Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 232001
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
201 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday.
Dry and cool conditions today with some 20 to 25 mph wind gusts
mainly in the Snake River Plain and southern highlands. Winds
should dissipate quickly toward sunset and turn more northerly to
northwesterly during the day on Wednesday. An upper level system
is dropping south Wednesday dropping a back door cold front
through Idaho reinforcing the cooler conditions. Little moisture
with the system but think isolated thunderstorms will occur in the
central mountains and Upper Snake Highlands. Do not expect strong
winds after this afternoon for the rest of the short term period
into Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal for late
August through Thursday as well.
GK

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday. Have made only a few
minor changes to going forecast today. Upper trough lingers over
region through Friday with isolated showers and thunderstorms along
Divide. Otherwise flow transitions through zonal regime to
rebuilding of upper ridge over the Rockies early in the week. There
is still some disagreement on how next trough feature will evolve
early next week over the PacNW so have kept region dry/well below
climo as flow turns southwest aloft over East Idaho. Temperatures do
warm back to above normal early next week. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy winds continue today across East Idaho.
Gradient relaxes and turns north or northwest late tonight through
Wednesday. Can expect some areas to see visibilities limited due to
smoke from nearby wildfires. Shortwave drops out of Montana during
the day Wednesday with isolated convection over central mtns and
along Divide. Expect convection to remain north of all TAF sites. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy winds continue today under influence of
robust surface gradient and ample mixing. Relative humidities still
quite dry but so far only isolated wind gusts reaching critical
thresholds. Winds still problematic for some fires. Gradient drops
off significantly overnight and turns northerly Wednesday though
some areas likely to see a northwesterly or westerly surface wind
during the day, especially western portions of district. Feature
dropping south out of Montana Wednesday looks to bring isolated
showers/tstorms to the region, mainly central mountains and along
Divide. Would not be surprised to see a storm migrate into the
northern portions of the Upper Snake Plain as well. Main trough
shifts east Friday/Saturday and northwest flow aloft should be
enough to keep convection out of the area. Upper ridge rebounds over
the Rockies Sunday through early next week, and have kept precip
chances well below climo through the remainder of the forecast
period. DMH

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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