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FXUS64 KLZK 020547
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

12Z LIT sounding showed a modest amount of elevated instability,
from roughly 750mb on up. Decaying MCS complex out of OK this
morning pushed out a cloud shield and a few distinct outflow
boundaries, which has resulted in some light showers in a roughly N-
S orientation across the central part of the state. Also at the
moment, radar and visible satellite show a bit of development firing
up in an area of partial clearing between the clouds/precip remnants
over OK, and the previous remnant cloud shield over central AR.

A look at the larger picture shows a very broad midlevel trof
across the western 2/3 of the continental US. Progs show an
embedded shortwave spinning up over TX and rotating up over AR
into the morning hours.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary was located over the
southern half of MO, with a southerly surface flow in place over AR.
By Friday, a cold front will start to slowly push into Arkansas from
the Plains.

With the shortwave approaching the state tomorrow and adequate
moisture in place, there will be a slight risk for excessive
rainfall...which could lead to rises in rivers and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Overall pattern supports unsettled conditions across the forecast
area early in the period before a more tranquil pattern develops
towards the end. Model differences are what you would expect in this
time frame and an overall blend of forecast solutions is preferred.

Long term period begins with a largely amplified pattern in place
characterized by upper level low pressure systems over central
Ontario and just off the British Columbia coast. Pattern places the
region in an active southern stream with a series of systems moving
through for a continuation of rain chances. It must be emphasized
that even with POPS remain in the forecast, rain will not be falling
all the time.

Aforementioned BC system will dive into the four corners over the
weekend and will drag a front through the region increasing the
chances for precipitation in this time frame. This deep strong
system will eventually move off to the northeast but remain over the
northern plains through the remainder of the period. As it moves
into the northern plains, pattern supports a much drier regime but
not until the end of the period.

Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s through the weekend increasing to the lower 90s by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Mid/high clouds will continue to overspread the state from the W
and SW overnight. SHRA/TSRA are expected to build into the state
on Thursday, expanding in areal coverage from SW to NE. CIGs will
lower and VFR conds are expected to become low-end MVFR, possibly
IFR at time across Wrn/Srn/Cntrl sites during the afternoon.
There could be lull in coverage of PoPs Thursday evening. Light
winds overnight will become S/SWrly between 10-20 kts on Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  64  81  64 /  50  80  50  20
Camden AR         74  65  80  63 /  90  70  70  20
Harrison AR       77  60  79  60 /  70  60  30  10
Hot Springs AR    73  65  81  64 /  80  70  60  20
Little Rock   AR  79  66  82  66 /  80  80  60  20
Monticello AR     80  68  80  65 /  70  80  80  30
Mount Ida AR      73  64  81  63 /  90  60  60  20
Mountain Home AR  81  62  80  61 /  60  70  40  10
Newport AR        84  65  81  65 /  40  80  60  20
Pine Bluff AR     80  66  80  64 /  70  80  80  30
Russellville AR   76  64  82  63 /  70  60  40  20
Searcy AR         82  64  81  63 /  60  80  60  20
Stuttgart AR      82  67  80  65 /  60  80  70  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70