Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211744 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018


For the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate this
afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms move into the
area from the west. Continue to expect mainly SHRA, with
intermittent TSRA. The heavier rain should move out Sunday
morning, but VCSH will continue with scattered showers. Expect
winds to switch to a more northerly direction Sunday morning and


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 520 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018)

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...


Most of the precip should remain west of the TAF sites this
morning...but will start to see precip spread further east this
afternoon and especially overnight into Sun morning. Expecting
mainly SHRA...with a few TSRA also possible. Expect some MVFR or
briefly lower conditions with the most intense activity.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

A slow moving upper level closed low is approaching the state from
the west early this morning...with some scattered SHRA and isolated
TSRA over central and portions of ERN OK. NE SFC flow continues over
AR...keeping moisture levels low so far...with dewpts in the 20s and
30s across the NERN half of AR...and 40s across the SW.

This NE SFC flow will keep the drier air over much of the CWA this
morning...keeping most of the precip at bay. However...moisture
levels will begin to increase across the W/SW...with some SHRA
possible across WRN sections of the CWA this morning. However...only
mention slight chance POPs through 18Z across the WRN counties as
coverage and likelihood are fairly limited.

Moisture levels really increase by this afternoon as the closed low
moves closer to AR...and SFC low pressure develops to the SW of AR.
This SFC low will lift slowly NE into far SRN AR by late
tonight...with SHRA becoming more widespread over a good portion of
the CWA. Given the limited instability expected...have only
mentioned isolated TSRA for now...with the primary hazards limited
to some locally heavy rain and a resulting isolated flash flood
threat. Rainfall amounts through early Sun morning will range from 1
to nearly 2 inches across the SWRN two-thirds/three-fourths of the
CWA. Lesser amounts are expected across the far north and east. If
any strong storms were to develop...the best chances will be across
SRN sections of the CWA late this afternoon and through
tonight...with the main threat being some small hail given the
elevated convective nature expected.

Scattered to numerous SHRA and a few isolated TSRA will remain
possible on Sun as the upper closed low slowly rotates over the
region. The overall coverage of precip will gradually shift E/NE
over time as well...with additional rainfall amounts of one-half
to one inch across ERN sections of the CWA Sun into Sun night.
Less than one-half inch of additional precip is expected further
west Sun/Sun night. With the center of the upper closed low
shifting east of the state by the end of the short term
period...decrease POPs significantly by Mon morning.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Surface and upper systems will be moving away from the state Monday
and Monday night, with rain chances decreasing. Another cold front
will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will bring
another chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
follow this front, with another cold front expected toward the end
of the week. Through the period, temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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