286
FXUS64 KLZK 130557
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

-Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun-
 Mon.

-Hot and humid conditions will become more widespread by mid-week
 with many areas expected to see heat indices of 100 to 105 at
 times.

-There will be continued chances for widespread rain and
 thunderstorms through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the
region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will
lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms
across the state today and again Monday. There will be some breaks
in precip at times, but several rounds of precip are expected
with the bulk of the activity influenced by daytime heating and
afternoon instability. Remnant boundaries and sfc features like
the MCV just to the west will help focus precip and may encourage
activity to persist into the overnight hours. Weak shear with PW
values in excess of 2 inches will contribute to some of these
storms producing very heavy rainfall.

With today and tomorrow`s increased coverage in precip and cloud
cover, temperatures may remain near to below normal across a good
chunk of the state. The areas most likely to see these reduced
temperatures include west and northern portions of the state.

Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as
the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and
SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state. This
will lead to a general increase in temperatures and limit precip
chances to isolated, diurnally driven activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Occasional impacts from RA/TS activity will be possible across
area terminals through the period. This could lead to periods of
reduced cigs/vsby as well as erratic/strong wind gusts. Portions
of west and north Arkansas may see some of the most widespread
coverage through the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions and S-SW
winds up to 10 kts are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  72  89  72 /  70  30  60  10
Camden AR         93  73  93  72 /  50  30  50  10
Harrison AR       83  68  84  68 /  80  30  50  20
Hot Springs AR    90  71  90  72 /  70  30  60  10
Little Rock   AR  91  74  91  74 /  60  30  60  10
Monticello AR     93  75  93  75 /  40  20  50  10
Mount Ida AR      87  70  88  71 /  80  40  60  20
Mountain Home AR  84  70  85  69 /  80  30  60  10
Newport AR        90  74  90  73 /  60  20  50  10
Pine Bluff AR     92  74  92  74 /  50  20  50  10
Russellville AR   88  72  89  72 /  80  30  60  20
Searcy AR         90  73  90  72 /  60  30  60  10
Stuttgart AR      91  75  91  75 /  50  20  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67