229
FXUS64 KEWX 100623
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over the
  southern Edwards Plateau into western Hill Country late this
  afternoon into tonight; all severe hazards are possible.

- The severe weather risk decreases to level 1 to 2 farther east
  towards the I-35 corridor tonight; main severe hazards will be
  large hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 1 to 2 risk for locally heavy rainfall and
  isolated flash flooding across the southern Edwards Plateau and
  western Hill Country tonight.

- Drier weather pattern beyond Wednesday morning; slightly cooler
  midweek behind Pacific front then warmer into and through the
  weekend.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

An upper low approaching from the west and a Pacific moisture plume
moving into TX will keep the radar echoes active today, with strong
storms to develop over West Texas by this afternoon. A few runs of
rapid refresh hinted at a strong storm or two leaking out of Mexico
into the Rio Grande Plains earlier in the day, but we think the
persistent mid clouds and light showery weather should hold the
convective temperatures in check until later in the evening. Still,
an isolated elevated clap of thunder is reasonable to expect.
Rainfall amounts from these low "chance" category PoPs should be
generally below 1/10 inch.

Our PoPs are perhaps a bit generous for Val Verde county as most of
the better resolution model data keeps the cap in place through 00Z.
Shortly afterwards there could be explosive development with all
severe weather types becoming possible from supercell activity
initially, and then some bowing segments as we get later into the
evening. This favorable pattern for the bowing segments means that
that a potential for brief tornadoes could last in to the late night
hours as storms remain intense over the Hill Country and Rio Grande
Plains. Finally, after 3-4 AM or so we should expect to see weaker
inflow support for the squall, and we continue to expect a weakened
squall to reach the metro cities with a low end severe threat for
hail and damaging winds. There is an interesting trend to be
monitored, however, as the model run trends have shown a brief re-
deepening of the upper low as it crosses TX. This could potentially
rekindle some new discrete cell development near the leading edge,
so we certainly woouldn`t want to downplay the severe threat over
the I-35 Corridor just because it`s not as severe weather prone as
the Edwards Plateau Counties are expected to be.

Model trends have been remarkably consistent on the rain threat area
being maintained over the Edwards Plateau counties and partially
into the Hill Country. We might anticipate a couple areas where some
severe discrete cells moved slow enough that the developing line
trained a second round of heavy rain, to warrant a Flash Flood
Warning. Most rainfall amounts shown in the QPF reflect a strong
squall line that slowly picks up forward speed while weakening as it
moved toward the I-35 Corridor. With the past rain event only hitting
in isolated spots, run-off issues should be minor in the most
populated areas. The southern Counties may have gotten the best deal
on rainfall amounts with the past system, this system will hold the
higher totals north, while there could be some areas along our
southern forecast border that could miss out entirely.

A few strong storms are suggested to be possible near the Highway 77
Corridor counties as daytime heating increases activity by midday.
However, the upper low track has evolved to pass closer to our
forecast area as a deeper system, and that will probably deliver a
faster mix-down of westerly winds at the bottom of the low. That
being the case, we may need to consider cooler afternoon highs for
Wednesday afternoon with more areas struggling to get out of the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The remainder of the 7-day forecast leaves no opportunity for rain.
Seasonably cool weather is lined up for Wednesday night through
Friday morning, before the mid-level height fields recover to leave
a flat zonal pattern over TX. There is dry ridging over Mexico so
the warm temperatures this weekend will not come with the humidity
seen over the past week. The hot and dry weekend weather will end
with a front by Sunday night, leading to more near normal
temperatures for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

MVFR flying conditions will deteriorate to IFR overnight into early
Tuesday morning with patchy LIFR/VLIFR possible. The best chances of
these poor conditions will be at KSAT where TEMPOs are maintained.
Then, conditions improve to VFR during the afternoon and deteriorate
again Tuesday night. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are possible overnight through
Tuesday and have introduced VCSH mention. Then, a band of SHRA/TSRA
is expected late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Have
introduced PROB30s at KDRT for 10/21-11/03Z and at the I-35 sites
for 11/08-14Z. S to SE winds prevail at 5 to 15 KTs with a few gusts
to 25 KTs. Winds will shift to NW with passage of the band.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  64  81  49 /  40  80  60  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  62  81  49 /  40  80  60  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  63  82  49 /  30  70  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            80  61  79  47 /  40  90  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  58  86  53 /  60  90   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  61  79  47 /  40  80  60  20
Hondo Muni Airport             84  59  82  49 /  40  80  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  63  82  49 /  30  70  60  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  67  79  51 /  10  50  80  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  64  82  51 /  40  80  40  10
Stinson Muni Airport           85  65  83  52 /  30  70  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04