Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 260943
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
343 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 06Z TUE)...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER W CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE CWA.

EXPECT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TODAY MAINLY OVER THE SRN MTNS BUT
THE AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
FROM THESE AND HAVE LOWERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING TO
DRY IN ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SEVERAL VALLEY AREAS REACHING 100.

THE HIGH EXPANDS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND THE AIRMASS
WARMS EVEN MORE UNDER IT WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING 100 ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT INCLUDING SLC. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT WITHIN THE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE THE FLASH FLOOD RATING INTO THE LOW CATEGORY
FOR THE SRN MTNS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS STORM DRIFT WILL BE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE HIGH MOVES LITTLE SUN THRU MON AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME
A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS AND START TO GET A LITTLE WETTER SUN
AFTN/EVE AND MORE SO MON AFTN/EVE. STILL THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME
WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM DRIFTING TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY DEVELOP
AND EXPECT THE NWRN VALLEYS INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT TO STAY
DRY THRU AT LEAST MON EVE.

THE AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES TO WARM SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MON STAYING HOT ACROSS THE NWRN VALLEYS WHILE THEY START TO COOL
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOUTH DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z TUESDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO
WESTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER NEVADA. CURRENT
MODEL RUNS DO NOT FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS MUCH AS THE SOLUTIONS FROM
LAST NIGHT...SO THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE
AND WEAKER...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BRING A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND
TO THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE PEAK DAY
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. AS NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS
WORKING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRYING TREND
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT SAID...DID INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS
THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO WANDER
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS OF KANE COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AT THE SLC
TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z...INCREASING ABOVE 7 KNOTS AROUND
18-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO MORE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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