Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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454 FXUS64 KEWX 200537 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An upper level ridge continues to reside over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level pressure field is somewhat ill defined. The flow, while generally from the southern half of the compass, is best defined as light and variable over South-Central Texas. A warm, moist airmass remains in place. Temperatures and dewpoints are within a couple of degrees of where they were 24 hours ago. The upper ridge will shift ever so slowly toward the east during the short term period. Models show the low level flow becoming better established from the southeast tonight, and that will continue through Friday night. Subsident flow from the upper ridge will keep the weather dry through the period. The above normal temperatures will also continue. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly in the 70s. Some record warm lows will be possible both nights. High temperatures Friday will be in the 90s. Record highs are 100 and higher. While we do not have any records in the forecast, some places could be within a couple of degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper-level ridging will be at it`s strongest and centered over South Central Texas on Saturday. It should begin to flatten and weaken somewhat by Sunday afternoon, opening the door for a cold front to surge southward into the northern Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau late Sunday. Our next shot at rain probably won`t arrive until at least Tuesday as another upper-level trough approaches from the west. What happens beyond Wednesday is very much in question. When guidance can get a better grasp on what sort of tropical activity develops in the western Caribbean and what to do with the 500mb High as it weakens and slides eastward, it will determine how the large scale pattern evolves next week. In any matter, it looks like we should see an end to the above normal temperatures and replace it with near normal highs by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for the next couple of hours (to about 07z) before MVFR cigs begin to affect the I-35 corridor sites. The RGB nighttime microphysics imagery is showing pockets of low cigs pushing from the Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor as well over the southern part of the Rio Grande. These low cigs are forecast to affect the area terminals overnight through mid Friday morning. There are some hints of IFR cigs affecting the KAUS, KSAT and KSSF between 12z and 13z and therefore mentioned. VFR cigs return to area terminals along the I-35 by 16z and shortly after across KDRT. Southeast winds of 6 knots or less are forecast for the overnight into mid Friday morning time frame, then 6 to 9 knots in the afternoon and evening with occasional gusts up to 15 knots for the I-35 sites and up to 20 knots for KDRT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 100 75 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 74 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 97 73 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 79 96 78 / 10 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 73 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 96 74 94 72 / 10 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 73 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 74 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 76 95 74 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 76 97 75 / 10 10 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...17