Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
149
FXUS65 KPIH 092120
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST MORE CLOUD COVER
AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SURFACE INVERSIONS. A REPEAT OF FOG MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON UPPER SLOPES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF SNOW. THUS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THIS IS BEING MONITORED. RS

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ON THE
SAME TRACK OF SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE PAC NW. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
THAN THE GFS...WHICH HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. NUDGED MOUNTAIN POPS A BIT HIGHER FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAINING A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. MODELS GENERALLY FAVORING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OVERALL WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING MAINLY
FROM UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. HINSBERGER

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REINFORCE INVERSION CONDITIONS WITH
POOR AIR CIRCULATION. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME INCREASED WINDS ON SATURDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...INVERSION REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING LITTLE MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS WILL SEE FOG/STRATUS PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BYI MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT DID YESTERDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DROP AGAIN BELOW MINIMUM THIS
EVENING. EXCLUDED IN THE FOG/STRATUS MESS IS SUN...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND CHANGES.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ017-
019>021.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.