Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 262054
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE NEXT UPSTREAM PAC DISTURBANCE DIGGING SSE
ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD CLOSER
AGREEMENT IN DRIVING THE DISTURBANCE INTO WRN OREGON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WHILE MAINTAINING THE BULK OF THE PCPN IMPACTS
OVER OREGON AND NW NEVADA WITH SOME INTRUSION INTO THE CNTRL AND
SOUTH-CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SSE FRIDAY
NIGHT SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PCPN CORE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
IF THE LOW TREKS FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT MODEL PROGS ARE
SUGGESTING THEN WE WOULD BE UNDERPLAYING THE PCPN POTENTIAL ACROSS
SE IDAHO IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT TRACK OR TREND FURTHER WEST LIKE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING
THEN THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. HAVE DECREASED THE
PCPN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS FOR NOW WHILE MAINTAINING
FAIRLY HEALTHY PCPN PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE WRN-CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH-CNTRL HIGHLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW DRIFTS INTO AND DOWN
THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERSPREADING SE IDAHO SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUS NEXT WEEK IS
ON UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BC MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. GFS/ECMWF
DELIVER HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
VALLEY FLOORS...SO ESTIMATED SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH IDAHO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SNOW TAPERS OFF...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY WITH LOWS DROPPING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AND RIDGING
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.
HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME VCSH AROUND KBYI. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR
KSUN DROPS CEILING 2000 TO 3000 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









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