Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 171117
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
516 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH TODAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF UTAH STAYS STABLE AND DRY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER
AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES AROUND AN INCH REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST UTAH...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY
SEEING VALUES IN THE 0.3-0.7 INCH RANGE. DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT...THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAL/OREGON BORDER IS
PROGGED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
A SMALL INCREASE IN PWAT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
AREAS TODAY.

THE RIDGE WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEVADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL POP CONVECTION
MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH FRIDAY AND FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE BRIEF AS
THE HIGH CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO BULGES BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST...ALLOWING A MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE MAY
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
MONSOONAL SURGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BY 16-17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHERE
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE THAT RETREATED
BACK ACROSS NEVADA WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS UTAH FRIDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY OCCUR COULD BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER ZONE 478 WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTH WHERE DRY AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD. THIS DRYING TREND FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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