Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 310855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
255 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly cooler
temperatures expected today though will hardly be noticeable with
highs still in the 90s. For today, rain and thunderstorm
potentials turn to the extreme Southeast corner of Idaho. We will
look for scattered dry thunderstorm development throughout the day
east of I-15 and south of I-86. Pockets of over 1/10 of an inch
cannot be ruled out across Bear Lake County and Franklin County.
Additionally, scattered dry thunderstorms are also forecast along
the Continental Divide once again through early evening. Precip
amounts will be light and less than 1/10 of an inch in these
locations. Winds today are likely to be of concern for all areas
except for portions of the Southern Highlands, and portions of
the Caribou Highlands in the southeast corner of Idaho, with gusts
exceeding 30 mph this afternoon and evening out of the west and

Warm, southwesterly air comes back into the picture Monday and
Tuesday and temperature will go back up into the mid to upper 90s
for highs. Winds on Tuesday are expected to be quite breezy
through the Snake Plain and Central Mountain locations with gusts
upwards of 30 mph. This trend has been persistent the past few
days therefore confidence is growing. No chance for rain or
thunderstorms anywhere these days either.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday...Late Wednesday,
welcomed cooler temperatures are on their way behind the passage
of a cold front. A good 5 to 8 degree drop from Tuesdays
temperatures are forecast in comparison. Minimums will brush the
freezing mark for portions of the valleys in the Central Mountains
both Thursday and Friday mornings. After the passage of this
front, fairly mild weather conditions are expected during the
latter half of next week under weak high pressure with little to
no chance for rain showers through Friday. By Saturday, model
guidance starts to hint at the next weather system to bring Idaho
thunderstorms. The systems strength and positions between models
is rather different at this time, so we will continue to watch
this systems progression.

.AVIATION...Primary concern today is regarding increasing winds
this afternoon and evening. Expect 15 to 25 mph winds with gusts
to 30 mph. Visibility reductions are possible at KSUN as well from
smoke/haze. While not expected, a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot
completely be ruled out at KPIH or KIDA today. KBYI and KSUN
should be clear. NP/RS

.FIRE WEATHER....Discussion...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
near Bear lake/Caribou Forest and Island Park this morning and
afternoon, otherwise westerly winds aloft are bringing in much
drier air and moving any showers off to the east of the state by
this evening. Strong gusty winds redevelop today in Zones 475 and
476. The Upper Snake Plain will be windy today as well. Red Flag
Warnings are in effect for those areas. For Zone 425, it will be
breezy and dry but average wind gusts will be just below warning
criteria. The very dry air is also boosting the Haines Index to a
6 this afternoon in the area near Leadore and Gilmore. On Monday
and Tuesday, the area of Haines equal to 6 expands to cover most
of Lemhi County and extends from Salmon to Mackay and then
northeast to Monida Pass and Rea. Monday will be a dry day and
with lighter winds. A new cold front is still expected to bring
strong gusty winds on Tuesday for the Salmon- Challis and Idaho
Falls BLM areas, more than likely a Red Flag day for those areas.
Some monsoon moisture will surge back in through the Southern
Sawtooth and Caribou Forest areas Tuesday afternoon to support
isolated thunderstorm development. Wednesday and Thursday look
non-eventful. By Friday, another disturbance begins to enter the
Pacific Northwest. Monsoon moisture will be drawn north to Idaho
ahead of this disturbance, so both Friday and Saturday
thunderstorms are expected. RS


.Air Quality...Gusty winds and low relative humidity today in the
central mountains will favor more smoke development from local
fires. RS


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ410.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ475-476.


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