Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 162134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
334 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cool airmass will reside across the region today,
followed by a warming trend Sunday into Monday. The next cold
front will cross northern and central Utah Tuesday, bringing
some precipitation to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming along
with a noticeable drop in temperatures.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00z Tuesday)...High pressure is over the
forecast area this afternoon resulting in dry, stable, and
relatively cool conditions. Some cumulus clouds have developed over
the higher terrain of southern Utah, but skies are otherwise clear.
In the wake of the cold front that moved through yesterday, maxes
are running 10 to 15F below seasonal normals across the entire area.

The ridge will shift east tonight as a poorly organized Pacific
Northwest trough approaches the area. This system will move past the
forecast area tomorrow into tomorrow night as it continues to
weaken. It may bring enough moisture and instability for a few
showers over the higher terrain, but its primary impact will be to
usher in warm advection southerly flow. The warming trend tomorrow
into Monday will be quite noticeable, with maxes Monday afternoon
expected to be fairly close to seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM (After 00z Tuesday)...A very pronounced baroclinic zone
will drop into northern Utah Tuesday, once again cooling
temperatures down 10-12C degrees. Another round of fall-like
weather to Utah and southwest Wyoming is in store through the
latter part of the upcoming week.

A strong jet will nose through the Pacific Northwest, pushing
colder air southeastward with a tightly packed cold front to enter
Utah Tuesday. Convergent flow associated with this cold front and
considerable moisture will create areas of showers across northern
Utah and along the Wasatch Front Tuesday, even snow showers in the
mountains. Snow levels will drop down into the 7500-8000 ft range
with this system. Day time temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees
below seasonable normals.

With the rather quick progression of this shortwave trough exiting
to the east by Wednesday, temperatures look to recover and snow
levels do as well at least for a short period of time. The next
storm system looks to be more potent and well defined by the long
range forecast models.

The next trough feature is forecast to dig farther south and
become deeper and colder in nature as it traverses through the
Great Basin. The cold front moving into Utah by Thursday morning
will lower snow levels down to around 6500-7000 feet. Differences
between the ECMWF and the GFS are most notable with the trough
feature either becoming a closed low (EC) or a split trough (GFS)
by Saturday. The cold front with this trough looks to dive farther
south than the one earlier in the week, and has more moisture
associated with it at this time. A very unsettled week ahead is in
store with an even greater fall-like feel to the weather, but for
mid-late September it is about time.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue at the KSLC terminal
today and tonight, along with generally light winds. Thickening
clouds and eventually broken cigs possible tonight and early
tomorrow, but remaining above 7kft AGL.


.FIRE WEATHER...Weak high pressure in between storm systems is
resulting in a dry and stable airmass over the district this
afternoon. This ridge will shift east as a weakening trough moves
across the area tomorrow, generating a few showers over the higher
terrain of northern Utah. The area will see a noticeable warming
trend tomorrow and Monday in increasing southerly flow. Winds will
be gusty at times on Monday with winds continuing to increase
ahead of the next approaching storm system. This trough will bring
a cold front through the area on Tuesday, with some precipitation
expected for northern Utah.




SHORT TERM...Traphagan
AVIATION...Van Cleave
FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan

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