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000
FXUS65 KRIW 042020
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
120 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COWBOY STATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
BE ANY FOG THAT FORMS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS
SOMEWHAT DRY TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM SWEETWATER TO
NATRONA COUNTY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...MODERATING THE
TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING FOG FROM FORMING. LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
STAR VALLEY AND WIND RIVER BASIN WILL BE CALM...WHICH WOULD BE MOST
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A WARMING TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL
RIPPLE ALONG THE PERIPHERY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THEY WILL SUPPLY
SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
GLOBAL MODELS THEN SPLIT WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACNW WHILE THE
EUROPEAN AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE...TAKING THAT WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD THEN BRING
THAT WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHILE THE EUROPEAN PUTS MORE
ENERGY INTO AMPLIFYING BOTH FEATURES...WHICH WOULD KEEP US DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM WOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK...THIS TRACK WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW...OR RAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME POPS
WERE KEPT VERY CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR
KCPR AND INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR KCOD. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS NEAR
KRKS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

INVERSIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS
TIME...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE LOCATIONS...KEEPING MIXING
HEIGHTS LOW AND SMOKE DISPERSION POOR. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ENOUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS DISPATCH AREA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CODY AND CASPER DISPATCH AREAS...FOR BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS AND SMOKE
DISPERSION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAVOIE
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...LAVOIE
FIRE WEATHER...LAVOIE