Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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154
FXUS64 KLZK 180006
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
706 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.AVIATION...18/00Z TAF CYCLE

Breezy south winds wl cont overnight ahead of a fast moving storm
system/CDFNT that wl sweep thru AR on Wed. Winds wl veer to the SW
and eventually W/NW by Wed aftn behind FROPA. Sustained speeds of
8 to 12 kts, with gusts of 20 to 24 kts expected. Look for some
low lvl moisture incrs acrs parts of central/srn AR toward
daybreak on Wed, with combo of VFR/MVFR Cigs expected. Otherwise,
VFR conds wl prevail. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

A cold front will arrive in Arkansas from the Plains tonight. The
front will reach western sections of the state before pushing
through the remainder of the region on Wednesday.

Moisture will be limited along/ahead of the front. There will be
some increase in high/mid clouds, and an isolated shower or two
cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the front will shift the wind and
that is about it.

Breezy south/southwest winds will turn to the west/northwest on
Wednesday. It will also be cooler, but that will not be felt until
Wednesday night/Thursday. At that time, high pressure will build
over the region from the west, and winds will become less gusty.

As far as temperatures, readings will be above average for the most
part tonight and Wednesday. Readings will be below average Wednesday
night and Thursday.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Monday Night

Only a few minor tweaks to the existing long term forecast. After
the cold front moves through the state to end the short
term...surface high pressure to the north of Arkansas slides to
the east as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the
state on Friday. Despite the ridge, temperatures will remain below
normal for this time of year ahead of an approaching storm system.
Models have continued to slow and bring the surface low pressure
of the approaching storm system further to the south with each
model run. The more southerly track will minimize severe weather
potential across Arkansas although some isolated thunderstorms can
not be ruled out. As a result did slow onset of precipitation to
Saturday evening with precipitation tapering Sunday evening.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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