Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 182342 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.



VFR prevails through the entire period. Sporadic cumulus should
dissipate after sunset with SCT to BKN high clouds tomorrow,
especially across eastern AR. L/V winds overnight will become
southerly through the day Saturday and could be gusty.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 137 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

The upper disturbance to the NE of the CWA this afternoon will
gradually move east of the area by tonight...with just some isolated
afternoon/early evening TSRA possible across NERN sections of the
area. Though tonight and for much of Sat...upper level ridging will
increase over the state...allowing for temps to warm a few deg
compared to previous days. Expect highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
Heat index values may also creep upward...with some 90s heat index
values expected...possible nearing 100 during the peak heat of the
afternoon hrs. Precip chances should remain low...with maybe an
isolated TSRA also possible during the peak heating.

The main upper ridge will shift east for Sun...with AR under SW flow
aloft by the end of the short term period. However...temps look to
be similar to Sat highs...though maybe a deg or two cooler. Precip
chances will remain limited...though may see a bit higher potential
for some isolated afternoon convection.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

It looks like the upper ridge will contract a bit, which will allow
a frontal boundary to move near or even into the region early next
week. The upper flow will transition more to a quasi-zonal setup,
with disturbances moving through each day. If anything, it will keep
rain chances over us through much of the period.

Temperature forecast remains low confidence, as cloud cover and
rainfall will play a big part in determining how high daytime maxes


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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