Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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105
FXUS64 KEWX 072022
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 142 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

There is a deep upper level trough with a cutoff low over Arizona
with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface a warm front has
moved to the northern border of our CWA from the coast. This front
has brought a warmer and much moister airmass. Temperatures are
around five degrees warmer and dewpoints are 25 to 30 degrees higher
than 24 hours ago. With this moist flow and the warm front there are
isolated showers across the area.

To the northwest of our CWA there is a cold front approaching and
this front will be the focus for convection tonight. This boundary
will likely produce strong convection during the evening and
overnight. The warm, moist airmass is conditionally unstable. It
also has strong deep layer wind shear. As the cold front provides
lift it will generate thunderstorms some of which could be strong to
severe. The most likely area for stronger storms will be Val Verde
County and adjacent parts of the Edwards Plateau with lower chances
farther east. The most likely threat will be large hail with
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. The front will
progress to the east through the night pushing rain chances with it.

Friday the front will continue across our CWA and chances for
showers and thunderstorms will continue. There will still be the
possibility of strong to severe storms, but the threat is lower. The
front should reach the eastern edge of our area by Friday evening
and there will be lingering chances for rain across the eastern half
of the CWA. We should start to see some cooler air move in behind
the front Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A few lingering showers are possible over the Coastal Plains early
Saturday, but otherwise, expect cooler and drier conditions in the
wake of the cold frontal passage. It won`t take long to see winds
swing back around out of the south Saturday afternoon, as the push of
cooler air behind the front won`t be particularly strong. We`ll
continue to keep our focus on the Gulf and what Hurricane Rafael
does, but at present, the forecast continues to trend south and west
of the state and into northern Mexico by mid to late week via the NHC
forecast cone.

Mild and dry conditions are expected through the start
of next week with highs in the 70s and 80s and mornings in the 50s
and 60s through Wednesday. Beyond that, models start to diverge on
what may happen with the Wednesday night through Thursday time frame.
One one hand, the ECM has widespread showers and storms along a front
as it pushes through the region, with a stronger and deeper trough
dipping all the way south into the Panhandle, while the GFS has this
trough far weaker and further north, but still sending a rather
strong cold front into the region with cooler and dry conditions
behind it. The GFS is dry with this frontal passage. For now, the
forecast does not explicitly call for any rain for that time frame,
but we have some time for things to come into better agreement as
this next front is nearly a week away.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings prevail at all terminals this afternoon. We should
see low end VFR ceilings for the rest of the afternoon. There are
isolated showers across the area and they could affect any of the
airports over the next few hours. Showers will be more likely by mid-
afternoon, but should not change the flying category. Showers should
end by the middle of the evening. Low ceilings will develop again by
around midnight and eventually drop to IFR overnight. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move through during the day Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  83  58  75 /  30  60  50  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  83  58  75 /  30  60  50  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  86  60  79 /  20  50  40  10
Burnet Muni Airport            67  78  53  73 /  40  70  40  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  77  54  77 /  60  80  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  81  56  73 /  40  70  50  10
Hondo Muni Airport             69  80  58  78 /  30  60  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  84  58  76 /  30  50  50  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  84  61  75 /  30  60  60  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  83  61  78 /  30  50  40  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  85  63  80 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05