Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 170906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
IDAHO. WILL HAVE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN THE LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN. WILL HAVE A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS NOW AGREEING WITH UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. DECIDED TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN GRIDS IN MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN GFS WITH GFS KEEPING RAIN TO
THE SOUTH WHILE EUROPEAN SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PUSHES EAST.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO EAST IDAHO TODAY AHEAD
OF PACIFIC TROUGH. MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF KSUN/KPIH LINE. GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL LIKELY THREATS. MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AROUND
SUNSET BUT ANOTHER SURGE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO
PULL MOISTURE INTO EAST IDAHO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER EAST
IDAHO. HIGHEST PW VALUES FOR THURSDAY PEAKING NEAR ONE INCH IN
SOUTHEAST CORNER SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DMH

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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