Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 221937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
137 PM MDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Saturday night through Tuesday. Afternoon high
temperatures rise another 5 to 6 degrees on Sunday under an
increasing high pressure ridge. The picture begins to change Sunday
night with a low pressure system deepening just off the Pacific
Northwest Coast. Sunday night southwesterly flow will bring
increasing moisture from off the Pacific and some from Mexico into
this area. There is a slight chance of showers near Bear lake and
Soda Springs by Monday morning and a slight chance of thunderstorms
in the Eastern Highlands in the afternoon. Deeper moisture advances
into the Central Mountains on Tuesday where scattered showers are
expected through the day. Snow levels should be near 8500 feet
elevation on Tuesday, so snow accumulations will be limited to 1 to
3 inches at higher elevations. RS

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. Both GFS/ECMWF begin
long-term period with showers across the area, but those quickly
move out of the area late Tuesday night. Both models amplify upper
ridge over the Intermountain West, the ECMWF showing a more
amplified pattern. Upper trough should swing through the area
Thursday night or Friday morning with the ECMWF supporting the
earlier timing. Began ramping up PoPs Friday through Saturday
morning. Guidance is also supporting higher temps Thursday and
Friday. Nudged highs upward, but still a little cooler than
guidance. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Mid and high clouds will continue across the area
through the period. Winds should remain light. Hinsberger


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.


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