375
FXUS64 KLZK 120544
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

-Hot and humid conditions will persist with some areas expected to
 see heat indices of 100 to 105 at times.

-There will be continued chances for rain and thunderstorms in
 the coming days.

-Some storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and
 heavy downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Remnant line of rain/storms continues to push south across
portions of SW MO early this morning. CAMs have struggled to
resolve the future impacts of this across northern portions of AR
through the morning hours. But, at least a few showers and storms
can be expected across northern areas through 16z with a low
threat of heavy downpours.

H500 trough will persist across portions of the Southern Plains
and Lower MS River Valley the next few days as it finds itself
between tow separate ridges across the SW and SE US. At the sfc,
a cold front will approach from the NW as well. With the mid-level
trough in place and unseasonably high moisture across much of the
region, an increase in showers/storms is expected as daytime
heating occurs. Instability is expected to increase dramatically
this afternoon which will lead to an increased threat for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms.

Little in the way of shear will help temper the overall severe
threat. Damaging wind gusts are expected to remain the main
thunderstorm hazard, but given the meager shear/storm motion,
locally heavy rainfall may also be a concern. It does appear the
more widespread threat for heavy rainfall exists just west of the
state. A similar setup is expected across the state on Sunday as
the pattern remains locked in for at least another day.

Where precip/clouds are most abundant (generally NW AR) today,
temperatures will likely remain near to below normal for mid-July.
Elsewhere, daytime highs are expected to climb into the lower to
mid 90s and heat indices will approach 100. Precip coverage may be
a bit higher on Sunday which could limit daytime highs over a
slightly larger area.

Going into next week, the SE US ridge may expand westward and
cover more of the region. But, some remnant mid-level circulation
may remain just to the west of AR for a couple more days. So, it
may take a little longer for the expanding ridge to bring even
warmer temperatures and lower rain chances. Chances for isolated,
diurnally driven showers/storms remain in the forecast through the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period with sfc
winds out of the S-SW at up to 10 kts with some terminals seeing
occasional gusts above 15 kts. Decaying line of showers/storms
across SW MO will drift south into northern AR through 12z and
could lead to additional showers/storms this morning. Otherwise,
additional precip is possible this afternoon/evening across the
state. This could lead to some occasional impacts to area
terminals, with the best coverage expected across the northwest
half of AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  72  90  72 /  60  20  70  20
Camden AR         94  73  94  74 /  50  30  50  10
Harrison AR       86  69  84  70 /  80  30  70  20
Hot Springs AR    95  73  93  72 /  50  30  70  20
Little Rock   AR  94  75  92  75 /  50  30  60  10
Monticello AR     94  75  94  76 /  40  20  40  10
Mount Ida AR      92  72  91  71 /  60  40  70  20
Mountain Home AR  88  69  86  70 /  80  30  80  20
Newport AR        94  74  93  74 /  50  20  60  10
Pine Bluff AR     94  74  94  75 /  40  20  50  10
Russellville AR   92  73  90  73 /  60  30  70  20
Searcy AR         93  72  91  73 /  50  20  60  10
Stuttgart AR      93  75  92  76 /  40  30  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67