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000
FXUS64 KEWX 032334
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...
VFR conditions will prevail for the most part during the TAF period,
with the exception of a low chance of stratus between 10Z-13Z
producing MVFR ceilings in an area around SAT-HDO-ECU-ERV. Otherwise,
SE winds diminishing after sunset. A SW wind around 5-10KT is
forecast to develop after sunrise at SAT/AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Subtropical ridge that has been in place over the state the last few
days will keep things quiet weather-wise for the short term. Heat
will build tomorrow with many locations approaching or reaching the
century mark with the exception of the interior Hill Country. Well
mixed boundary layer should keep dewpoints near or below 60-65
degrees for Saturday afternoon and keep heat index values from
approaching heat advisory criteria but it will still certainly be
hot. It is important to remember to stay hydrated, try to avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during peak heating hours, and never
leave children or pets in a vehicle.

There could be a few lingering patches of high clouds that may
regulate temperatures slightly Saturday afternoon. Also, the
dissipating Saharan Air Layer that has been impacting the region
will keep hazy conditions around at least through Saturday. Ridge
looks erode and begins to shift westward on Saturday, potentially
bringing a change in pattern just beyond the short term.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
As noted in the short term discussion above the upper level ridge
will shift to the west beginning on Saturday, and with the weakness
in the upper level pattern over us it will open the door for at least
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms. With a disturbance
located near the ArkLaTex and weak northerly or northwest flow aloft
Sunday should be dry, but rain chances creep into the forecast for
Monday. The GFS shows a possible MCS developing to our northwest and
approaching South Central Texas Monday night, while the Canadian and
ECMWF both show isolated activity to our north and east. Based on
this have continued to run with slight chance PoPs for Monday, but
introduced 20 PoPs in for Monday night to account for the possibility
of the MCS. If that does not form, or the isolated activity remains
to the north and east of our area then Monday could be a mostly dry
day. For Tuesday moisture pools more across east Texas, so the slight
chances for rain shift to east of I-35 during the afternoon hours.
The two days of increased clouds and slight rain chances will help
"cool" temperatures down from near the Century mark this weekend to
the mid 90s for the start of the work week. The upper level ridge
begins to build again over the Gulf of Mexico and Texas on Wednesday
returning the area to a dry forecast with warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74 101  75 101  76 /   0   0  -    0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  99  75  99  75 /   0   0  -    0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73 100  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            72  99  74  99  74 /   0  -    0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 101  77 105  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73 101  75 101  76 /   0  -   -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             72 100  73 102  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72 100  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  99  75  99  76 /   0   0  -   -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       74 100  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           74 101  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Runyen
Long-Term...05