Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 020833
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...

Scattered showers and storms have continued to develop across the
area overnight, with the bulk of activity to the east of the I-45
corridor. This activity is expected to continue throughout the
remainder of the morning and into the afternoon with a mid/upper
low sitting just to our northeast. Moisture availability remains
fairly abundant with synoptic models in fairly good agreement in
indicating total PW values in excess of 2.0 in throughout the day.
While HREF members continue to focus the bulk of convective
development to our east again today (as we saw yesterday), an
expansion of rainfall coverage to the east of I-45 is expected
over the next 3-6 hours. The highest chances for rainfall during
this time will be concentrated in and around Galveston Bay, with
activity gradually shifting to the northeast by the early
afternoon. Not anticipating a flood threat today, although a brief
locally heavy downpour cannot be ruled out. Precipitation chances
will diminish tomorrow as the aforementioned remnant upper low
drifts out of the area and mid/upper ridging becomes dominant once
again.

High temperatures today once again follow an east-west gradient,
with highs in the low/mid 90s to the west of I-45 where
precipitation coverage and cloud coverage will be lower. To the
east of I-45, expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. With
ridging building into the area tomorrow and decreased cloud cover,
highs will rise into the mid/upper 90s inland and near 90 along
the coast. Overnight lows remain in the upper 70s inland and low
80s along the coast.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Ready for the return of summer heat after our very brief reprieve
that past few days? A strong upper level ridge will remain near the
region through the entirety of the long term with it initially being
centered over Louisiana, then ending the week centered over Texas.
This high pressure will help support temperatures climbing into the
mid to upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday, then upper 90s to lower
triple digits for Wednesday and beyond. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 70s to low 80s. PWATs will be climbing through the week
from near 1.5" on Monday to around 2" Wednesday. Heat indices will
be nearing Heat Advisory thresholds by Wednesday in response to the
increasing moisture.

Those hoping for some much needed rainfall will not get any solace
in this forecast. There is a chance for some isolated showers and
thunderstorms along the sea breeze each afternoon after Tuesday, but
really want to emphasize the isolated part of this sentence. The
best day for these isolated afternoon showers will be Wednesday as a
weak shortwave retrogrades under the ridge and crosses the Texas
coastline. Precipitation chances look bleak beyond the long term as
surface high pressure builds over the western Gulf for the start of
next week.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Update]...

The main impact for the overnight hours will be MVFR ceilings
across our northern sites. UTS and CXO have already recorded
observations of MVFR/IFR ceilings as a result of the lingering
moisture. IAH and sites northward have the highest probabilities
of MVFR ceilings between now and 14Z. Rain showers have already
begun to develop offshore and high resolution model guidance
depicts these moving over land in the early morning hours on
Saturday from south to north. Around 18Z, expect coverage to
increase with widespread showers/thunderstorms developing across
the region. Going into the evening hours, convection coverage will
steadily decrease from south to north, so northern sites keep
VCTS for just a little bit longer. Winds throughout the day will
be southeasterly to southerly around 10 knots. Saturday night
shows a similar scenario for another round of MVFR ceilings across
our northern sites.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
morning. Small craft in the waters off of Matagorda should exercise
caution through at least the late morning today as onshore flow
remains between 15 to 20kts. Light to occasionally moderate onshore
flow will then persist through the rest of next week as high
pressure dominates our weather.

The moderate onshore flow today will result in a high risk of rip
currents along Gulf facing beaches.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  96  77  98  76  98 /  20  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          91  78  94  78  96 /  50  10  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)        88  83  90  83  91 /  60  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
     zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
     Island...Matagorda Islands.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 AM CDT this morning
     for the following zones: Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 AM CDT this morning
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler


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