Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290804
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. WV imagery this morning
shows upper ridge deamplifying and shifting to the east. This will
allow moisture to reach the Central Mountains later this afternoon
ahead of a developing upper split trough. We see indications of
the split as early as Thursday morning by both the GFS and NAM. At
the surface, a cold front will pass through Thursday afternoon
allowing cooler air to filter into the valleys and snow levels
will accordingly fall--possibly to valley floors--Thursday night
and Friday morning. Central Mountains may see about 8 to 12 inches
through Friday afternoon with lesser amounts expected over the
Southeastern Highlands, and possibly up to 1 inch on the benches.
With the cold front passing Thursday afternoon, winds will
increase until around sunset, then pick back up again on Friday
and shift out of the north/northeast. tral Mountains may see about 8 to 12 inches
through Friday afternoon with lesser amounts expected over the
Southeastern Highlands, and possibly up to 1 inch oHinsberger

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. Saturday looks dry, GFS
and European agree on that much, but that`s about it. Both models
are having significant timing differences in developing the next
low pressure system. GFS is faster in developing the low than the
European. As a result, GFS begins developing the low on Sunday
over Oregon which leaves us dry for most of the day. GFS brings
precipitation into the region for Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile
the European waits until Sunday night or Monday to develop the low
and develops it over southern Idaho. This brings precipitation
into the area Sunday, and depending upon the track possibly Monday
with dry weather for Tuesday. Both models have been consistently
different over the past 3 days. However, the GFS has been more
consistent with its solution and it seems that the latest European
is trending more towards the GFS. Forecast remains rather
uncertain but leans more towards the GFS. Valle

&&

.AVIATION...Some patchy low stratus is possible early this morning
although high clouds over the region may keep temps warm enough from
that occurring. Otherwise, expect vfr conditions through the day
with winds picking up this afternoon ahead of the next system.
Showers will overspread the area this afternoon and evening with
deteriorating conditions likely through the evening.

Valle

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Snowmelt and QPF-driven runoff will continue to
contribute to flooding across parts of the forecast area. River
flooding continues along the Portneuf River in Pocatello, and
along the Bear River near the WY border. Hinsberger

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for IDZ017>019-022>025-031-
032.

&&

$$


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