Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161417

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
917 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018


Quick update this morning needed to lower precipitation chances
for the remainder of today. Main wave of rain associated with the
upper wave has cleared the forecast area but hit or miss type
showers remain. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this
afternoon along the passing cold front but widespread severe
weather chances look unlikely as upper cap looks fairly stout. If
any storm can beak the cap it would be problematic, especially
over the southeast and to lesser extents the east.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 634 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018)

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...


Some MVFR CIGs are ongoing this morning with the scattered
SHRA...with this expected to continue through early this
afternoon. Some isolated TSRA may also be seen this
afternoon/early evening...but coverage will be limited. Expect
improving conditions by late tonight.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

A weak upper level disturbance is passing east over the state early
this Fri morning...with some isolated to scattered SHRA ongoing as a
result. Expect this activity to continue to develop and shift east
from WRN portions of the CWA through the rest of the CWA by mid
morning before moving east of the MS River by midday. Expect
primarily SHRA...though a few isolated TSRA could be seen.

SRLY SFC flow and SW flow aloft will continue to usher in low level
moisture to the region for this afternoon...with a dryline boundary
pushing into WRN sections of the state. Ample instability is
forecast by later this afternoon as temps warm into the 60s and 70s
for highs...and with cooling temps aloft. There will be some
potential for strong to SVR storms this afternoon/early evening
across the ERN two-thirds/half of the state given this potential
instability...along with dry mid level air. However...given the
subsidence behind the morning convection...and with a substantial
forecast capping inversion...most convection will likely be
suppressed as a result. Have only mentioned some slight chance to
chance POPs for this afternoon/evening now given more limited
coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected. If any storms were to develop and
sustain themselves...the threat for SVR storms will be
present...with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards

By late tonight and for much of Sat...expect upper level ridging to
return over the state...keeping the potential for SHRA/TSRA low.
Precip chances return to the forecast for portions of SW AR by late
Sat night.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period as a mid level wave kicks out of Texas and interacts with a
warm boundary near or to the south of Arkansas. Precipitation will
move north/northeastward as the warm front advances into the state
on Sunday afternoon or evening.

Strong storms would be a possibility on Sunday, primarily north of
the warm boundary. Forecast mid level lapse rates support an
elevated hail threat, but instability will be a big question mark.

Additional showers/storms will be possible late Sunday into Monday,
as a cold and an occluded front sweep across the region. With the
associated surface low deepening as it moves into the Mid South
region, the gradient around it will increase. As a result, winds
will be elevated.

Dry air will move in behind the front, with rain chances diminishing
during the day. However, there will be an increase in rain chances
late Monday, as an upper low and trough move down in the mean


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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