Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 192342 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.



VFR should prevail through the entire TAF period for all sites.
Carried VCTS mention at northern terminals given ongoing
convection north of the area, although confidence in TS remains
low at KHRO/KBPK. High clouds increase from the west tonight with
variable winds through tomorrow afternoon, at which point
winds will become southwesterly. Isolated to scattered TS possible
again tomorrow, but leaving out mention for now given low



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Upper level ridging has increased across portion of the CWA this
Sat afternoon...with generally just hot and humid conditions
ongoing across the CWA. Some isolated TSRA are ongoing to the
north and NE of the CWA early this afternoon...generally along
some localized boundaries along the periphery of the upper level
ridge of AR. While most areas will remain dry the rest of this
afternoon and early evening...some isolated TSRA will remain
possible...especially across NERN sections of the CWA. Given the
hot and humid conditions in place...any activity that may develop
across the NERN portions of the CWA could become strong...maybe
briefly SVR. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with
the strongest activity. Some isolated SHRA/TSRA will remain
possible further west across NRN and NWRN portions of the
CWA...but chances will be lower. Otherwise...the story will be the
heat as heat index values have increased into the 90s...even
approaching 100 in some isolated areas this afternoon.

What ridging that is in place this afternoon will shift east some
for Sun...with some increased chances for SHRA/TSRA for portions of
the CWA. Looks like the best POPs will during the morning hrs across
the NWRN counties as an upper shortwave approaches the area from the
west. However...additional convection will be possible during the
late morning and through the evening hrs with the peak heating of
the day. Warm temps will again be seen...with peak heat index values
in the 90s to near 100.

A weak front will drop SE into the state for Mon...with increased
chances for SHRA/TSRA expected. This front looks to wash out across
portions of the CWA...which will be the primary focus for convection
by the afternoon hrs. Temps will be a bit cooler however...though
still warm and humid.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

Very little change was made to the going forecast. Upper flow will
transition from quasi-zonal to northwesterly. Surface front will
meander around the region. Disturbances will move through and
interact with the boundary, with showers and thunderstorms possible
each day.

Temperatures will largely remain above average, but will heavily
dependent on cloud cover and any rain that falls.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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