384
FXUS65 KPIH 031810
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1210 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms through Thursday afternoon as low
  pressure passes to our north

- Gusty winds through tomorrow afternoon, strongest tonight and
  Thursday morning

- Increasing potential for showers and storms next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An area of low pressure rushes through in the next 24 hours. The
bulk of this storm will pass north of us, but will bring a few
showers and storms mainly across the central mountains and along
the Montana border. We did include a 10-15% chance elsewhere as
it does look like virga and sprinkles are possible, and wanting
to something to reflect even something this minimal due to
impacts on the fire side of the forecast. There is still a
10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph with any development through
this evening. At the moment, any potential for thunderstorms is
10-15% and mainly north of Challis and the Pahsimeroi through
evening, and along the Montana border tomorrow. We will see
shower potential continuing overnight across portions of the
central mountains, then shifting into the eastern highlands
(especially along the Montana border) through tomorrow
afternoon. Outside of any type of showers or virga, there will
be some gusty winds. The strongest gusts (25-35 mph) are
forecast across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and surrounding
terrain. We will issue a LAKE WIND ADVISORY for American Falls
Reservoir starting mid morning tomorrow and through the
afternoon. Starting Friday and through the weekend, it will be
breezy at times across portions of central and eastern Idaho.
There is an initial low that swings inland over the weekend, and
appears to look similar to the low coming through now. This
will help kick start the wind out ahead of it and as it passes.
Any potential issues with showers or storms again looks
confined to northern areas Saturday night and Sunday, but we
wouldn`t be surprised to see issues with virga and gusty winds
outside of those locations. After that, a closed low moves
inland and takes a bit for it to clear the western states based
on current forecasts and trends. We will be dealing with one or
more rounds of showers and thunderstorms until that storm passes
into the Plains. This will continue to keep breezy conditions
in the forecast. Looking at temperatures, we should be in the
70s and 80s for highs except for Thursday and Sunday, where
highs drop back into the 70s areawide for valley locations. We
might even see a few 90s creep into the picture especially
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions continue across East Idaho today. Mid level
convective development is expected this afternoon and early
evening associated with shortwave passing through the region.
There is a low confidence potential for a very weak shower at
SUN, BYI, and PIH. Have maintained VCSH at the first two, and
added for PIH. Most likely scenario is going to be VIRGA and
gusty winds. Confidence is even lower at IDA and DIJ so will
maintain dry forecast. Have started to push winds up for mid to
late morning Thursday, with gusts moving into 20-25kt territory.
Gusts should increase to 25-30kts for the afternoon, with
westerly cross winds expected for SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A shortwave trough is moving through Eastern Idaho late today into
tomorrow and will bring nearly RED FLAG WARNING conditions to much
of the area, especially in south-central Idaho today and tomorrow.
Today, the low RHs are there (10-15 percent) along with about a 10
percent chance of a dry thunderstorm, and wind gusts ranging from 20-
25 mph and nearing 35 mph on ridgetops. Wind gusts will be a
bit stronger on Thursday, but isolated thunderstorm chances will
be lower and afternoon min RHs will increase ever so slightly.
Given the coordination done on the day shift yesterday, have not
issued any RED FLAG WARNINGS at this point, but know we are
VERY close to those conditions today, especially around the
Summit Creek Fire area. We will be hot, dry, and windy again on
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...AMM