Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 131150
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL ELONGATE TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES EASTWARD...WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
DEGRADE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ENHANCES SHOWER ACTIVITY A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH
HAVE TRENDED MOST VALLEY POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH 18Z. SNOW LEVELS
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIPITATION NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH...HOWEVER A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.

HAVE MAINTAINED GOING WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR HOW...HOWEVER MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP THESE EARLY IF PRECIPITATION DOES INDEED BECOME
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND IMPACT BECOMES MINIMAL.

MID LEVEL RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A DRYING
TREND BEFORE A SERIES OF TROUGHS APPROACH THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION AS THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE EC THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. NOTICED THAT THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. WITH BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TWO TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO REFLECT THIS...DESPITE SOME STRENGTH AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES.

CURRENT FORECAST OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY LOOKS
GOOD IN BOTH EC AND GFS. THE MODELS DIVERGE HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FACT THAT THEY BOTH SHOW A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH HAVE PUSHED POPS UP TO CLIMO ACROSS THE NORTH
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 18-19Z. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 7K FT AGL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY THEN LOWER IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER 19Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS REMAIN
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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