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000
FXUS64 KEWX 141757 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area sites for this forecast
cycle. Northeast to east wind flow is forecast to dominate the AUS
and SAT terminals through this evening before becoming light and
variable late tonight into Tuesday morning. For DRT, a southerly
flow is expected through late this afternoon. An outflow boundary
approaching the northern portion of Val Verde County is expected to
push over KDRT later this evening and shifting the winds from the
southeast to the north. A complex of storms over the San Angelo area
will continue to push to the southwest and probably affecting the
northwest part of Val Verde County but staying away from KDRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/

AVIATION...
All sites VFR with light and variable winds. Little change to the
forecast. DRT could get a shower in the vicinity this afternoon with
an approaching MCV from the north, but chances were low enough to
leave out for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Another hot day, but it`s Summer, so I`ll allow it. Temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s with the Rio Grande Plains will reach the
arbitrary number of 100 degrees plus. Most of the area will see a
dry forecast, but there is a low chance for some showers to peek
through into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. An MCV in the
northerly flow will move from North Texas down into the Big Country
continue southwest. The convective models have picked up on, and
mostly agree, with some convection associated with this feature. For
now, have kept a slight chance for mostly Val Verde and Edwards
Counties. There is also a low chance some outflows could kick up
some showers in the Hill Country, but chance remains too low mention
in the forecast for now. Eastern counties will also carry at least
slight chances this afternoon. Tomorrow might hold a little better
chances for showers east of I-35 as the upper ridge that has held on
shifts slightly west. For the rest of region, hot, humid and rain-
free.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Subtropical Ridge remains centered near and over the Four Corners
region mid to late week while extending to over Texas. While the
airmass will generally be subsident, solar heating may be sufficient
to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms. Will maintain the
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
hours along the US 77 corridor to near the Coastal Plains where
subsidence will be a little weaker and moisture a little deeper.
However, cannot rule out a rogue shower or thunderstorm elsewhere.

Subtropical Ridge centers are along the California/Baja California
border region and over Cuba with a shear axis or upper level trough
in between over the western Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. There
remains a potential for tropical cyclone development over the Bay of
Campeche this week with the most recent National Hurricane Center
outlook indicating a 50 percent chance. Models are trending toward a
northerly movement with passage to the east of our area during the
weekend, however, they lack consistency and consensus on intensity
and exact movement. Any impacts to South Central Texas remain
uncertain. However, will maintain low chances of showers and
thunderstorms for areas along and east of I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  73  94  74 /  10  10  -   10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  95  72  94  74 /  10  20  -   10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  73  94  74 /  10  10  -   10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  72  94  72 /  -   -    0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  77  98  77 /  10  10  -   -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  73  93  73 /  -   10  -   -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  94  73  93  72 /  10  10  -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  73  94  74 /  10  10  -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  74  95  75 /  10  30  -   10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  74  93  74 /  10  10  -   10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  75  95  75 /  10  10  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...17
Long-Term...Hampshire
Decision Support...KCW