Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 010837
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. THIS WILL TURN OUR FLOW MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND WILL
BE QUITE A BIT DRIER. ANY THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED
AND MOSTLY LIKELY NEAR ISLAND PARK DOWN TO DRIGGS AND SOUTH OF
BURLEY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER BUT STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE. IT WILL BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY TODAY AND ON FRIDAY AND RUNNING IN THE 15-20MPH
RANGE SUSTAINED. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FORECAST MAY NOT SIT WELL WITH FOLKS WHO ARE OUTSIDE
CELEBRATING. WHILE THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
EVOLVING PATTERN...THEY ALL PAINT A STORMY FEW DAYS ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW ACROSS CANADA DROPS...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND THE FLOW OF MOISTURE. THE
GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. IF
THE GFS VERIFIES...THAT WOULD LIKELY BE A MORE STORMY/WET PATTERN
SINCE IT WOULD BE TAPPING INTO BETTER MOISTURE. THIS WOULD BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE OUT BEYOND MONDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
INITIALLY BE WET BUT THEN DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY. THE 4TH WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S AND THE HIGH COUNTRY
RUNNING BETWEEN 75 AND 90 DEGREES. WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEYOND THAT...BUT ONLY BY 5-9 DEGREES.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
VFR. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND AT THE SAME
TIME PREVENT ANY MONSOON MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTH INTO IDAHO. THE
PICTURE IS NOT PERFECT...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR FRIDAY EVENING THAT CREEPS ACROSS THE BORDER NEAR SALMON FALLS
RESERVOIR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT. TEMPERATURES TREND UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE ARCO DESERT...BIRCH
CREEK...BIG AND LITTLE LOST VALLEYS WILL BE 10-13 PERCENT THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. FOR SATURDAY THE FOURTH...HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REFOCUS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BUT WITH A LITTLE
ELONGATION TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT STILL LEAVES THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MOISTURE SLIPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
AREA OF IDAHO...AND LEAVING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE DRY SIDE.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW  PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THE FRONT TRAILS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE PANHANDLE AND SALMON AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
STRONG THE WINDS COULD BE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG WIND DAY BUT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTY LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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