645
FXUS64 KFWD 201945
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 121 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

Weak ridging aloft will continue to keep the weather conditions
quiet today and tonight. Temperatures today will range from the
upper 80s to mid 90s with gusty southerly winds in place. The
ongoing gusts will quickly subside around sunset as the near-
surface environment decouples from the faster winds aloft.

Tonight, expect low temperatures to be 10-15 degrees above normal
with a shroud of clouds moving in from the south. This cloud
cover will linger through the morning hours before dissipating
early tomorrow morning.

An incoming shortwave will nudge the ridge eastward tomorrow as a
dryline sharpens in the afternoon. Although the atmosphere will
remain fairly capped much of the day, there is a low potential a
storm or two develop along the dryline. The dryline should be
positioned just west of our area in the afternoon. If a storm does
develop, storms should shift northeast. With mixed-layer CAPE
over 3000 J/Kg and lapse rates near 8 C/km, any storm would be
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Again, the
potential for any storm developing is low but non-zero. Afternoon
temperatures tomorrow will remain fairly similar to today -- upper
80s in the east to mid 90s west.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Another shortwave disturbance will move across the region in the
wake of a departing impulse on Wednesday, ushering a cold front
south through the region. The exact southward extent of the front
is still uncertain as ensemble guidance has the front just barely
making it into our northwestern counties, while the NAM has it
essentially bisecting our region before stalling as its upper
level support races off to the northeast. Nonetheless, lift from
the front will allow for showers and storms, some strong to
severe, near and along the boundary as it moves south through the
afternoon hours. While an overall lull in storms is expected
overnight into Thursday morning, low chances for isolated to
scattered showers/storms will remain mainly in our north and
western counties. Another increase in storm activity/coverage is
expected Thursday afternoon and evening as another shortwave moves
across the Southern Plains and urges the stalled boundary
northward as a warm front. Best chances for precipitation continue
to remain across North Texas both days.

Strong to severe storms will once again be possible across a
majority of the region as 60-70+ dewpoints are expected region wide
alongside abundant instability and shear. At this time, large
hail and damaging winds look to be the main concern. Additionally,
PWAT values in excess of 1.5" (and in some areas in excess of 2")
will promote efficient rainfall producers during midweek. The
flooding threat will likely ramp up during this time, especially
in those areas that are still saturated.

With a dryline ever-present to our west, multiple impulses within
the overall mid-level flow will promote on-and-off isolated to
scattered storm chances through the rest of next weekend.
Currently, the bigger forecast concern for next weekend will be
the combination of heat and humidity on outdoor conditions. The
presence of the frontal boundary and rain chances will help to
keep temperatures slightly lower midweek, but temperatures will
rise back into the upper 80s to mid 90s by Friday. These
unseasonably warm temperatures, combined with humid 60-70 degree
dewpoints, will promote increased afternoon heat index values in
the mid 90s to around 105 Friday through Sunday. Caution will
need to be taken with regard to outdoor activities during the heat
of the day this next weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 121 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Gusty southerly winds this afternoon. MVFR stratus
returns tonight.

Gusty southerly winds with mostly clear skies are ongoing at this
time and will continue through the rest of this afternoon. Wind
speeds continue to range between 10-20 mph with some gusts
approaching 30 mph. As we approach sunset today, expect wind
speeds to gradually subside.

Tonight, a stratus intrusion is expected, reducing cloud heights
to around 1500 feet AGL. This intrusion will make its way
northward through the early morning Tuesday morning hours,
impacting all TAF sites across the region. The stratus deck is
expected to gradually disperse late in the morning with mid-level
clouds remaining in place.

There is a potential for an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow
afternoon west of the D10 airspace. Given the isolated nature of
the storms, impact to air traffic should remain minimal.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  90  76  89  71 /   0  10  10  40  50
Waco                73  92  75  89  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
Paris               69  87  75  86  68 /   0   5  10  50  60
Denton              73  89  74  88  68 /   0  10  10  50  50
McKinney            73  88  75  88  69 /   0  10  10  40  50
Dallas              74  91  76  90  71 /   0  10   5  40  40
Terrell             71  89  75  88  71 /   0   5   5  30  40
Corsicana           74  90  77  90  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
Temple              73  90  75  89  73 /   0   5   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       73  91  74  88  69 /   0  20  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$