Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 211738
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1138 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The southwest flow over the Great Basin will maintain
warm and dry conditions across most of western Utah today.
Moisture across southern and eastern Utah will spawn showers and
thunderstorms again today. Drier air will move into Utah and
southwest Wyoming beginning late Friday...with dry and seasonally
warm conditions persisting into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level ridge remains centered over the southern
plains allowing southwest flow to bring deep monsoon moisture
into central and eastern Utah. A weak shortwave is lifting north
through southeast Utah this morning as seen on water vapor
imagery. Some subsidence across far southern Utah has led to some
clearing skies there. The clearing skies will allow this region to
rapidly warm this afternoon...but subsidence should delay any
convective development near the Arizona border until at least mid-
afternoon and the HRRR has supported this for several runs. Focus
of convection will shift a bit further north as lift ahead of weak
shortwave will help destabilize the airmass across central...east
central and northeast Utah. Still some weak CIN in place in these
areas as of 1700 UTC, but this should erode over the next couple
of hours allowing convection to develop over the higher terrain
before drifting Northeast over the adjacent valleys. Shear is
quite weak, so the threat of severe storms is small, but with over
an inch of precipitable water in place localized heavy rain will
be possible.

Enough moisture has lifted into west central Utah and east central
Nevada that even with a very modest SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg isolated
convection may be able to develop over the higher terrain in east
central Nevada and then drift into far western Utah late this
afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, another hot day across the state with high temperatures
climbing to around 100 degrees along the central and southern
wasatch front.

&&

.AVIATION...Enhanced southeasterly drainage wind will weaken
and shift to a northwest lake breeze around 21Z at KSLC, with a
chance shift may be delayed to 22Z.  VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Graham
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

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