Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 310753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
153 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure aloft will be the main feature
through the week. As a result, warm and dry weather will prevail
with temperatures reaching into the 90s by the weekend. Concern
for northeasterly winds across American Falls Reservoir and rough
choppy waters...but wind speeds fall just shy of the Lake Wind
Advisory criteria. Models flatten the upper ridge around mid-
week as a couple of weak shortwaves push around its northern
periphery. These may trigger isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon in the Upper Snake Highlands as well as some
stronger winds. Ridging amplifies once again Friday and heading
into the weekend, which will result in summer-like weather for the
forecast area. GFS/ECMWF are wanting to lift an upper low over
through California Sunday night and slowly tracking it across the
Great Basin early next week. This should introduce some moisture
to the area and have kept isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the
forecast for the early part of next week. Hinsberger &&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions under a mostly dry NW flow aloft. Huston

.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure was positioned over the
west coast this morning providing a dry NW flow aloft over the
region. Numerical models show a low pressure trough shifting east
into and across WRN Canada today and tonight which should help to
push the ridge east into the Great Basin by Wednesday flattening the
NRN extent of the ridge out encouraging breezy SW winds to develop
over the region and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms along
the Montana divide. Little change is expected Thursday as a
secondary disturbance tracks east along the Canadian border but the
ridge is expected to amplify across the region Friday and Saturday
for much warmer temps heading into the weekend. Huston

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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