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000
FXUS65 KPIH 140244
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
844 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT....THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE MONTANA BORDER. SATELLITE SHOWS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING TAKING PLACE AROUND BURLEY AND SUN VALLEY
AND THIS WILL SPREAD MORE INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH
MORNING. IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. SCALED BACK
THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTING THOUGH TO ISOLATED THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013/

UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT
INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FROM SODA SPRINGS TOWARDS DRIGGS THIS
EVENING. RS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 129 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A DEEP UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONLY PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS WELL AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 7500 FEET AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH INTO LEMHI COUNTY WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL TONIGHT.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BUT THE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS A 70KT 500MB JET MAX MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THINK WINDS WILL BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM
POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS INCLUDING THE ARCO AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE JET MAX EXITS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY COULD BE SHORT LIVED. ALTHOUGH THE MET
GUIDANCE CONTINUES GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEAR CHALLIS AND SALMON.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS WINDS SUBSIDE
AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR. MANY LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND A FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY ON SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT.

VALLE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THIS FLOW.   NAM HAS MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN DRY.   UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GK

AVIATION...10 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN
IDAHO.   GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING TO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE SUSTAINED AT
PIH AND IDA.   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT NORTH AND EAST OF
TAF SITES AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING NEAR
THE AIRPORTS.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM MDT FRIDAY IDZ020-021.

&&

$$