


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
187 FXUS64 KLZK 080548 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 + For this work week each afternoon will feature the potential for showers and thunderstorms, primarily driven by the heat of the day each day. Showers and storms are expected to have their highest coverage each afternoon/evening through Monday, with lower coverage expected late this week into next weekend. + Temperatures will remain quite warm this week, but the chance of afternoon showers and storms each day will prevent the heat from building up into dangerous territory. It`s still early July in Arkansas, it`ll still be hot and humid, but at levels that are common in the summer instead of well above normal. + While severe weather and flooding aren`t expected to be widespread concerns, the types of storms we`ll see this week will be very tall and very slow moving. Very tall storms are prone to collapse dragging strong to damaging winds down towards the ground with little notice (microbursts) and slow moving tall storms are notorious heavy rainfall producers, so localized flash flooding is also possible. While neither threat is expected to become common or frequent, we will have to watch for the potential for both throughout the week. Cavanaugh && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered over the Louisiana Gulf coast and weak upper level ridging split on either side of the TUTT with high pressure type circulations noted off the Carolina coast and over the four corners region of the southwest United States. To the north, a weak trough was noted over the central Great Plains, moving east on track to move just north of the Arkansas/Missouri border. Across Arkansas, surface observations across the state showed temperatures in the lower to mid 90s under partly cloudy skies and fairly humid conditions in place with dew point values in the lower 70s for most locations. Regional radar and satellite data showed scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the state with hit and miss activity most prevalent over the eastern two thirds of the state. Through tonight, expect most of the scattered showers and storms that are on radar right now to dissipate around or shortly after sunset. The ongoing thunderstorm activity is primarily driven by rising currents of air forced by the peak heating hours of the day, those currents of rising air will shut off quickly after sunset. After sunset however, our high resolution models are suggesting that an additional cluster of showers and storms will develop over the northwestern quarter of the state. This is probably due to the weak forcing for ascent tied to the subtle shortwave trough over the Kansas/Oklahoma border. The ensemble of short range model guidance places a 40 to 50 percent chance of this second round of slightly more organized showers and storms this evening. If it pans out, would expect that storms will tend to be on the tall and slow moving side, pointing to localized flooding as the primary potential impact. On Tuesday Arkansas is expected to remain in between ridges to the west and east and troughs to the north and south in a region referred to on topological maps as a saddle, or in meteorology as a deformation zone. In this zone, the flow aloft is very weak featuring steering winds aloft ranging from 5-15 mph. Despite the weak nature of the flow, the problem for Arkansas is that the weak flow from every direction slowly converges on Arkansas. That convergence will favor a greater number of showers and storms, especially during and after the peak heating hours of the day. Instead of the 30-40 percent coverage that we are seeing today across the state, we could be looking more at 40-50 percent coverage across the state tomorrow throughout the day. With the winds aloft so very weak, it becomes almost impossible to pinpoint exactly where the most showers and storms will develop and persist, but the overall impacts are expected to be similar to today`s activity... just more of it. For tomorrows` showers and storms there will be plenty of moisture, a sufficient amount of heat, and persistent albeit very weak lift with almost no wind shear to work with. Collapsing storms producing microbursts and slow moving storms that don`t collapse, but rather continue to produce heavy rainfall as they mosey about will be localized flash flood threats. In most cases a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall for those areas that get directly under a storm with the potential for no rain at all in other areas. Right now high resolution ensemble guidance suggests that the reasonable worst case scenario (the top 10 percent of all rainfall forecasts from hundreds of models) is 3-4 inches where storms persist instead of collapse as they move slowly across the state. Whatever rain falls tomorrow will come down efficiently and quickly as the moisture content of the air is fully tropical, capable of dumping 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates. While flash flooding is not expected to become a widespread enough threat to warrant a flood watch, we will have to watch radar and satellite trends closely to make sure we get ahead of any localized flash flooding event. On Wednesday the upper trough is expected to nudge a little bit farther south over Arkansas. Overall this keeps the warm and humid air in place over much of the state, so Wednesday will be fairly similar to Tuesday`s weather, but everything will be shifted a bit south. Because Arkansas is more or less in the middle of everything on Tuesday, nudging farther south actually brings a bit of dry air aloft (important distinction, because the ground will remain warm and humid) over the northwestern third or so of the state. While the remainder of the state won`t notice much of a difference, this should lead to slightly less rain and storm chances up in northwest Arkansas Wednesday afternoon. Thursday and Friday...The aforementioned extremely slow moving upper trough is expected to nudge even farther south over Arkansas late this week ushering some more dry air aloft in over the state. Once again, this won`t necessarily change anything weather wise for what we feel on the ground. It will largely remain just about as warm and humid as Monday - Wednesday, but we will see a notable drop off in coverage of storms each afternoon. Afternoon showers and storms will still be possible, but their coverage will be isolated at best as we close out the work week. As we move into the weekend the weak trough is expected to have either dissipated or moved east of Arkansas, taking away the large scale tendency to slowly converge everything over the state. This will result in less clouds and lower rain chances during the peak heating hours of the day which will just translate to slightly warmer temperatures. We`ll have to watch closely to see if the combination of continued low-level humidity and the increase in heat is enough to warrant a heat advisory, but for now it looks like afternoon heat index values will remain just below 105 degrees. This may change as we get better model data as the weekend approaches. No significant change in weather conditions is expected in the longer range forecast as we start talking about next work week. Cavanaugh && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Scattered showers activity over portions of the northern and portions of the central part of Arkansas will continue to decrease in coverage and will eventually dissipate around sunrise. Light and variable winds will prevail through the rest of the overnight hours into the early morning across all terminals. Hi- res CAMs early this morning shows yet another day of diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity by this afternoon and persisting into the evening hours. The main aviation impacts will be gusty thunderstorm outflow winds and heavy rainfall that will temporarily reduce visibilities into the MVFR/IFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 71 88 71 / 60 30 60 10 Camden AR 92 72 88 72 / 60 40 70 20 Harrison AR 86 69 87 68 / 60 30 30 10 Hot Springs AR 91 71 88 71 / 60 30 70 10 Little Rock AR 90 74 88 74 / 60 30 70 10 Monticello AR 92 74 88 73 / 60 30 80 20 Mount Ida AR 89 71 88 70 / 60 30 70 10 Mountain Home AR 85 69 87 69 / 50 30 40 10 Newport AR 90 73 89 73 / 60 30 50 10 Pine Bluff AR 92 73 87 72 / 60 30 70 20 Russellville AR 90 72 89 72 / 60 30 50 10 Searcy AR 89 71 89 72 / 60 30 60 10 Stuttgart AR 91 74 88 74 / 60 30 60 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...Kelly