Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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105 FXUS64 KEWX 072022 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 222 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 142 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 There is a deep upper level trough with a cutoff low over Arizona with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface a warm front has moved to the northern border of our CWA from the coast. This front has brought a warmer and much moister airmass. Temperatures are around five degrees warmer and dewpoints are 25 to 30 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. With this moist flow and the warm front there are isolated showers across the area. To the northwest of our CWA there is a cold front approaching and this front will be the focus for convection tonight. This boundary will likely produce strong convection during the evening and overnight. The warm, moist airmass is conditionally unstable. It also has strong deep layer wind shear. As the cold front provides lift it will generate thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe. The most likely area for stronger storms will be Val Verde County and adjacent parts of the Edwards Plateau with lower chances farther east. The most likely threat will be large hail with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. The front will progress to the east through the night pushing rain chances with it. Friday the front will continue across our CWA and chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue. There will still be the possibility of strong to severe storms, but the threat is lower. The front should reach the eastern edge of our area by Friday evening and there will be lingering chances for rain across the eastern half of the CWA. We should start to see some cooler air move in behind the front Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 142 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 A few lingering showers are possible over the Coastal Plains early Saturday, but otherwise, expect cooler and drier conditions in the wake of the cold frontal passage. It won`t take long to see winds swing back around out of the south Saturday afternoon, as the push of cooler air behind the front won`t be particularly strong. We`ll continue to keep our focus on the Gulf and what Hurricane Rafael does, but at present, the forecast continues to trend south and west of the state and into northern Mexico by mid to late week via the NHC forecast cone. Mild and dry conditions are expected through the start of next week with highs in the 70s and 80s and mornings in the 50s and 60s through Wednesday. Beyond that, models start to diverge on what may happen with the Wednesday night through Thursday time frame. One one hand, the ECM has widespread showers and storms along a front as it pushes through the region, with a stronger and deeper trough dipping all the way south into the Panhandle, while the GFS has this trough far weaker and further north, but still sending a rather strong cold front into the region with cooler and dry conditions behind it. The GFS is dry with this frontal passage. For now, the forecast does not explicitly call for any rain for that time frame, but we have some time for things to come into better agreement as this next front is nearly a week away. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings prevail at all terminals this afternoon. We should see low end VFR ceilings for the rest of the afternoon. There are isolated showers across the area and they could affect any of the airports over the next few hours. Showers will be more likely by mid- afternoon, but should not change the flying category. Showers should end by the middle of the evening. Low ceilings will develop again by around midnight and eventually drop to IFR overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through during the day Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 68 83 58 75 / 30 60 50 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 83 58 75 / 30 60 50 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 86 60 79 / 20 50 40 10 Burnet Muni Airport 67 78 53 73 / 40 70 40 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 65 77 54 77 / 60 80 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 81 56 73 / 40 70 50 10 Hondo Muni Airport 69 80 58 78 / 30 60 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 84 58 76 / 30 50 50 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 84 61 75 / 30 60 60 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 83 61 78 / 30 50 40 10 Stinson Muni Airport 71 85 63 80 / 20 40 40 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...05