Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 250859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
259 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.
Will have isolated to scattered rain showers again today through
not expecting nearly as much precipitation as on Monday and Monday
night. Expect the brunt of it to be in central mountains and
southern and eastern highlands as well. Mild southwesterly flow
aloft will continue through Thursday and above normal temperatures
will continue through the entire short term period. Will have dry
conditions tonight through Thursday with some moisture expected to
return Thursday night into the Central Mountains once again and
have added a chance of showers.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday night. The GFS and ECMWF
continue to differ on timing of systems thru the extended period.
The first wave on Fri...ECMWF a little faster with the precip but
not enough to alter the fcst. On Sat...the ECMWF is ridge dominant
while the GFS keeps precip over the eastern highlands. On Sun...both
models bring the main upper low into the Pac NW. The GFS spreads
precip across the fcst area while the ECMWF holds it to the west.
Will go closer to the GFS on Sun. The ECMWF finally brings the
precip in Sun night...with the GFS backing off to scattered showers.
Both models are in agreement with scattered showers on Mon. Finally
by Tue...the GFS holds on to the split flow trof over the Great
Basin while the ECMWF keeps it off the CA coast. The GFS has backed
off on precip with this the solution is not too far off
from the ECMWF. Will stay with a few mtn showers Mon night thru Tue
night. Hedges


.AVIATION...The main band of precip has moved east as of early
morn...taking the lower cigs along with. A few showers are possible
thru today...but cigs are expected to remain VFR. Hedges


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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