


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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836 FXUS64 KLZK 110509 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1209 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Latest objective surface analysis indicates MUCAPE values over 2000 j/kg across the forecast area, with values over 4000 centered along the river valley. Despite the energy to support convection, forcing for initiation is very weak and small scale in nature. Only isolated cells were noted as of 19z. Any additional cells that do form will dissipate by 01z. Similar conditions are expected to develop on Friday, with eastern sections favored for single cell development. On Sunday, a weak cold front will approach the forecast area from the north. This feature is not expected to reach far into the forecast area, However, the feature will be close enough to provide adequate forcing to support convective development, especially across northern sections. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Expect an upper level high to expand from the southern plains, through the mid south to the mid Atlantic region during this period. Very warm conditions are expected during this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. S-SW winds may increase through the middle of the day Friday at some terminals with gusts above 15 kts possible. Afternoon isolated showers/storms will be possible once again, but limited coverage is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 94 74 94 73 / 20 10 30 20 Camden AR 96 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 10 Harrison AR 92 72 89 70 / 10 10 50 40 Hot Springs AR 97 74 96 74 / 10 0 20 10 Little Rock AR 94 75 95 75 / 20 0 20 10 Monticello AR 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 10 Mount Ida AR 94 73 94 73 / 10 0 20 20 Mountain Home AR 92 71 91 71 / 20 10 50 30 Newport AR 95 73 95 74 / 20 0 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 94 74 95 75 / 20 10 10 10 Russellville AR 95 73 94 74 / 10 0 20 20 Searcy AR 94 73 94 73 / 20 0 20 20 Stuttgart AR 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...67