Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 092138
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
338 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINING A VERY MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A THICK CANOPY OF CIRRUS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS CIRRUS
IS FORECAST TO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER IS DRAGGING A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN ID. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE ID BORDER REGION...THE ONLY REAL IMPACT
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA IS TO COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY.

A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST IS AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS IT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALLOWING FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO
HOLD SERVE WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EC
REMAINING A BIT DEEPER WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE THAN THE
GFS...AND SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WHILE THE
GFS REMAINS DRY. EITHER WAY...A THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY ALLOWING STOUT WARM ADVECTION AND A
BRIEF WARMING OF TEMPS TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THEREAFTER GLOBALS ARE
INDICATING A RAPID FLATTENING TO THIS RIDGE AS A PROGRESSIVE NEAR
WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHES THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. A LOT OF VARIETY
CONTINUES TO EXIST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THESE CONTINUE TO CHANGE
RUN TO RUN SO DETAILS REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL...THE GFS BEING THE
MOST ROBUST AND WETTEST REGARDING A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TUE
THROUGH THU. DID INCREASE POPS TO ROUGHLY CLIMO ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS COME
WEDNESDAY AS MOST OUTCOMES WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIP DURING
THOSE TIMES AND AREAS. COOLED TEMPS A BIT FURTHER BUT NOT OVERLY SO
UNTIL MODELS LATCH ON TO A MORE DEFINITIVE SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH 05-07Z TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME THIS EVENING BUT
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000FT AGL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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