Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 301947
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
147 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS AT LEAST TWO EMBEDDED WAVES IN IT. THE FIRST IS MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIR AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF ARCO. A COUPLE OF CELLS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH BUT SO FAR HAVE BEEN ON THE WEEK SIDE. THIS WILL BE
A WATCH AN SEE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE STATE FAIR IN
BLACKFOOT. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS BREAK BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO OREGON RIGHT NOW. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD REACH CLOSE TO BLACKFOOT ABOUT
7-8 PM THIS EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR A SPRINKLE OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FOR LATE GOERS. THE CELLS TO THE NORTH HAVE BEEN ON THE
WET SIDE...ISLAND PARK HAS RECEIVED 0.29 INCHES RAIN IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...ABOUT .08 INCHES AT ARCO. THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE SECOND WAVE
SHOULD CLEAR IDAHO FALLS CLOSE TO SUNRISE SUNDAY...LEAVING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF IDAHO FALLS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE BREEZY SIDE BUT LESS THAN
TODAY...PERHAPS 10-15 MPH GUST 25 MPH. THE FAIR SHOULD AVOID SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
A FEW DEGREES...WINDS EASE OFF A LITTLE MORE. MODELS ARE STILL
WRESTLING WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS WANTS TO
SPLIT THE FLOW PATTERN...TRYING TO CUT OFF A CIRCULATION NEAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE OTHER MODELS FAVOR THE TROUGH STAYING
CONSOLIDATED AND LIMITING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD OF
THIS AREA AS IT PASSES. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. RS
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.   HAVE VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALL SITES BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
IDA.  10 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT PIH...BYI AND IDA EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z.  HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS WITH SECOND WAVE TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING TO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE ONCE AGAIN AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.   AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN ZONES.  WILL HAVE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY.   WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.   EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$







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