Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 171542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1042 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


No significant changes to the going forecast this morning, just
minor tweaks to temp, dewpoint, and sky grids. Adjusted temps and
dewpoints up slightly -- especially across southern AR --
reflecting observed trends.




SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

Dry conditions are ongoing across the state early this Sat
morning...with all precip NE of the state in WRN KY and TN. A large
moisture gradient exists across the CWA as a dryline/front has moved
east into portions of the CWA. Dewpts across WRN sections of the
state are in the 20s and 30...while along and east of this boundary
located from near BPK to east of CCA...west of near dewpts in the 50s and 60s. Some patchy fog has developed
along this boundary...with some reports of dense fog observed.
However...this dense fog has been fairly no plans for
an adv at this time.

With upper level ridging developing over the state later this Sat
afternoon...the frontal boundary will become stalled over portions
of the state...mainly becoming an E/W oriented boundary across the
SRN third of AR. Temps will again be warm...with highs in the 70s to
near 80 across the south...and in the upper 50s to mid 60s across
the north well north of this boundary. Precip chances should remain
limited due to the upper level ridging.

By late upper disturbance will rotate over the ridge
aloft...with the boundary expected to remain over SRN sections of
the state. Chances for SHRA/TSRA will increase with this
disturbance...with the best chances for precip over the SRN third of
the state through sunrise Sun. Another upper disturbance will lift
NE over the state by Sun afternoon...though the SFC boundary will
likely move very little. As a result...the best chances for seeing
precip will be across the SRN/SERN sections of the state along this
boundary...and in addition to over NWRN sections of the area under
the stronger portion of the upper disturbance Sun afternoon/evening.

Some strong to SVR storms may be seen with this activity...with the
best potential for seeing any SVR Wx across the SWRN/SRN sections of
the state near and just north of the stalled SFC boundary. Looks
like the primary hazard expected with the strongest storms will be
large hail as SFC based storms are not expected.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

At the beginning of the period, occluding surface low and associated
frontal boundaries will be moving through the state during the day.
With the system occluding, there will not be much of a chance for
the warm sector to expand and for things to destabilize. So, while
there will be a chance for showers/storms, it should be coming to an
end fairly quickly during the day as drier air sweeps in behind the

Winds on Monday will be elevated as the gradient will be fairly
tight around the low. Couple this with minimum afternoon humidity in
in the 30th percentile (or less), and we will be dealing with
increased fire danger.

Monday night and Tuesday, colder air will move into Arkansas as
northwest flow sets up. With several weak systems moving through in
the mean flow, there will be continued cloud cover and slight rain
chances, primarily in the north.

Surface high pressure will pass through the region mid to late week,
with return flow setting up. Temperatures will warm and moisture
will increase by Friday, as another storm system approaches


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


Update...COOPER / Short Term...62 / Long Term...57 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.