Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 311033
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

A LULL FOR OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LAST INTO THE
NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. COLD AIR BEHIND THE LAST SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AT THE
SURFACE. HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 20S AT BEST
IN THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SOME SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING AS THE UPPER
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. MOIST DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL JUST MAKE IT ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER...DELIVERING SOME SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I80
BEFORE SUNRISE.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW ENTERS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AROUND NOON WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS A LINE FROM
KAYCEE TO RIVERTON TO KEMMERER AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST BY THAT
TIME. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A COLORADO STORM
BUT RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...
POSSIBLY BRINGING MEASURABLE SNOW INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 EAST OF ROCK SPRINGS IF IT MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT
TRACK. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT CASPER WILL ALSO
GET A MEASURABLE SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM WITH OVER 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...AND UP TO 6 INCHES ON CASPER MOUNTAIN. MOST
OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME DIFFUSE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT END OF
THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LESS CONVECTIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST SYSTEM SO THAT AT
LEAST REMOVES ONE ELEMENT OF CHAOS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING AND HOW
FAR WEST WILL IT TRAVEL. WIND WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS THE LOW
WRAPS UP IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPECT SOME STIFF NORTHEASTERLIES TO
DEVELOP...INCREASING THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE NORTHEAST WIND WILL PRESENT A STRONG CROSS
WIND THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRAILERS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY...GRADUAL DRYING AND SOME CLEARING AS OUR STORM PULLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES LEFTOVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKEOVER WITH A CHANCE FOR A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
DELIVER A LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...IN
ADDITION TO WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING...WITH SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 20 BELOW ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NW FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY. DRY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SCATTERED SNOW FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS SOME MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW. NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SCATTERED SNOW AS WELL.
DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE SW. SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO LINGER IN THE NW MOUNTAINS AS UPGLIDE PERSISTS. ON
THURSDAY MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF A WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES THURS NIGHT AND DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO THE WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...DRY THURSDAY. THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES BY. DRY FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL. GFS/ECMWF MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE WEST NEXT SUNDAY. LOW PRECIP CHANCE
IN THE FAR WEST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS LOOK TONIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS...COLD WEDNESDAY...LITTLE MILDER THURS AND FRI. EVEN MILDER
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR BASIN INVERSIONS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS IN THE SNOW COVERED BASINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS

A STRATOCU DECK /MVFR OR LOW VFR/ WITH FLURRIES IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...MAINLY NW OF KAFO-KPNA LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOO DEVELOP IN MOST AREA...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SWEETWATER COUNTY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OVER THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z
MONDAY...MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL

ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE OWL CREEK MOUNTAINS...TO THE CASPER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE ENTIRELY GONE BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOME
LOW CEILINGS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BEGIN TO FORM BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z...WITH KCPR BEING IMPACTED THE MOST FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT
IN FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION TODAY. INVERSIONS RETURN EAST OF
THE DIVIDE ON SUNDAY...FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST KEEPING THE
TETON DISPATCH AREA MODERATELY MIXED. ANOTHER STORM BRUSHES THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CASPER AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN


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