Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
882 FXUS63 KGLD 191139 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 539 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. - Better chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska. - Temperatures warming up on Thursday and Friday with low chances for evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to gradually expand across the area through the overnight hours. Appears to be tied to the leading edge of weak isentropic life overspreading the area from the south, with perhaps some weak help from a perturbation in the southwest flow aloft. Either way, synoptic scale lift is broad and weak. MUCAPE is around 500-1000 j/kg with some pockets of higher amounts, with no appreciable increase forecast through today. So, with the cool conditions and limited instability not expecting severe storms. The signals for heavy rain have moved far to the south of the area near the surface front, so no longer anticipating flooding and cancelled the watch. Best chances for showers will shift into far southwest area by late morning, then gradually spread eastward again this afternoon. Coverage will be scattered at best. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Tonight, expect an increase precipitation chances this evening in northeast Colorado and the Tri-border area, then moving into southwest Nebraska overnight with a shortwave trough moving out of Colorado and the front lifting north as a warm front also providing lift. Precipitation chances should end by 12z as it continues to move out to the north. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s. For Thursday, southwest flow continues around the strong ridge over the eastern CONUS. Main storm track with weak shortwaves rotating around it will be from the Colorado Front Range into western Nebraska. The northwest and northern forecast area, Yuma County into southwest Nebraska, may get clipped by some of these showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. However, severe storms are not anticipated as the marginal risk stays to the northwest. Also expecting breezy to windy conditions to develop Thursday afternoon along the Kansas and Colorado border area with gusts of up to 40 mph through the early evening before diminishing. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 80s with plenty of sun, and lows Thursday night in the 60s. For Friday, the upper ridge to the east does show some signs of weakening over the area as a shortwave trough comes out of the central Rockies in the afternoon and evening. So may see slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms with that feature Friday night, with best chances north of Interstate 70 including southwest Nebraska. Currently not outlooked for severe thunderstorms due to weak instability. Appears that a weak surface cold front will sag into the area late Friday night, but have little impact other than a wind shift. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows Friday night in the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 From the latest GFS/ECMWF, a broad, elongated 500mb ridge will be stretched across the southern portion of the country, allowing for zonal flow aloft to persist through the upcoming weekend. Going into next week, this ridge will amplify some into the central Rockies, shifting the flow aloft to more northwesterly through midweek. Several shortwaves are expected to move across the northern periphery of this ridge and across the CWA. These will mainly occur during the afternoon and evening hours. The shortwaves will interact with surface boundaries/fronts coming off the Rockies, allowing for mainly 15-30% chances for storms. Highest chance on Tuesday. Hot conditions are expected each day with 850mb temps over the weekend in the mid to upper 20s, but going into the Mon-Wed timeframe, 850 temps reach well into the 30s each day. GFS soundings around the 00z timeframe each day show inverted-v profiles and high DCape values, suggesting wind threats with storms could be probable. The positioning of the boundaries/troughs each afternoon are allowing for a E/SE surface flow into the CWA, especially for KS/NE. This will allow for increased moisture/PW values over an inch, especially next week. For temps, the region will be looking at well above normal conditions each day. For the upcoming weekend, daytime highs will range mainly in the 90s. A few spots in northeast Colorado may only reach the upper 80s. Going into next week, hot conditions will continue with highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 90s to lower 100s, with slightly cooler conditions wednesday with 90s. Each day the forecasted highs will be several degrees below records. Lows will range mainly in the 60s, with some locales east of Highway 25 on Monday/Tuesday nights around 70F. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 535 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Both KGLD and KMCK will start VFR this morning. However, low clouds are moving in from the south and KGLD will have IFR ceilings by mid morning and then through the remainder of the TAF period. At KMCK, lower ceilings will not arrive until sometime this evening before going IFR. There will be scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms in the region through the entire period, with low confidence in timing any associated brief reductions in visibility or ceiling at either terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...024