489
FXUS64 KEWX 291115
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
615 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly below average temperatures, especially highs.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms over most areas with
locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible.

- Light concentrations of Saharan dust aloft with no impact on
surface visibilities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The Subtropical Ridge over eastern Texas and an upper level trough
over northeastern Mexico will bring deeper moisture over our area
today. This allows for chances of showers and thunderstorms as far
west as the I-35 corridor due to heating and the seabreeze. The
trough weakens while the Ridge remains rather stationary on Monday.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms spread farther to the west into
portions of the Hill Country, as well as the Winter Garden region of
the Rio Grande. With PWs nearing 2 inches, cannot rule out locally
heavy downpours. Moisture loading may create gusty winds as the
storms collapse. Some Saharan dust moving over our area may inhibit
convective processes making for a lower confidence forecast with
respect to rain chances. While the skies overhead may become hazy
due to the dust aloft, surface visibilities will not be impacted.
Near average temperatures continue, except highs turn below average
across the Rio Grande Plains on Monday due to increased moisture and
clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The Subtropical Ridge remains off to our northeast and east while
upper level troughing lingers over Mexico through the period. There
are some indications that the seasonal Monsoon approaches from the
west mid to late week. Unseasonably moist PWs continue through much
of the period. Heating and seabreeze will force showers and
thunderstorms each day. The Monsoon provides additional moisture and
forcing for showers and thunderstorms, especially over the Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. As a result, higher chances for rain
will be across those areas. The threat of locally heavy downpours
and gusty winds continues. Below average high temperatures are
expected across most areas due to the increased moisture/clouds.
However, near average high temperatures are expected across eastern
areas closer to the Subtropical Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

MVFR ceilings continue to build over the I-35 corridor, but will be
relatively short-lived with VFR conditions returning mid to late
morning. Newest guidance has lesser chances for these ceilings to
reach DRT and now have prevailing VFR for this site. PROB30 groups
for thunderstorms have been introduced to all I-35 sites from 20-24Z
this afternoon, though any storm activity would likely be isolated
or widely scattered. Southeasterly wind continues today with gusty
conditions in the afternoon and evening. Areas of MVFR ceilings will
likely develop again early Monday morning, though there is less
confidence on exactly which sites would be impacted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  96  75 /  20   0  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  74  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  73  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            95  73  94  72 /  10   0  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  77  95  75 /   0  10  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  74  96  74 /  10   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             93  73  91  72 /  20  10  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  73  94  72 /  20  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  74  94  73 /  40  10  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  92  74 /  20  10  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           93  74  93  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27