407
FXUS64 KLZK 300638 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
138 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

-Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm possible Monday
 afternoon through Tuesday as a frontal boundary moves south into
 Arkansas.

- Hot and humid conditions return for the latter part of the week
  into next weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
  heat indices of 100-109 possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Satellite this afternoon shows partly cloudy skies over the
Natural state with temperatures across the state in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. As we move into the late afternoon and evening
hours, an outflow boundary currently over southern Missouri will
move into northern Arkansas within the next couple of hours. Hi-
res CAMs over multiple runs has been consistent with the
development of isolated to scattered showers along and ahead of
this boundary. Have elected to keep chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorm through the late afternoon/early evening hours
across north and north central Arkansas. A few diurnally driven
showers and storms are likely this afternoon across the rest of
Arkansas  before all activity dissipates within a hour or two
after sunset due to loss of daytime heating.

As we head into Monday, H500mb ridging over the south will help
temperatures warm well into the lower to mid 90s across a large
portions of Arkansas with heat indices in the 100-109 range over
portions of central, north central, eastern, southeast & southwest
Arkansas. A Heat Advisory has been issued to account for the hot
and humid conditions expected in the aforementioned areas. By
Monday afternoon, a cold front will dive southeast into portions
of central Missouri. Another round of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are in the forecast on Monday afternoon and evening
with the best chances over the northern half of Arkansas. A few
strong storms are possible with locally heavy rain, which could
lead to localized flash flooding, with sub severe hail and gusty
outflow winds possible on Monday afternoon and evening. By
Tuesday, the weak cold front will push into portions of northern
Arkansas. Models differ on how far south the cold front makes it
within Arkansas. The ECMWF solution brings the front as far south
as central Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon, then retreating
northeastward as a warm front by Wednesday through the state as
ridging along the northeast Texas coast builds northward into the
state. The GFS solution moves the weak front all the way through
the state by Tuesday afternoon with upper level ridging building
in from the west behind the front.

For Wednesday through next Sunday, upper level ridging along the
northeast Texas coast on Wednesday will slowly move northward to
far east Texas near the Louisiana border on Thursday. By Thursday
night into Friday,the upper level ridge axis will be over the
central part of the country and will promote hot and humid
conditions across the state from Wednesday through Sunday. A
shortwave trough will move across the central Plains on
Saturday in Sunday with an attendant weak cold front extending
south into the southern plains. The front will move into portions
of northwest Arkansas and combined with afternoon heating bring
isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms to a large portion
of the state on Sunday. A look at NBM 75th percentile for
temperatures shows in the lower to mid 90s through Friday, then
upper 90s next weekend. If forecast trends continue, heat
headlines may be needed at times during the Wednesday through
Sunday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Expect VFR condns to prevail thru much of the new TAF PD, w/
earlier evng convective activity having cleared out over most of
the FA. Light and variable winds w/ mainly high clouds wl be seen
into Mon mrng, w/ SWrly winds resuming Mon aftn. Some uncertainty
remains on exact timing and placement of precip potential Mon
aftn as a weak cdfrnt moves into Nrn AR. For now, have kept PROB30
mentions for aftn to evng TS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  72  89  69 /  60  40  20   0
Camden AR         95  74  92  72 /  10  30  40  10
Harrison AR       89  69  86  65 /  70  30  10   0
Hot Springs AR    95  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  10
Little Rock   AR  94  74  90  73 /  40  40  30  10
Monticello AR     94  76  91  73 /  30  30  50  10
Mount Ida AR      93  71  90  71 /  30  40  30  10
Mountain Home AR  89  69  87  66 /  70  30  10   0
Newport AR        94  74  90  71 /  60  40  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  74  89  72 /  30  30  40  10
Russellville AR   94  72  90  71 /  40  40  20  10
Searcy AR         94  73  90  70 /  50  40  20   0
Stuttgart AR      93  75  89  72 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ007-008-016-017-025-032>034-042>047-053>057-062>069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...72