RECENT MODELS RUN AND FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO WILL HOLD
ON TO CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KSLC.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 19Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP TO PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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