586
FXUS64 KLZK 291135
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Most of the convection has ended across the LZK CWA early this Sun
morning...but some isolated/scattered SHRA were redeveloping across
NERN sections. This will be the area of the state where some
continued chances for SHRA/isolated TSRA will remain this morning as
weak upper wave moves NERN AR. Chances for diurnally driven
convection will be up once again this Sun afternoon for much of
central to NRN/NERN AR. Coverage of convection will decrease tonight
into Mon morning with the loss of daytime heating.

While more diurnally driven convection will be seen again on
Mon...these chances for precip will likely continue into the
overnight hrs Mon night as a weak front drops south towards...and
maybe even into NRN AR by Mon night.

The overall threat for strong to SVR weather will remain low each
day. However...a couple strong to briefly SVR TSRA may be seen. The
main threats will be downburst winds...marginally SVR hail...and
locally heavy rainfall.

The oppressive heat potential will have decreased some late this
weekend into early this week due to the increased coverage of
convection and resulting cloud cover. This will tend to keep temps
from warming too far. As a result...heat headlines are not expected
at this time. However...there will still be areas that see heat
index values in the upper 90s to just over 100 at times each
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

To begin, an upper ridge will build and amplify across the Srn
Rockies with a short wave trough sliding into the TN/OH Valley
regions. Between systems, NW upper flow will be place across the
nations mid-section. At the surface a stationary front will be
positioned across the Nrn half of the state on Tuesday. With the
approach of the ridge from the W in conjunction with surface flow
switching from NErly to SWrly, the frontal boundary will lift NEwrd
as a warm front during the day on Wednesday. Thursday through
Saturday, the upper ridge will move Ewrd centering itself over the
SErn CONUS. Upper level energy is expected to move around the
periphery of the ridge into the weekend.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
associated with the frontal boundary. This front will serve as the
source for convergence and lift Tuesday and Wednesday. Between
Thursday and Saturday, additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible as aforementioned upper level impulses move across the
region around the periphery of high pressure aloft. During the long
term, PoP chances are anticipated to be greatest during the
afternoon and early evening hours with the aid of diurnal heating.
Even so, PoP chances each day top out between 20 and 30 percent. PW
values are forecasted to top out around 2" and with weak storm flow,
thunderstorms could produce efficient rainfall rates. If storms
happen to train over the same locations or heavy rain impacts the
same locations over a short duration of time, isolated flash
flooding will be possible. Organized severe weather is not likely,
however briefly gusty winds could accompany the strongest of storms.

Temperatures through the period should top out in the upper 80s to
mid 90s for highs, and upper 60s to mid 70s for lows. Heat index
values will creep upwards each day heading through the weekend. By
Saturday, heat index values should range from 95 to 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Mix of MVFR/VFR conds are possible across Nrn terminals through
~14z due to patchy FG. Elsewhere, VFR conds should prevail.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible again on Sun across Nrn sites; it
is in these locations with the highest PoP chances. Cntrl
terminals may have afternoon/evening convection. Chances for
precip across Srn terminals is much lower thus mentioned
accordingly in the TAFs. Winds should be light and variable at
around 5-10 kts today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  74  91  73 /  60  20  60  40
Camden AR         95  74  95  72 /  20  10  30  30
Harrison AR       88  72  88  68 /  50  30  70  30
Hot Springs AR    94  75  93  73 /  20  10  50  40
Little Rock   AR  93  76  93  73 /  40  20  50  40
Monticello AR     93  76  93  75 /  30  10  40  40
Mount Ida AR      93  74  91  72 /  20  10  50  40
Mountain Home AR  88  71  89  70 /  60  30  70  30
Newport AR        91  75  93  74 /  60  20  60  40
Pine Bluff AR     91  75  93  73 /  30  20  50  40
Russellville AR   94  74  92  73 /  30  20  60  40
Searcy AR         91  73  93  73 /  50  20  60  30
Stuttgart AR      90  76  93  74 /  40  20  50  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70