Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 232053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
153 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Moisture will continue to
wrap around a center of low pressure, which is north of
Pocatello/west of Idaho Falls this afternoon. A band of heavy snow
is noted south of American Falls with blowing snow encompassing
the Eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain. This will
continue through the evening. Heavy snow is forecast over the
Arco Desert, Southern Highlands, Central Mountains and Upper Snake
Plain this evening and into the overnight hours with areas of
blowing snow. Additional snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches at
valley floors and 6 to 10 inches at mountain passes are expected
tonight, tomorrow and even into Saturday morning for some. Select
locations may see less than 3 inches and it is very dependent on
where wrap-around moisture bands set up tonight/tomorrow. Right
now, select locations could very likely get more snow as well.
Confidence in snowfall amounts is thus low or moderate to low
through tomorrow as a result. Precip in areas to the west,
including Burley and Shoshone will end first Friday evening.
Gradual improving weather conditions are forecast for Saturday for
the remainder of the region, however, some lingering light snow
showers will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Upper
Snake Highland locations and Central Mountains will be the last to
see snow to end. NP/JAM


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. Made mainly minor
adjustments to going extended range forecast. Models favor weak
shortwave dropping through region Saturday with mainly light higher
elevation snows. Stronger feature arrives late Sunday and continues
into Monday night. ECMWF initially sharper with this feature but
keeps timing in line with operational GFS and ensembles. Some
deviation leaning into Tuesday night and Wednesday as the models try
to push energy east with ridge building across the PacNW ahead of
much stronger low spinning up near Alaska. Quite a bit of
uncertainty that far out so trended with drier and continued cool
guidance. DMH


.AVIATION...Slow moving surface low is bringing IFR conditions at
least intermittently to KPIH, KBYI, and KIDA, and moisture expected
to increase at KSUN to bring a threat of at least marginal VFR this
evening and late may even close that airdrome. KDIJ will take a
while, but even this airport should come close to closure conditions
this evening. Messick


.HYDROLOGY...Have trimmed out the lava fields of Blaine and Minidoka
counties, but otherwise the Flood Warnings and Advisories are
unchanged. Widespread flood damage continues in Lincoln, Minidoka
counties, while the Goose Creek drainage and the Raft River valley
continue to have problems in Cassia County, although the Raft River
only rises to Advisory status. Rural areas north and west of the
American Fall Reservoir continue to have major problems, as does the
stretch of the Bear River from Grace southward to the Utah border in
Caribou and Franklin counties. The upper Snake River plain continues
under Advisory with some partial receding due to sub-freezing
temperatures returning. Messick


Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST Friday for IDZ021.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for IDZ020-

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for IDZ017-022.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for IDZ018-019-


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