191
FXUS65 KPIH 121946
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
146 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
eastern Idaho this afternoon as the region remains on the
northern periphery of an area of high pressure to the south. The
only weather concern the remainder of the day are the breezier
winds in the Snake Plain and out into the Arco Desert. They`re
generally below advisory levels but are getting close across the
INL although this is nothing unusual for the area. Not expecting
any precip today as temps climb into the 80s for most, mid to
upper 70s across the high country with ample sunshine. Lows
tonight will be in the 40s and 50s and it will be hot on Thursday
with highs in the 80s mountains and lower 90s in much of the
Eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. Hi-res CAMs show a low
potential for some showers (maybe a thunderstorm) tomorrow
afternoon and evening across the Magic Valley, South Hills and
Snake Plain. Current forecast has very low-end PoPs, just high
enough to trigger some mention in the forecast, but only in a few
spots. We`ll see if the next run of model guidance pushes things a
bit higher. Winds shouldn`t be as breezy either and with the warm
temperatures, it will be quite toasty outside. A major, unusual
late spring cool-down is coming though in the extended. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday
Friday and Saturday look pretty breezy as low pressure skirts by
us to the north and west. Across the INL, there is a 45-65% chance
of exceeding 30mph sustained and 25-45% chance of gusts higher
than 45mph Friday...which is the the threshold for WIND ADVISORY.
On Saturday, there is a 60-90% chance of exceeding 45mph gusts and
sustained 30 mph across the Arco Desert and INL area. In fact
there is a 30-50% chance of 40+mph sustained winds and 20-50%
probability of gusts more than 55 mph...which hits HIGH WIND
WARNING thresholds across the INL. We will need to monitor these
trends to see headlines will be needed for one or both days. We
should see a few showers and storms Friday across the eastern
highlands. We will likely NOT see anything Saturday, although a
few could develop just north of the Montana border. Heading into
early next week, we are temporarily forgetting that it is June
weather-wise, as a decent area of low pressure will bring a huge
drop in temperatures along with a better chance of precipitation.
Our Blend of Models is hitting this pretty hard, and when looking
at the ensembles...the GFS and ECMWF are similar. The current
forecast highs on Monday with the Blend are 50s and 60s in the
valleys, and 30s/40s in the mountains. Yes...you read that
correctly. We should recover quickly after that. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...
We will see some gusty winds through this evening at all
TAF sites, with gusts around 20-25kt at times. VFR weather is on tap
even with some mid level clouds arriving. At the moment, we aren`t
seeing enough potential for any type of shower or thunderstorm
development...but don`t be surprised to see some virga around.  Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures are still on a warming trend, but a trough passing
well to the north in Canada will bring an increase in humidity
from today to Thu. Strong westerly to southwesterly flow will
continue, peaking in the afternoon and evening at the surface.
Inversions will still develop and there should be some relief from
the wind until the inversion breaks mid-day. Low elevations in
the Salmon Challis NF region and over the Arco Desert and Lava
Beds should see humidity drop below 15 percent today, not quite as
much on Thu, even though temperatures reach their hottest on Thu
afternoon. Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$