Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
676
FXUS64 KLZK 270520 AAC
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Overall forecast will see VFR flight conditions to start. An
isolated showers or thunderstorm may be seen, especially over
southern AR, but coverage will be very low. Late Saturday night to
Sunday morning, areas of fog will form and affect some Taf sites.
MVFR and spotty IFR fog may develop. After sunrise on Sunday, any
fog will gradually thin and dissipate. Sunday afternoon, isolated
convection will again be possible, but coverage is expected to be
low. Winds Saturday night will be light from the east to southeast
or become light and variable Saturday night. On Sunday, winds will
become east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday

What you see is pretty much what you get this period with your
typical summer pattern expected. That being said, numerous issues
still exist mainly with the coverage and intensity of convection.
Tropical system Alberto throws another wild card but the impacts,
if any this period. will be minimal. A general blend of forecast
solutions is preferred.

Upper pattern is characterized by a weak upper disturbance over
the south central/southeast part of the state. The disturbance is
located in a generally broad trough that will help thunderstorms
initiate once again. Already starting to see some signs of this
with scattered convection already beginning. Expect coverage to be
similar or even slightly less to what was seen over the past few
afternoons. Locally heavy rain remains the primary concern with
PWATS between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. The majority of the convection
will dissipate with the loss of heating. As such, a pre-first
period will be added to the forecast.

Thunderstorm coverage expected once again Sunday afternoon but
likely even less than what will be seen this evening. Alberto will
be approaching the coast in the afternoon with surface winds
turning more east to northeast and bringing in some slightly
drier air. Increasing subsidence is also seen which will keep
convection a little more in check. Temperatures will average near
or slightly above normal.

Long Term Period...Monday night through Saturday

The upper low associated with subtropical storm Alberto is
anticipated to be moving into Alabama at the beginning of the
period. An upper trough will be over the northern Plains. Alberto is
expected to move north into Tennessee Tuesday and into southern
Indiana Wednesday. An upper ridge will build over Texas and into the
Plains Thursday and this pattern will continue Friday and Saturday.

The main concern in the long term is Alberto. If it moves north as
forecast, rain will not be much of a concern in Arkansas. We will be
on the subsidence side of the low. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the east but will keep chances low at this time. Above
normal temperatures will continue through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...59



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.