Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 200336
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
936 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES UTAH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL AMPLIFY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO DRAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. TODAYS CONVECTION WAS
QUITE SHALLOW AND SPOTTY AND CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. LOSS OF SOLAR AND ASSOCIATED HEATING ALLOWED
SAID SHALLOW CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TO LEAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...NAMELY TO COVER FOR WEAK LIFT
GENERATED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARING FROM THE LOW OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUED EXISTENCE OF THE AXIS IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SYNCH REGARDING THE LOW AND ITS
PROGRESSION...RETROGRADING OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND SHEARING AS IT DOES SO. REMNANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS WILL TRACK SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
STATE TOMORROW DRAWING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM NEVADA INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION
REMAINS LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS TOMORROW...WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS
IMPLYING RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
WIND THAN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF. THE SOUTH HOWEVER WILL BE
DRYING AS A DRY SLOT BEHIND TO WAVE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE OUT OF
ARIZONA/BAJA. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVES
PASSAGE SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD...WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY VERY SHALLOW AND BENIGN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING SENSIBLE WEATHER RATHER BENIGN WITH TEMPS
RUNNING AT OR JUST OVER CLIMO COME MONDAY

NO OTHER UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COVERS THE
LONG TERM PERIODS...

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND LIFT NORTH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SPURRING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE
ELONGATES ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SHOT OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION AND IGNITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WASATCH AND UINTA
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME
MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY AS UTAH BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL PROMOTE DRIER AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-04Z. HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH INTO TONIGHT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTH PAST MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
LIFTING INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT INCREASES NORTH WHILE IT LOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE AND SPEEDS
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED CRITICAL VALUES BUT HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND THE AIRMASS WILL
DRY OUT. THIS WILL SEND HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO CRITICAL LEVELS
AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEYS
BOTH DAYS. WINDS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG ENOUGH MONDAY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO CREATE LOCAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT AN UPTICK IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY KEEP CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS FROM
REACHING CRITICAL VALUES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ478-492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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