Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Scattered, very light precipitation continues to affect eastern
portions of the forecast area. Have made minor adjustments to
near term forecasts to account for observational trends.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 619 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018)

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...


Some isolated to scattered SHRA will remain possible across NRN
into ERN sections of the state through this afternoon...with best
chances moving east over time. Expect CIGs as low as LIFR early at
the NRN terminals...then likely see CIGs lift to MVFR...and
occasionally VFR this afternoon. Most widespread improvements will
hold off until Tue after sunrise.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The center of the closed upper low is centered over central/NRN
portions of the CWA early this morning...with only some scattered
SHRA ongoing across NERN sections of the area. Some lighter pockets
of rain or sprinkles are ongoing further west over NWRN sections of
the state...with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. This closed upper
low will continue to spin over the area today...gradually moving
east of AR by later this afternoon. Best POPs will remain over the
NERN third of the CWA this morning...then mainly across ERN sections
by this afternoon/evening. There may be the stray SHRA or some light
rain further west...but chances will be more limited.

By late tonight and for much of Tue...the closed upper low will have
moved well east of the state...with mainly dry conditions expected.
Even with NW flow aloft and near the SFC...a mostly sunny sky will
allow for warming temps across the area. Highs will warm from the
upper 50s to near 70 this the 60s and to near 80 for
Tue. A new storm system will approach the region late Tue
night...with some light chance POPs forecast for early Wed morning
across WRN AR.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

In the wake of the frontal passage, and as an upper level system
moves down in quasi-meridional flow aloft, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure will follow, with another cold front and upper
level system moving through around Friday, bringing another chance
for rain. High pressure will follow these systems, with the weekend
looking dry and fairly pleasant (for now), as upper ridging centered
over the western Gulf expands northward. Throughout the period,
temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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