Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 210455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

06Z package nearly identical to the 00Z issuance. Periodic 09-13Z
MVRF/isolated IFR ceilings have a coin toss chance of forming
away from metro...mesobreezes picking up and backing a bit closer
to the coast later in the day. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

Previous forecast appears to be on track. No major changes were
made. 11


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

VFR. Brief periods of MVFR or IFR over northern, primarily non-
metro, terminals shortly after sunrise Saturday. There is a low
probability that a few metro hubs could go down to below VFR for
about an hour during the 7 to 9 AM LT period. Mainly a southwest
breeze that will back a bit more southerly late in the afternoon.
Late afternoon inland movement of the sea breeze boundary will
strengthen island`s SW-S winds going into the early evening hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

Hot and dry conditions for the next few days as a sprawling upper
level ridge expands eastward with heights building to 597 dm over
North Texas in the next couple of days. Cloud cover mixed out
during the mid to late morning leaving clear, sunny skies behind
it this afternoon. PWs have slightly increased throughout the day,
though subsidence from the ridge will continue to inhibit
convection as we head into the weekend.

Weekend high temperatures are expected to gradually increase
through Monday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Saturday and
will likely be extended into Sunday with Monday expected to be
the hottest day. Bringing 850 mb temperatures down dry adiabatically
on Sunday and Monday supports temperatures between 106 and 109
degrees. If these temperatures verify, an Excessive Heat Warning
may be required for parts of the area. The GFS and ECMWF suggest
the ridge may begin to retreat beginning Monday. The NAM appears
to agree, though heights remain higher than both the ECMWF and
GFS. As heights lower with the retreating ridge, we can expect
slightly cooler temperatures at the surface heading into next
week, though there is low confidence in forecast high temperatures
due to a fairly large spread between models.

Rain chances for next week appear to be fairly low. The GFS
suggests a much wetter situation with the upper low moving
westward and sitting over the S/SE TX and LA region late next
week and into next weekend. We`re keeping precipitation chances at
a minimum leaning toward the drier and more consistent ECMWF,
though we do have a few low PoPs mainly for our SE and coastal
zones for Tuesday night through Friday Night. Randall/43

Light to occasionally moderate south to southwest winds are expected
to persist throughout the weekend and into the beginning of the
upcoming week. At times during the overnight hours, nocturnal
cooling inland may produce enough of a thermal gradient along the
coast to result in winds nearing caution levels. Seas are expected
to remain in a 1 to 3 foot range. 42

Even though temperatures will be hot over the weekend, elevated
fire weather conditions are not anticipated due to light winds.
However, no rain chances and very low afternoon humidities may
make conditions favorable for isolated fire starts, especially
across portions of the Brazos Valley or Piney Woods regions.
Residents should make sure to not idle or drive vehicles in tall
grasses and secure or remove loose chains on vehicles and farm
equipment. 42


College Station (CLL)      77 103  77 104  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              79 101  78 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            82  92  82  92  82 /   0   0   0   0   0


TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
     Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
     Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
     Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
     Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
     Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
     Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...



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