Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1204 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR conditions will continue during the period. A northwesterly
near surface flow of 09-15kts will prevail between 14 and 23z.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 654 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018)

Cyclonic flow wl cont to bring clouds /VFR CIGS/ acrs much of the
FA overnight, eventually decreasing fm the W by Wed morning.
Therefore, VFR conds are expected thru the fcst PD. Breezy NW
winds this evening wl gradually diminish later this evening. /44/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
Plenty of clouds across Arkansas this afternoon, but these
should mostly dissipate overnight as high pressure builds
over the region from the northwest. Winds will decrease
and become less gusty. There is a potential of scattered frost
over northern/western sections of the state, especially in
sheltered valleys.

High pressure will be over the area on Wednesday, with more
sunshine in the forecast. The high will begin exiting to the
east on Thursday, with northwest winds becoming more southerly.
Given the pattern, a warming trend is expected the next couple
of days.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Not a lot of changes in my thoughts from yesterday regarding the
extended forecast. A progressive upper level pattern will persist
through the period, with an upper level ridge building in to the
area, to be quickly replaced by an approaching storm system late in
the weekend through early next week.

With a southerly flow establishing itself fairly early in the
period, plenty of low level moisture should be in place across the
region for low POPs through Friday. By Saturday, a slow moving
frontal boundary will be dropping down across the region, and should
be a focal point for convection. There is a chance that the area
could pick up quite a bit of rainfall if a slowly progressing band
of precipitation sets up and trains across the area.

However, I do have a lot of uncertainties about the timing of the
front, and as to how quickly it will push through the area. With
that in mind, I have spread the POPs out a bit more and lowered the
values a bit until we can get a better handle on how the situation
will pan out. In any event, there is a possibility that quite a bit
of rain could fall through the latter half of the extended period.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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