520
FXUS64 KEWX 142017
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
317 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Extreme Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Remain in Effect through 9 PM

- New Heat Advisory issued for parts of South Central Texas for
  Thursday

The hot weather conditions continue across the local area with highs
in the upper 90s and up to 104 degrees as of 2 PM. An Extreme Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory products are in effect through 9 PM this
evening. Today is likely the hottest day of the week associated to
this early heat wave that began yesterday. New daily and month
record highs are in store for today. See the CLI products when they
come out around 440 PM and 540 PM. The hottest high temperatures
will be recorded along the Rio Grande to the west of the dryline
that extends from around Llano to Barksdale to Comstock as of 2 PM.
Otherwise, hot and mostly dry for late this afternoon into the
evening continuing into Thursday morning. We do have a slight chance
for showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Burnet and
Llano area late afternoon and evening and over parts of the southern
Edwards Plate and Val Verde County this evening into the overnight
period. Our confidence is low on these chances as hires models
suggest different outcomes.

Overnight lows range from the lower to upper 70s with increased
moisture spreading across the local area through the period. Mostly
cloudy skies are expected during the morning commute with even some
patchy fog across the Coastal Plains. Mostly cloudy skies turn to
partly cloudy mid to late morning into the afternoon with the heat
taking over the local area. High temperatures are forecasted to hit
upper 90s to 104 across most areas. Can`t rule out a few places
reaching 105 or so. Due to elevated temperatures reaching heat
advisory criteria, a new Heat Advisory has been issued for the
southern part of South Central Texas from 1 PM to 8 PM Thursday.
Highest air temperatures are expected to reach the 104 mark while
heat index values could reach 108 to 109 range.

Cloud begins to increase as the evening progresses with lows in the
70s under a moist southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

- Early season heatwave continues into the weekend with additional
  temperature records in jeopardy of being broken.

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts through the upcoming weekend.

The weather pattern for the reminder of this week into the middle of
next week remains rather unchanged characterized by a broad, subtropical
ridge axis over Mexico into the Gulf with persistent southwesterly
flow aloft over south central Texas. We will keep the forecast dry
through Friday for all areas and will show a low chance for isolated
showers and storms across the Hill Country and southern Edwards
Plateau Saturday as the dryline temporarily surges eastward.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week
with high temperatures records likely to be tied or broken.

As we head into early next week, an upper level trough axis to our
west begins to deepen and some weak disturbances move into the
region. We may see an uptick in rain chances across the Hill Country
into the I-35 corridor, but prefer to keep rain chances limited to
30% as timing of these disturbances is likely to change. Toward the
end of the forecast period, a couple of the global models show a cold
front moving in from the north. Overall confidence is low, but this
may bring some temporary relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecasted for the I-35 terminals through the
overnight period. MVFR cigs return around 08Z Thurs for KAUS, KSAT
and KSSF. VFR conditions come back at or shortly after 14Z Thurs for
the I-35 sites. KDRT stays VFR through the forecast period. Southerly
winds 5 to 10 knots are expected to dominate through the forecast
time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Elevated fire weather concerns are in place mainly across the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau for the rest of this afternoon
and early evening due to low relative humidity. Some elevated fire
weather conditions are possible across the Rio Grande plains and
southern Edwards Plateau through Friday due to low afternoon relative
humidity values below 20%.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE May 13 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)

         WED       THU       FRI       SAT
        05/14     05/15     05/16     05/17
------------------------------------------------------
AUS    96/2003   96/2003   97/2018*  97/2018
ATT    97/2022   98/1925   99/2022*  99/2022
SAT    97/2022*  98/2022   97/2022* 100/2022
DRT   103/2003  102/2022  107/2013  105/2013

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
-------------------------------
AUS   102 ... set on 05/07/1998
ATT   104 ... set on 05/24/1925
SAT   104 ... set on 05/31/2004
DRT   112 ... set on 05/26/2024

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73 100  75  99 /   0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72 101  74 100 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  98  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 106  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  98  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71 102  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73 104  76 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-
Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-
Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-
Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-
Wilson-Zavala.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for De Witt-Fayette-
Lavaca-Lee.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for Atascosa-Bexar-
Frio-Medina-Uvalde-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...17