Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 212311 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 711 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will intensify off the Delmarva coast this evening, before gradually pushing well off to the northeast later tonight. High pressure over the midwest will gradually build into the area Thursday and Friday. Low pressure moves east from the mid Mississippi Valley Saturday and tracks through the Carolinas Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Current wv imagery depicts upper level low pressure pushing across SE VA, with moisture wrapping back toward the Delmarva. Surface low pressure is nearly stationary off the Delmarva coast, and should remain so for about the next 6 hours. Rain has been slow to change to snow over the Ern Shore, but should become all snow rather quickly as pcpn rates increase over the next few hours. Snowfall amounts for Dorchester should generally be 3-5", with 2-4" toward SBY and 1-2" closer to the coast and into nrn Accomack county. An additional 1-2" of snow is possible over the Nrn Neck. Total snowfall has ranged from 3-6" for N-central VA and interior portions of the Nrn Neck, with 2-4" in the RIC metro, and 1- 2" S of the RIC metro, and little to no accumulation farther S and SE. Drier air should quickly arrive W of the Bay this evening with any lingering light snow (or rain, rain/snow mix) quickly ending. Snow should continue over the Ern Shore through midnight to 2 am, with rates decreasing later this evening. Temperatures remain in the low 30s where snow is falling, with mid/upper 30s elsewhere. Temperatures will be steady this evening, and then gradually fall overnight with lows in the mid 20s NW to the low 30s E. Partial clearing is possible late over wrn portions of the area. Some refreezing is possible with lows below freezing late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The flow aloft remains NW Thursday and Friday as an upper trough persists over Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, Surface high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus. A shortwave trough pushes across the Carolinas Thursday with another shortwave trough clipping the nrn Mid-Atlantic Friday. This will result in variably cloudy conditions Thursday and Friday, with mainly mostly clear conditions Thursday night. This will keep temperatures well below normal for late March. Highs Thursday range from the mid to upper 40s N to around 50 F to the lower 50s over srn VA and NE NC (possibly cooler over N-central VA, the Nrn Neck, and MD Ern Shore with melting snow). Lows Thursday night range from the mid 20s to low 30s, with highs Friday in the mid-upper 40s N to lower 50s S. A 1040mb surface high in vicinity of Hudson Bay will build into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night. This will allow lows to once again fall into the mid 20s NW to low 30s SE under a mostly clear sky. The high remain anchored well N of the region Saturday. One shortwave trough is progged to drop across New England Saturday, as another trough pushes through the mid-Mississippi Valley toward the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures will be tricky Saturday as statistical guidance supports highs in the mid 40s to around 50, while low-level thicknesses support highs in the low/mid 40s. Have opted to go with highs in the mid 40s W where clouds should increase and thicken quicker, and upper 40s to near 50F E. The 21/12z ECMWF is slower than the NAM/GFS and have followed closer to the ECMWF. Likely PoPs arrive in the far SW counties by aftn, bordered by 20-40% PoPs from the NW Piedmont through S-central VA and interior NE NC. Temperatures potentially fall into the upper 30s to low 40s once pcpn arrives with dewpoints in the mid/upper 20s. Therefore, a rain/snow (possibly sleet) mix has been included. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions averaging below normal through the extended forecast period...though moderation in temperatures likely by mid next week. Deep/anomalous trough aloft hangs near/just off the E coast Sat night into Tue before shifting E and a high amplitude upper level ridge builds into the region. Lo pres exits off the NC coast by late Sat night...then hi pres gradually builds S from SE Canada Sun-Tue. Used a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/WPC wrt pcpn timing Sat night (RA and/or SN winding down central/S and SE)...then dry and clearing wx for much of Sun through Tue. By Wed...lo pres to track through the Great Lakes states pushing some moisture into the mid-Atlantic region. Brought increasing clouds into the local area Wed...but left PoPs aob 10%. Lows Sat night from around 30F NNW to the m-u30s along coastal SE VA- NE NC. Highs Sun in the l-m40s (gusty NNE winds...esp at the coast will make it feeling colder). Lows Sun night in the u20s W to the m- u30s at the coast. Highs Mon in the m40s at the coast...u40s-around 50F inland. Lows Mon night in the u20s W to the m-u30s at the coast. Highs Tue in the u40s at the coast to the m50s inland. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s at the coast to the 60-65F inland. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure is located off the Delmarva coast as of 20Z. IFR/LIFR conditions prevail at all terminals with some improvement to MVFR possible at ECG/RIC later this aftn. Rain and snow will taper off late this aftn at most sites, with snow continuing at SBY through 04-06z. A NW wind will average 8-12kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Drier conditions arrive later tonight, with dry and VFR conditions to prevail Thursday and Friday. Low pressure approaches from the W late Saturday, with the potential for sub-VFR flying conditions Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns Monday. && .MARINE... Have cancelled the Gale warning for the two nrn coastal zns and now have a SCA for these zns thru 7 am Fri. Low pressure off the nrn Mid Atlc coast will track NE off the NJ and New England coasts tonight into Thu. Low pressure moves away toward/into the nrn Atlc late Thu thru Fri. NW winds 15 to 25 kt will result in SCA`s in effect for all the waters thru at least Thu aftn, with seas remaining up near 5 ft over the coastal waters into Fri morning. High pressure finally builds into and over the area for later Fri into Sat morning, before another low pressure system impacts the waters late Sat into Sun morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect along the ocean side of the Lower Eastern Shore and Bay side of the VA Eastern Shore, as well as areas of the Tidewater up through the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula. Increased swell energy in the wake of a series of developing low pressure areas will allow for elevated water levels and the potential for some minor flooding. Guidance continues to indicate tide levels of 1 to 2 feet above normal. Issued coastal flood statements for a few other areas where levels are expected to be within a half foot of minor flooding. && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ has returned to service after its first Service Life Extension Project upgrade. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ024- 025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. Winter Storm Warning until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ084>086-093-095>097-523>525. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.