Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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910
FXUS64 KHGX 211123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Mostly VFR conditions this morning across the terminals besides
some patchy MVFR ceilings impacting the northern terminals such as
CXO, UTS, and CLL when high clouds are not overhead. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible today
starting along the coast and pushing inland with daytime heating.
Most of the convection should dissipate by the early evening hours,
with onshore flow becoming light to moderate along the coast. Some
patchy fog looks possible across the region in the early morning
hours, and MVFR ceilings should fill in impacting sites such as
CXO and northward.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 423 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tonight]...
Upper-level ridging is continuing to build in from the east
today, helping to dampen widespread chances for showers and
thunderstorms today. Precipitable waters have not dried out too
much just yet, with 1.9 to 2.1 inches remaining over the area, as
seen in the GOES-16 total precipitable water imagery. In general,
coverage should be more isolated to scattered, with mostly showers
and isolated thunderstorms possible. Convection should wane with
the loss of daytime heating by the early evening hours. High
temperatures today should rise into the low to mid 90s area wide,
once again above seasonal normals for this time of year. Pockets
of patchy fog looks possible tonight, with low temperatures
bottoming out in the low 70s to 80s.

Hathaway

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Saturday]...
An upper level ridge over the Deep South will extend into Texas on
Sunday. Moisture trapped beneath the ridge will allow for scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the day. PW values remain near
1.90 inches and convective temperatures are only in the upper 80`s.
850 mb temps support high temperatures in the lower 90`s. PW values
drop on Monday to around 1.70 inches but a weak inverted upper
trough sliding west beneath the ridge toward the middle coast will
bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on
Monday. High temperatures will again warm into the lower 90`s. The
upper ridge retreats to the east as an upper low approaches the
southern Rockies on Wednesday. 500 mb heights slowly fall and 850
temps also cool. Temperatures should cool a few degrees  in response
to the lower heights. PW values drop to around 1.30 inches  so rain
chances should decrease. The upper low gets sheared out as it pivots
into the western high plains on Friday. This will allow the upper
ridge over the eastern US to expand and shift west. The flow aloft
between these two systems will become S-SW and this will allow a
weak disturbance to move into the area and bring another chance of
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances
will fall next weekend and temperatures will warm again as a 594 dm
upper level high settles over Texas. Unseasonably warm temperatures
will return for next weekend and Sept 2019 will probably end as one
of, if not the warmest September on record.  43

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow will continue through the remainder of the
weekend before pressure gradient slackens over SE TX. Small craft
should continue to exercise caution over both bays and the Gulf
waters. The risk for strong rip currents and elevated tides remain
possible through the weekend. Tide levels will peak near 3.0 feet
above MLLW during times of high tide through the Sunday and
potentially even Monday before lowering beneath the 3.0 feet
mark. Onshore flow falls closer to 10 knots by Monday, with seas
lowering to near 3 to 4 feet. Light to moderate onshore flow will
continue through much of next week.

Hathaway

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Good news for the most part. All area rivers have crested and are
now falling. San Jac at SHeldon is the only river forecast point
still in Major flood but will to Moderate this morning. Peach Creek
is now below flood stage and other than Cedar Bayou, all Harris
COUnty bayous are within banks and falling. Area rivers are all
expected to fall within banks by Monday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  95  73  92  72  93 /  20   0  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)          91  75  92  75  91 /  20  20  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)        90  80  91  81  90 /  20  30  40  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...08



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