Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 262155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE POTENTIALLY
RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM FROM A
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITHIN THIS FLOW IS LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH...AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERRAIN FROM THE UINTAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT FOR THIS EVENING.

THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INLAND AND ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UT NEAR THE ID BORDER REGION...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA.

A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IN
FACT...LOCATIONS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY WELL REMAIN IN THE
70S THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ELONGATED 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY...INHIBITING MOISTURE RETURN AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN MID
LEVELS PREVAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN UTAH...THOUGH EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.

RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CENTER GRADUALLY
MOVING TO FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THUS...MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY AND PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO UTAH. WITH
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS...AS
WELL AS MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE WORDING FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH LOOKS GOOD FOR
SATURDAY AND FOR MOST OF UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOMEWHAT ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INHIBITED
PROGRESSION OF LAKE BREEZE WITH ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE
IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT EVEN REACH KSLC.
SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOOKS AS IF COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 15Z ON MONDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH BASED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN WINDIER LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST UT WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH MONDAY MORNING...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN UT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND TO
THE WEST- SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING. A COUPLE OF WINDIER
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST UTAH MAY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA MONDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SEAMAN/BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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