Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 251106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
506 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will stall over central Utah today. The
next upper trough will move across the area Friday. A cool
northerly flow will follow the trough on Saturday. A warming
trend starts Sunday and continues into mid week.


.SHORT TERM (Thru 18Z Saturday)...A deep upper low is centered
over southern Saskatchewan early this morning with a short wave
trailing southwestward across ern and srn MT, srn ID, then into
nwrn NV. The associated cold front has pushed thru nrn UT and has
made it south of Delta at this time. Scattered showers have
persisted across nrn UT but should become isolated by mid morning.
Showers have also persisted across central UT along and south of
the front.

The upper short wave shears out this afternoon and the front
stalls. Expect showers to persist along the boundary and could
become scattered over the mtns from the Uintas south. The breezy
north winds across northern UT should diminish today but winds
will pick up out of the southwest across southern UT south of the
front and will be fairly gusty, tho not as strong as yesterday.

A new short wave trof dropping down the west side of the closed
low will end up over swrn ID this eve then swing slowly east
across nrn UT on Fri. The stalled cold front lifts back north
tonight ahead of this wave then pushes south again on Fri as the
wave arrives. Models continue to indicate precip will be fairly
widespread across the nrn CWA on Fri with a band of showers moving
south Fri night along and ahead of the axis of the short wave

Winds will pick up on both sides of the front on Fri becoming
gusty in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 18Z Saturday)...Still looking at a few showers
and thunderstorms, primarily over the higher terrain, on
Saturday afternoon as the last wave from the trough rotates
through the forecast area as it weakens. 00Z EC/GFS indicate this
wave taking a track that moves it farther south than indicated in
previous runs, so have introduced some POPs for the higher terrain
of central and southern Utah.

High pressure is expected to move back into the forecast area
beginning Saturday night/Sunday as the wave exits. EC rapidly
dries the airmass, resulting in little chance of afternoon
convection for Sunday and Monday afternoon. However, the GFS
continues to keep some lingering moisture over northern Utah, so
have left in isolated POPs.

GFS continues to indicate a weakening of the ridge for early next
week, bringing a somewhat unstable and unusually moist airmass
into the forecast area. 00Z run shows PWs in the 0.6-0.7 inch
range moving into southern Utah Tuesday night/Wednesday and into
the rest of Utah and southwest Wyoming by Thursday.
Climatologically, such PWs would be near the 90th percentile for
this time of year, so am hesitant to latch onto such a solution,
especially since the EC continues to indicate warm and dry high
pressure at least through Wednesday. However, have increased
coverage of isolated POPs to account for this solution.


.AVIATION...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the
morning with cigs above 6000 feet AGL. Northwest winds are
expected to prevail into the afternoon. However, there is a 30
percent chance of gusty and/or erratic winds before about 12Z with
showers in the vicinity of the terminal.


.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front is pushing south through the district
this morning and will stall near a Milford to Hanksville line this
afternoon. Showers across the north this morning will shift into
central Utah this afternoon. Warm dry windy conditions will
persist across southern Utah today south of the front. The front
and the associated showers will retreat northward tonight then the
front surges south again Friday with showers becoming widespread
across the north. The front crosses southern Utah Friday night
with a few showers persisting along it. The cooler temperatures
and somewhat higher RH will spread across southern Utah for
Saturday. A few afternoon thunderstorms are still expected over
the mountains and east Saturday afternoon. A warming trend starts
Sunday and continues into mid week.





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