Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 252035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow night]...

Tonight will be another cloudy and misty night with low stratus and
some chances of drizzle in some areas. Ridging continues to move
into the CWA and winds will stay easterly to southeasterly through
tomorrow night. Tomorrow will not be much different from today aside
from some warmer conditions with a warm front passing through the
area. Most of the CWA will reach the 80s tomorrow afternoon with
some higher dew points. Tuesday night will be a bit strange. A cool
front is expecting to stall midway through the CWA that could leave
College Station reaching the upper 40s, Houston Metro area in the
low 60s and Galveston in the mid 70s. This is based on the ridge
currently over us now moving to the east and being blocked by TS
Zeta in eastern LA. Exact timing of the frontal passage is still
uncertain, but drier and cooler temperatures will be behind the
front.  35

.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...

The main consistency with the long-term portion of the forecast does
seem to be its inconsistency. The slow moving cold front that was to
push across SE TX late Mon is now forecast to stall either NW of the
CWA or over the NW/W portions of the CWA on Tues, then tracking back
to the north by Tues night. The brief (or partial) foray of the cold
front into SE TX could have quite the potential for wild temperature
busts for these locations. Otherwise, the proximity of this boundary
should be a focus for isolated/widely scattered activity across much
of the area on Tues.

One of the main reasons for this cold front slowing/stalling appears
to be the very same thing that`s helping to keep Tropical Storm Zeta
away from the TX coast - the strong upper trof/closed low deepening/
approaching from the W/NW on Tues. As this upper level system begins
to move across the state on Weds (and TS Zeta approaches the central
Gulf coast), the strengthening onshore winds/increased Gulf moisture
should support elevated POPs across SE TX on Weds. Then as the upper
trof/low lifts out to the NE, the cold front should push through the
CWA by Weds night. Cool/dry weather is expected the remainder of the
week with slowly warming temperatures by next weekend. 41

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

High pressure ridging in and ceilings are expected to stick around
at most TAF sites for most of the day. Southern flying areas will se
a slight break with higher temperatures breaking the inversion,
allowing some drier air aloft to mix down and dissipate some of the
lower stratus. Still, most areas will see MVFR conditions at best
and tonight, conditions are expected to deteriorate as cooling sets
the inversions back up. Through most of the night, IFR conditions
will prevail at most TAF sites with ceilings below 010 and souther
areas will still be at MVFR with ceilings around 015-025. Not much
ahead for improvement until the approaching cold front destabilizes
the area more tomorrow evening and then FROPA Wednesday.  35

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow strengthens through out the rest of the day bordering,
with speeds high enough to justify SCS for the southwestern coastal
waters from 1am-10am tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, winds will begin to
shift more easterly, weakening the onshore flow. Wednesday morning
wind speeds increase as a cold front passes through the coastal
waters. Seas are anticipated to build as well and a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed for the coastal waters through
thursday morning. Also, on Wednesday TS Zeta is expected to pass in
neighboring waters into eastern LA. At this time, ridging to the
east of the CWA will ensure the turn away for the SETX coast, but
mariners should closely monitor the forecast for TS Zeta that is
forecasted to reach hurricane strength upon entering the GOM. Prior
to landfall, it is anticipated that Zeta will weaken to just below
hurricane strength. After that, by around Friday, seas will subside
to the 3-4ft range and winds northerly around 15kts. 35


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  68  80  48  68  56 /  10  40  40  30  40
Houston (IAH)          68  80  61  78  66 /  10  10  20  20  40
Galveston (GLS)        74  77  73  78  73 /   0  10  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 1 AM CDT Monday through
     Monday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters
     from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...35
MARINE...35



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