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000
FXUS64 KEWX 301117
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Dry conditions continue through the short term forecast under clear
skies. Relatively large diurnal swings in temperatures will also
continue, with below average lows and near to above average highs.
Slightly drier air is forecast to backdoor into the eastern and
central CWA late this afternoon into Saturday morning. This will
lead to Saturday`s morning low temperatures cooler than this morning
across central and eastern areas. Continued low afternoon relative
humidity will lead to elevated fire weather conditions today and
Saturday, however relatively weak winds will preclude any fire
danger statement.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Synopsis: Described in previous forecast cycles, the long term
period will begin with the region under the influence of a longwave
500 mb ridge axis extending from the Big Bend into the Western Great
Lakes. The feature should begin to break down through the day on
Monday, as closed mid to upper level lows centered over the Grand
Tetons and mid-Atlantic states begin to open up and become absorbed
into the mean flow. Global ensembles have begun to converge on a
more northeastern track of the current Tropical Storm Orlene through
Monday morning, bringing it onshore the Mexican Pacific coast
through Monday afternoon and evening. Decay of the disturbance will
proceed rapidly over the western Sierra Madre Mountains, though some
of the tropical system`s upper level outflow will likely drift
across the region through this portion of the long term forecast
period. Low level winds will continue to trend east-northeasterly
through the middle portions of next week, keeping dry, continental
air entrenched over the CWA. Trajectories will turn southeasterly
moving into the later portions of the week as the low level mass
field begins to respond to a cold front impinging on the Southern
Plains.

Saturday Night: Expect the coolest temperatures of the long term
period Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Efficient
radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall into the 50s
outside of the Rio Grande Plains, with lower 50s and a few upper 40s
being possible across portions of Hill Country and to the east of I-
35.

Sunday through Monday: In contrast to the largely clear skies we`ve
seen this week, there should be noticeably higher amounts of cloud
coverage through this portion of the long term as upper level
moisture connected to Orlene`s outflow streams across the region.
Can thus begin to confidently say that high temperatures will likely
be a degree or two cooler areawide, with widespread highs in the 80s
likely. Rain-free conditions will continue to persist given the very
dry low level air mass in place across the region.

Remainder of the period: Humidity should begin to tick upward as
winds turn southeasterly Tuesday afternoon in response to the cold
front advancing through the Central and Southern Plains. Dew point
readings, which will be in the 30s and 40s at the beginning of the
week, should climb into the 50s and low 60s through Thursday
afternoon. It will thus feel a touch muggier for some following the
relatively prolonged residence time of the dry, continental airmass
that has established itself across the area. The cold front`s
precise evolution and southward progression through the end of next
week remains a source of considerable uncertainty, and will be
addressed in later forecast cycles as trends become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Winds
are currently calm to variable at less than 5KT overnight, and
forecast to becomE become NE to E around 4-8KT at SAT/AUS and SE at
DRT after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  54  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  63  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  52  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  58  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           92  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...Quigley
Aviation...76