Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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777
FXUS63 KEAX 182318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 237 PM CDT WED APR 18 2018

Gusty northwesterly winds should begin to diminish near sunset as
mixing decreases and a tightened pressure gradient in the wake of
this morning`s cold frontal passage relaxes. The resulting calmer
winds and clearing skies overnight will set the stage for
widespread frost early Thursday morning. Sensitive vegetation will
need to be protected as surface temps dip to near freezing for
areas south of the Missouri River tonight, with sub-freezing
temperatures expected north.

Thursday high temps will rebound slightly with a return of
insolation, though persistent cold advection will maintain the
cooler trend with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 50s. By
late Thursday into Friday morning, an upstream ridging pattern
will advect overhead, while at the surface, weak warm advection
will boost temps into the low 60s Friday afternoon. The overhead
pattern will then give way to a deepening upper low crossing into
the Central and Southern Plains Friday night. While the attendant
surface low will remain well south of the forecast area, a low
level jet underneath downstream PVA could result in light rain
showers Saturday morning and afternoon, mainly south of I-70.
Ample dry air in the low levels should help to evaporate much of
this, though still cannot rule out periods of light rain
throughout Saturday, perhaps into Sunday morning as well. Dry
conditions will return by the late weekend into the early work
week. This looks to be brief, however, as a shortwave trough clips
the area with resulting precipitation chances possible Tuesday.
The overall temperature trend will reflect cooler than normal
conditions until Monday. At that time, a more prolonged period of
seasonal temperatures will persist heading into the mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT WED APR 18 2018

The period will start off with VFR ceilings and a NW wind but as a
secondary cold front approaches it will cool the lower levels down
to saturation overnight to develop a MVFR ceiling. This should be
short lived and mostly along the boundary as it passes through,
but a some guidance does try to keep these ceilings around through
mid morning. So there is some uncertainty on when VFR conditions
will return. Winds will shift to the north on the backside of the
front with some drier air.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Barham



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