664
FXUS64 KFWD 171034
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 432 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/
Update:
Convection overnight could not overcome the stable air currently
in place across North and Central Texas. We could still see
additional showers and storms later today associated with the
exiting shortwave. The best storm chances will remain near the Red
River.

We will go ahead and cancel the Flood Watch that was in effect
until 7 AM and leave the remainder of the forecast largely
unchanged outside of some minor hourly grid adjustments.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Friday Night/

After a brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms this
evening, additional showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
to move in from the west overnight. This activity will be moving
into relatively stable air currently across North and Central
Texas. Therefore, we don`t anticipate much in the way of severe
weather, but we can`t rule out a strong storm with gusty winds or
small hail. We will maintain the Flood Watch through the night,
but most of the rain associated with the activity overnight will
likely not cause too many additional flooding problems.

Extensive clouds and patchy fog overnight will keep temperatures
generally in the 60s. The only exception will be across the far
west where clouds will partially clear, allowing for lows to fall
into the upper 50s.

Friday will be a much less active day than today with most
locations not seeing any additional rainfall. However, we will
maintain some low chance PoPs (20%-40%) generally north of I-20
due to the passage of a trailing piece of shortwave energy.

Although clouds will linger for part of the day Friday, there
will still be some afternoon sun, allowing temperatures to warm
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will steadily fall
after sunset Friday under a mostly clear sky. The clearing sky and
wet ground will result in patchy fog, especially overnight through
Saturday morning.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

After our period of unsettled weather, a rain-free interlude will
begin this weekend with temperatures and humidity steadily
increasing into early next week. A cold front may approach during
the middle of the upcoming week, increasing cloud cover and
reintroducing rain chances, but seasonally warm temperatures will
prevail.

The storm system that doused the region yesterday will finally
pass east of our meridian Friday night, being replaced by ridging
aloft. Positive mid-level height anomalies will prevail into next
week, pushing daytime temperatures into the 90s. Combined with
rich Gulf moisture, this weekend will remind us that the Texas
summer is right around the corner. The heat and humidity will
culminate on Tuesday when heat index values will top 100 in many
locations.

The rather strong early-season subtropical ridging over Mexico
that will nose into the Lone Star State will keep the spring
storm tracks to our north. However, a midweek shortwave emerging
from the Rockies and transiting the Central Plains will manage to
deamplify the ridge a bit, potentially sending a cold front in our
direction. There is little agreement as to how far equatorward
the boundary will penetrate, the eventual evolution perhaps
governed by its associated convection. In any event, its proximity
should by sufficient to return rain/storm chances to the
forecast. However, the current forecast will maintain the
plurality of southerly winds and seasonally warm temperatures
throughout the upcoming workweek.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Stratus has finally developed across portions of North and
Central Texas early this morning along with patchy fog. Recent
guidance is optimistic, keeping ceilings above 1000 ft, and in
many cases above 3000 ft. We are inclined to believe that a bit of
daytime heating through the near saturated boundary layer will
result in temporary MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites, likely in the
13Z to 16Z time frame. Some visibility restrictions between 3 and
5 miles are also possible. By late morning, any low ceilings
should lift above 3000 ft, eventually scattering during the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected this evening but some
visibility restrictions due to patchy mist and fog will be
possible again early Saturday morning, especially in Waco.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions
of North and East Texas this afternoon and evening. Coverage will
be too limited to include in this TAF package.

A light west to northwest wind will prevail for much of the day,
becoming southwest to south late in the afternoon. Wind speeds
will stay below 10 knots through Saturday morning.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  67  91  70  92 /  20  10   5   0   0
Waco                81  66  88  69  90 /   5  10   5   0   0
Paris               81  63  87  65  90 /  40  20   5   0   0
Denton              81  62  89  68  92 /  30  10   0   0   0
McKinney            81  63  88  68  90 /  30  20   5   0   0
Dallas              84  66  92  70  93 /  20  10   5   0   0
Terrell             82  64  87  67  90 /  20  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           82  66  89  70  92 /  10  10   5   0   0
Temple              82  65  89  68  90 /   5  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       81  63  90  68  92 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$