Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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990
FXUS65 KPIH 020833
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
233 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON
THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, WE ARE STILL LOOKING
FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AND WARMER AFTERNOONS. WE WILL KEEP THE
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR MORE RURAL
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT THE COOLER
LOWS MAY NOT EXTEND INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY. WE WILL LET THE CURRENT
ONE EXPIRE AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE ANOTHER HEADLINE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. THE NAM KEEPS TRYING TO FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS ON THE WYOMING SIDE OF THE BORDER AND ALSO TO THE NORTHWEST
OF STANLEY AND CHALLIS. IN ORDER TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE DID INCLUDE AROUND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS LIKELY A STRETCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND
THE HUGE LOW FORECAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS. BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN INITIALLY DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. KEYES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLIFIED PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AND CUTS OFF DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOIST FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER EAST IDAHO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START EJECTING EAST WITH
ANOTHER BLOCKING HIGH TRYING TO SET UP OVER BC CANADA PER GFS AND
ENSEMBLES. ECMWF COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS INSTEAD DROPPING
ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
DRIER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR NOW. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



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