Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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971 FXUS64 KFWD 210042 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 742 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/ A relatively tranquil night is in-store for North and Central Texas as shortwave ridging moves across the region. After the mid-level ridge moves east tomorrow morning, mid-level height falls will overspread the region in advance of a deeper trough over the Western CONUS, setting the stage for a few active weather days locally. Breezy south winds have developed in response to a deepening low near the panhandles. The low will continue to deepen overnight, resulting in gusty winds through the night. Gulf stratus will develop over the Hill Country before midnight and overspread most of our forecast area early Thursday morning. A combination of the breezy winds, cloud cover, and warm/moist advection will result in a mild and humid start to the day tomorrow. Tomorrow will be another hot and humid day with highs near 90 and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. There is a low chance of severe storms tomorrow afternoon across western North and Central Texas. A dryline over West Texas will be drawn east and stall near our westernmost counties in the mid to late afternoon. The warm sector will be under a strong capping inversion based around 5 kft agl. The cap will prevent storms from initiating for most of the day, with only a 20% chance of storms developing along the dryline after 4 PM. Although the chance of storms developing is low, any storm that develops would be in an environment capable of supporting large hail and a few damaging wind gusts. Storms are most likely to develop between about Graham and Cisco, an hour or two after the surface winds back into the boundary. As storms move east off the boundary, they will move into an increasingly capped atmosphere, particularly after sunset when surface-based convective inhibition increases. This should limit how far east the storms are able to travel and allow all storms to weaken/dissipate between 9 PM and midnight. For now, we have stopped the mention of thunderstorms near I-35/35W. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Another shortwave disturbance will move across the region in the wake of a departing impulse on Wednesday, ushering a cold front south through the region. The exact southward extent of the front is still uncertain as ensemble guidance has the front just barely making it into our northwestern counties, while the NAM has it essentially bisecting our region before stalling as its upper level support races off to the northeast. Nonetheless, lift from the front will allow for showers and storms, some strong to severe, near and along the boundary as it moves south through the afternoon hours. While an overall lull in storms is expected overnight into Thursday morning, low chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain mainly in our north and western counties. Another increase in storm activity/coverage is expected Thursday afternoon and evening as another shortwave moves across the Southern Plains and urges the stalled boundary northward as a warm front. Best chances for precipitation continue to remain across North Texas both days. Strong to severe storms will once again be possible across a majority of the region as 60-70+ dewpoints are expected region wide alongside abundant instability and shear. At this time, large hail and damaging winds look to be the main concern. Additionally, PWAT values in excess of 1.5" (and in some areas in excess of 2") will promote efficient rainfall producers during midweek. The flooding threat will likely ramp up during this time, especially in those areas that are still saturated. With a dryline ever-present to our west, multiple impulses within the overall mid-level flow will promote on-and-off isolated to scattered storm chances through the rest of next weekend. Currently, the bigger forecast concern for next weekend will be the combination of heat and humidity on outdoor conditions. The presence of the frontal boundary and rain chances will help to keep temperatures slightly lower midweek, but temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s to mid 90s by Friday. These unseasonably warm temperatures, combined with humid 60-70 degree dewpoints, will promote increased afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s to around 105 Friday through Sunday. Caution will need to be taken with regard to outdoor activities during the heat of the day this next weekend. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR and gusty south flow will continue through the evening. MVFR to IFR stratus will develop over the Hill Country and Southeast Texas this evening, overspreading all of our TAF terminals before sunrise tomorrow. Ceiling heights should start near 1000 ft AGL with a few hours of IFR possible at ACT and other Central Texas airports. Ceiling heights should slowly rise through the morning, improving to VFR between 16-19Z for most. South flow 12-16 kts with gusts around 22 kts is expected tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms may develop west of D10 between 22-00Z tomorrow. If storms are able to develop, they would move E and encroach on the D10 terminals between 01-03Z. Since the chance of storms is only around 20%, we have opted to not include VCTS in the TAFs...but we will have to keep a close eye on this potential over the next 24 hours. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 89 76 89 71 / 0 5 10 40 50 Waco 74 89 76 89 74 / 0 0 5 20 20 Paris 69 86 75 86 68 / 0 5 10 50 60 Denton 74 88 73 88 68 / 0 10 20 50 50 McKinney 74 86 75 88 69 / 0 5 10 40 50 Dallas 75 89 76 90 71 / 0 5 10 40 40 Terrell 72 87 75 88 71 / 0 5 10 30 40 Corsicana 74 89 76 90 74 / 0 0 5 20 20 Temple 74 89 75 89 73 / 0 0 5 20 20 Mineral Wells 73 90 73 88 69 / 0 10 20 50 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$