Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 272003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night. Shortwave axis
dropping through central mountains this afternoon per sat imagery.
Airmass destabilizing again after this morning`s round of
thunderstorms, and isolated storms have already formed ahead of
shortwave axis and moved into Snake Plain and Upper Snake region.
Expect potential for localized hail and wind severe threats. At
this time, do not expect much activity to survive too far past
sundown. Breezy winds continue through the day but gradient
decreases after sundown. Shortwave axis pushing through WA/OR
timed to push through East Idaho during the day Wednesday, so one
more round of thunderstorms expected. Breezy winds return, but
mainly for afternoon and early evening. Models try to extend
convective activity past sundown, so kept weak showers mainly
along the WY border. DMH

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Independence Day. Upper ridge shifts
across the region Thursday into Friday with drier weather
expected. Look for temps to surge again ahead of next trough
arriving Saturday. Models becoming a little more consistent in
developing daytime convection ahead of trough axis Saturday,
followed by another period of quiet weather Sunday into Monday.
Both GFS and ECMWF are trying to hint at a weak shortwave for
Tuesday/July 4th, but confidence is pretty low at this point. So
kept forecast dry and warm for now. DMH


.AVIATION...Sunny/VFR conditions continue at KBYI/KSUN through
tonight. KIDA/KDIJ will continue to see periods of thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Most storms will likely produce hail
around 1/2" and wind gusts 30-35mph, but can`t rule out a stronger
storm at this time. Showers expected to weaken after sundown and
likely dissipate completely before/around midnight. KPIH on the
edge of seeing the convective activity, and at the very least
could see gusty winds associated with outflow boundaries from the
north. Another round of convection expected to develop early
afternoon Wednesday, and have already hinted at thunderstorm
development at KSUN, though this likely to spread to other
terminals as well. DMH


.FIRE WEATHER...Look for scattered to numerous showers and isolated
to scattered thunderstorms mainly across the Southeast Central
mountains, Lost River/Pahsimeroi mountains, the Upper Snake River
Plain, Upper Snake Highlands, and the Bear Lake region. Gusty
outflow winds will remain possible through this evening. A cold
front moving through Idaho today will bring cooler temperatures and
slightly higher humidity...but also moderate to strong westerly
winds by this afternoon. Thunderstorms are again a threat on
Wednesday...but mainly along the Montana divide, Wyoming and
Southeast Utah borders. The rest of the week into the weekend looks
dry with warmer conditions as high pressure ridging builds in.


.HYDROLOGY...Additional light to moderate precipitation from
yesterday and today as well as very warm temperatures from yesterday
will help keep flows elevated if not slightly increasing by
tomorrow. However, cooler temperatures today and tomorrow will help
decrease flows by Friday and Saturday. For those areas with
remaining high elevation snow, which is the Central Mountains, Big
Lost and the Tetons, they will see increase flows next week after a
return of very warm temperatures this weekend into next week. Wyatt



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