405
FXUS64 KLZK 092258
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
558 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

+ After the widespread rainfall and cloud cover of yesterday,
today started off somewhat cool and cloudy only to give way to
mostly sunny skies and a warm afternoon across Arkansas. What
happened today is a microcosm of what we can expect this week with
temperatures warming up a bit each day through the weekend into
early next week.

+ Each afternoon will feature a threat for showers and
thunderstorms, however the coverage of storms is expected to
remain isolated each afternoon and early evening through the
middle of next week. These storms are expected to pose the same
threats of any common summertime Arkansas storm. Locally damaging
winds and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding will
be the primary threats, but these threats are expected to remain
limited in area and magnitude.

Cavanaugh

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a scattered
stratocumulus deck over the state while surface observations put 3
PM temperatures in the upper 80s for most locations. Owing to the
widespread rainfall over the state yesterday the day today started
out unusually cloudy keeping temperatures down in the 70s through
much of the morning hours. Just after noon however the intensity
of the early July sun angle won out, scattering out the clouds and
bringing temperatures up about 10 degrees to our current readings.
Unlike yesterday and Monday, regional radars were mostly clear
with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms noted over the
northeast portion of the state.

Over the next 7 days, the weather pattern impacting Arkansas is
expected to be fairly stagnant. High pressure aloft will
generally remain in control of our weather pattern here although a
shortwave trough or two will make a run at our northern border
here this weekend. Overall this weather pattern will promote a
gradual increase in temperature each day as we head into early
next week. By the time we reach early to mid next week the build
up of heat will probably bring us into excessive territory
resulting in a need for daily heat advisories as the build up of
heat and constant levels of humidity will eventually bring heat
index values up over 105 degrees, especially for central, southern
and eastern portions of the state.

Every day in the forecast through Wednesday of next week (as far
out as our forecast currently goes) we will have a chance for
showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating hours of the
day. For every day besides Saturday and Sunday, this activity is
expected to remain isolated in nature meaning most locations will
remain dry. For those locations that see a storm, those storms
could put down a quick inch or two of rain in a short time
resulting in locally heavy rainfall and localized flood impacts.
Storms in this hot and humid environment also grow to be quite
tall, and when they collapse, they tend to put down some strong
winds, so locally damaging winds from microbursts will also be a
daily concern. For the most part however, no organized storms or
widespread severe weather or flooding hazards are expected over
the next 7 days.

For this weekend, as mentioned above, we expect to see a couple of
shortwave troughs move down towards the Missouri border both on
Saturday and Sunday afternoons. This will result in an increase in
the coverage of storms across northern Arkansas Saturday and
Sunday afternoons. The impacts of these storms are expected to be
similar to any other day in the forecast, but the simple presence
of additional storms means more opportunity for people to
experience those impacts. Afternoon bouts of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be more common over the northern portions
of the state where the topography is quite a bit more hilly than
points south and east. Heavy rain in topography also opens the
door to some flash flooding, and we will have to handle this on a
case by case basis to assess the threats. Folks planning on
camping this weekend should have at least 2 ways to get weather
information just in case something organizes locally. Things
aren`t expected to get too bad this weekend, but it`s always best
to be prepared just in case.

Cavanaugh

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

For the 00Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected through the valid forecast period with
light winds throughout the forecast. Some 00Z aviation weather
guidance suggested we`d have reduced visibilities during the early
morning hours and then again some reduced visibilities during the
day, perhaps due to haze. Right now dew points are in the upper
60s to low 70s across the state. Generally lower than they have
been in days. We don`t really have standing water anywhere, so I`m
struggling to see why visibilities will fall tomorrow morning, so
left that out of the TAFs for now. Will reevaluate at 06Z and see
if anything has changed.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  92  73  94 /   0  10   0  20
Camden AR         71  93  73  96 /  10  20  10  10
Harrison AR       68  90  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    72  93  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
Little Rock   AR  75  92  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
Monticello AR     74  92  75  95 /  10  30  10  30
Mount Ida AR      71  91  73  94 /   0  20   0  10
Mountain Home AR  68  91  72  92 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        73  92  75  95 /   0  10   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     73  92  73  95 /  10  20  10  20
Russellville AR   72  93  74  95 /  10  10   0  10
Searcy AR         72  92  73  94 /   0  10   0  20
Stuttgart AR      75  92  75  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66