Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 161700 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Minor updates have been made to the forecast this morning. Based on
radar trends, we have increased rain chances along and east of the
I-35 corridor. Despite the fact we are not seeing any thunderstorms,
hourly rainfall rates of 1/4-3/4" per hour are being measured. Areas
west of I-35 are particularly vulnerable to any additional rainfall
as saturated soils will convert all rainfall to runoff. The Flash
Flood Watch continues for areas west of I-35. Otherwise, only minor
changes were made to the forecast to account for recent observational
trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

UPDATE...
See below for the 12z aviation discussion...

AVIATION...
Primary focus for showers through the TAF period will likely be
across the Texas Hill Country, and should mostly avoid the terminals.
However, have kept VCSH at all sites for the entire period. MVFR
CIGs should persist through the period, with north/northwesterly
winds between 10 and 15 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Upper level low centered over Arizona/Sonora state of Mexico with
the right entrance region of an upper level jet overhead. An 850 MB
boundary is across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into Central
Texas. Showers continued across much of South Central Texas early
this morning along with an occasional thunderstorm. Isentropic lift
will maintain the widespread showers especially this morning, then
the lift will decrease a little. Due to earlier heavy rains and
ongoing moderate rains, rivers and streams in the Llano, Pedernales,
Guadalupe, and Nueces watersheds are in flood, some in major flood
with numerous river flood warnings in effect. Rain gauges show a few
spots with 8 to 10 inch totals since Sunday in the Hill Country. As a
result, even ongoing moderate rains will aggravate the flooding and
have maintained Flash Flood Watch through this evening. Additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with isolated spots of 3 to 5 inches can be
expected. The above features remain generally where they currently
are tonight into Wednesday and combined with weak warm advection
allow for scattered showers. A bit stronger lift across the Edwards
Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande and western Hill Country should
make for greater coverage and rainfall intensity out there. It is
possible that the Flash Flood Watch may be extended in time for those
areas. An occasional thunderstorm is possible due to weak elevated
instability. Well below normal temperatures are expected, although
will warm slightly as rain brings down warmer mid level air to the
surface.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
A mid level disturbance brings a slug of deeper moisture Wednesday
night through Friday. Showers will increase in coverage with more
rounds of heavier rains. This may lead to a renewed flash flood
threat along with additional river flooding or delayed falling of
river levels. Weak ridging at the surface and aloft builds over our
area this coming weekend. However, enough lift and moisture depth
exists for isolated to scattered showers. Rain chances increase by
the middle of next week as an upper level disturbance approaches our
area. Some models even bring the remnant moisture from a possible
eastern Pacific Tropical system across our area. Though temperatures
warm through the period, they remain well below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              49  47  55  49  58 / 100  40  40  60  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  49  48  55  51  58 /  90  40  40  60  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     51  47  56  51  58 /  90  40  40  70  70
Burnet Muni Airport            46  44  53  47  57 / 100  60  50  40  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           49  46  55  49  57 /  80  70  70  60  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        48  46  54  49  57 / 100  50  40  40  70
Hondo Muni Airport             51  48  57  51  57 /  90  40  40  70  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        50  48  56  51  58 /  90  40  40  70  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   52  50  58  53  62 /  70  40  40  60  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       51  48  56  51  57 /  90  40  40  70  80
Stinson Muni Airport           53  49  57  52  58 /  80  40  40  70  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Blanco-
Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Maverick-Medina-
Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala.

&&

$$

Aviation...YB
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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