Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 162208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
408 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the southern Rockies will
gradually shift east through the weekend. Warm and dry conditions
will prevail through Saturday before moisture begins to return to
the state Sunday, lingering through much of next week.


.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...A weak cold front remains
stalled across central Utah this afternoon. This cold front will
continue to weaken tonight, then lift north tomorrow. Breezy
southwest winds continue ahead of the cold front this afternoon.
With southwesterly flow spreading back north tomorrow, expect these
breezy winds to spread into northern Utah.

Moisture currently over southern Arizona is expected to start
spreading into southeast Utah tomorrow afternoon. The GFS remains a
bit faster and stronger with this moisture surge tomorrow than the
NAM. That being said, the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS have trended
slightly less aggressive with this than the 06z run. This combined
with limited instability would suggest that convection will be
limited in coverage, with just isolated high-based showers and
thunderstorms expected.

Moisture will increase more significantly for Monday with help from
a weak disturbance crossing southeast Utah. Both the GFS and NAM
indicate PWAT values over one inch by Monday afternoon across
southeast Utah. This will bring a corresponding increase in
convective coverage, although the best chance will remain over the
spine of Utah and southern and eastern Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...A nearly stationary upper level
low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will be in place
Tuesday morning. A shortwave rotating around the base of this
trough will help to start to elongate this trough toward western
Washington. With this shift, expect the deepest moisture will be
restricted to areas of Utah from the Wasatch Crest eastward from
Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Wednesday afternoon/evening, the next wave in a fairly
progressive pattern across the Eastern Pacific will help to
finally eject the persistent trough out of the Pacific Northwest.
The ejecting wave is then expected to approach the Pacific
Northwest Coast Friday. The main impact this will have is at least
minimal moisture will likely start to build back toward the
northern and western portions of the state after Wednesday.
Models have been relatively inconsistent with this portion of the
forecast, so continued to leave low pops from Thursday onward.


.AVIATION...Mid and high clouds expected at the SLC terminal through
the evening, with ceilings to remain above 7000 feet. Northwest
winds may be gusty at times, and will persist through the early
evening before switching to the southeast after 04z.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak cold front will remain stalled across central
Utah through this evening. Ahead of this cold front, a breezy and
dry southwesterly flow remains in place. The cold front will weaken
and retreat northward tomorrow, spreading breezy southwest flow into
northern Utah. As a result, have expanded fire weather highlights
into northern Utah for tomorrow.

Moisture begins to spread into southeast Utah tomorrow. This will
bring a small chance of dry thunderstorms to the mountains and some
of the southeastern valleys tomorrow afternoon. The moisture is
expected to increase rapidly across the spine of Utah and eastern
valleys by Monday with a corresponding increase in relative
humidity. Although thunderstorms will increase in coverage, the
chance of wetting rain will also increase. However, west-central and
northwest Utah will remain dry with breezy southwest winds on Monday.

Moisture is expected to decrease a bit on Tuesday, but the rest of
the week will see moisture continuing to spread into the southern
and eastern portions of the fire district.


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ484-489-493-495-

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ479-483.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ492.

     Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ478.




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