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000
FXUS64 KEWX 271104
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
604 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: 06Z observations place the cold front
responsible for our refreshing pattern shift predominantly to our
south in the BRO and CRP CWAs. The western side of the boundary has
been a bit more erratic, swinging from the south Texas Gulf coast
northwest to near Laredo and Faith Ranch prior to crossing the
international border and stalling along the higher terrain of the
Serranias del Burro Mountains. A very dry, continental air mass
continues to advect into the region behind the cold front, with most
stations in the CWA reporting dew points in the 40s at the current
hour. The lone exception to this is in the Rio Grande Plains, where
closer proximity to the frontal zone/moisture pooling along it
continues to hold dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s. A surface
high pressure ridge has been analyzed immediately to our north in
the Edwards Plateau, extending to the northeast into southeast
Oklahoma. Said area of pressure rises should continue to nudge south
through the period, shoving the frontal zone deeper into Mexico in
the process.

Remainder of the overnight: With very dry air and light surface
winds in place across the northeast CWA, expect to see low
temperatures impacted by radiational cooling. With current surface
observations showing temperatures in the upper 50s in spots across
this area, it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few locations fall
into the low 50s prior to sunrise. Best chances for these
temperatures will be across our higher elevation Hill Country
counties. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s can be expected
elsewhere, with a few mid 60s readings possible in the relatively
muggier Rio Grande Plains.

Today: Temperatures should rebound nicely this afternoon following
the cool start for some. Highs in the upper 80s and low 90s are
expected. With very dry air in place, relative humidity values will
fall into the 15 to 25 percent range by the late afternoon hours.
While winds will be a touch lower than yesterday, gusts could
approach and briefly exceed 20 MPH through sunset. This will support
a second consecutive day of elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions across the region. A Fire Danger Statement has been
issued through the early evening for portions of the Coastal Plains,
Hill Country, and I-35 corridor where winds/gusts will be the
highest. Individuals are encouraged to avoid activities leading to
the potential ignition and/or spread of wildfires in these
regions through the afternoon hours today.

Tonight through Wednesday: With clear skies and light to calm
surface winds in place due to the persisting pressure ridge to our
north, efficient radiational cooling is expected to influence low
temperatures once more tonight. The current forecast calls for
widespread low temperatures in the 50s, with warmer spots in the low
60s being found within the Rio Grande Plains and Austin/San Antonio
city centers. Widespread low 50s readings will be found in the
traditionally cooler Hill Country locations, where a few isolated
lows in the upper 40s can`t be entirely ruled out through daybreak
Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound nicely again tomorrow
afternoon, with another day of mid 80s-low 90s high temperatures
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

An weak or flat upper level ridge persists over our area later this
week through early next week. An upper level trough over the eastern
states lifts Hurricane Ian north over Florida into the southeastern
states with no direct impacts to our area. Surface high pressure
ridging and a dry airmass with well below seasonal normal PWs of 1/3
to 3/4 inch will get continuously reinforced through this weekend
with the larger scale flow around Ian. The dry airmass combined with
subsidence ensures no rain. High temperatures remain slightly above
average due to ample sunshine. Low temperatures trend well below
average as low dewpoints, clear skies, and light winds allow for
efficient radiational cooling at night. A few of the normally cooler
low lying spots in the Hill Country to along the Escarpment may
briefly fall into the upper 40s around sunrise. Some lower level
moisture returns next week as the surface ridge drifts off to the
east. Of note, the 27/00Z run of the GFS has the remnants and
associated moisture of an eastern Pacific tropical system move over
our area early to middle of next week. For now, will disregard this
as it is a new development and wait for model consistency and
consensus. Other models and previous runs of the GFS keep this
potential system out over the Pacific with no impact to our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

SKC and prevailing VFR categories currently being observed will
continue to persist through the duration of the 24-36 forecast period
at all aerodromes. Expect a general pattern of light to nearly calm
surface winds through the overnight hours, followed by occasionally
breezy east-northeast winds during the afternoons. Some high clouds
near FL250 may approach the region from the south nearing the end of
the forecast window, but have withheld any mentions in the 12Z
update.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  63  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  54  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  59  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  58  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             92  58  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  56  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  59  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  61  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           93  63  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Quigley