Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER WRN TEXAS AND EXTENDING NW TO
THE IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER WITH AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM BAJA NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THUS...MOISTURE AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY
THING WE ARE WAITING ON IS A LIFTING MECHANISM. SEVERAL WAVES WERE
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST...LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE
JACKPOT REGION...SHOULD HELP TO ACCENTUATE THE CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SE IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE POSSIBLY SPARKING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PROCESS. FURTHER SOUTH...A SECOND WAVE WAS
NOTED LIFTING ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
BRUNT OF THIS WAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH NRN UTAH INTO SW WYOMING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ATTENDING WEAKER DISTURBANCES TRAIL ACROSS
SE IDAHO. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING
WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS COUPLED WITH THE
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. PLACEMENT OF ALL THESE WAVES IS ADMITTEDLY
DUBIOUS...AND AS WE WORK OUR WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY THE TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE WAVES IS EVEN MORE SUSPECT. WITH THAT SAID...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO STRIP SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE OFF TROPICAL STORM
HERNAN CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND LOFT IT INTO THE
MIX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TARGETING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON THIS
MODEL CYCLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE MONSOON FETCH REMAINS IN PLAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER SW FLOW POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN
PLACE UNTIL THAT TIME AWAITING A LIFTING MECHANISM TO GET THE DANCE
STARTED. FOR NOW...WE CONTINUED THE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH OF
MENTIONING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL THE MODELS BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. THIS WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND. THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WE SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH THAT
ONLY A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WE WENT WITH VCSH VERSUS VCTS IN
THE TAFS. A SYSTEM WILL WORK NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO TOMORROW FOR A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SNAKE PLAIN...AFFECTING KPIH/KIDA/KBYI. WE DID INCLUDE -SHRA
VCTS FOR THOSE SITES AFTER 09Z. KSUN HAS VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH EXPECTED -SHRA VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION TOMORROW. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN
IDAHO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH DAY. SO FAR TODAY...EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT THE THREAT OF THUNDER DOWN WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAVER ON PLACING POCKETS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AND IN FACT EACH RUN. MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MIGHT BE A TREND TOWARD SCATTERED OR GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST (MAINLY ZONE 413)
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...THIS WILL KEEP CRITICAL ZONES OUT OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE BY TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
THERE MAY...AND WE STRESS MAY...BE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY EVEN BECOMES GREATER AFTER MIDWEEK.  THE
THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE MAIN THEME IS BE READY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND BE READY FOR QUICKER CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR HIGHER COVERAGE. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









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