Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 161957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Upper ridge axis shifts
across region Tuesday with weak shortwave driving across the
Idaho panhandle Tuesday night into Wednesday. Should be a slight
uptick in cloud cover but no precipitation. Afternoon winds also
see an uptick as well, but currently expected to remain well below
any impactful thresholds. Cloud cover expected to suppress upward
trend in daytime highs slightly, but temps still remaining quite
warm. Ridge drastically rebounds into Thursday ahead of Pacific
trough nearing the coast. Warmest temps of the week are likely on
Thursday with flow aloft turning southwest ahead of trough. DMH

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday. Most of the impact of
the extended range fall in the early periods. Pacific trough
shifts inland Thursday night. Models are beginning to consolidate
solutions with precipitation spreading into the central mountains
06-12Z. Upper trough shifts across East Idaho during the day
Friday. Cold front drives through early to mid-day, strengthening
gradient and bringing another shot at wind headlines for portions
of the Snake Plain. Showers drive across the region during the day
as well with Friday daytime expected to be the wettest period.
Snow levels start out high, falling close to valley floors in the
central mountains. Snake Plain and lower elevations east/south
stay warm enough to see rain through the event, even behind the
front Friday night. Shortwave trough stays shallow and
progressive, so it is expected to move through quickly with
precipitation ending most areas Friday night. Saturday the coolest
day behind the front. Shallow ridge builds back into the region
for Saturday night through Monday, but nearly zonal flow into the
Washington state/ BC Canada region could drag showers across the
panhandle, creeping into the central mountains both days. Have
left weak precip chances across the area with temperatures slowly
warming back to slightly above normals through the remainder of
the period. DMH


.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday.
 Winds will remain light overnight tonight but could see some
upslope wind gusts of 10 to 15 mph on Tuesday afternoon at BYI...PIH
and IDA. So any wind increase will be slight. GK



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