Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXUS65 KPIH 040902
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
302 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DROPS IN TO OUR
NORTH AROUND THE BIGGER LOW IN CANADA. FOR TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE UTAH BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THAT AREA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME
RAIN. FARTHER NORTH...THERE IS STILL A HINT THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ESPECIALLY FROM MACKAY TO MONIDA. HOWEVER...IT IS
WEAKER THAN FARTHER SOUTH. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED THAT FORMS COULD
FOR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND POP OUT BOUNDARIES OR ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE OVERALL WIND
PATTERN. IT LOOKS WEAKER UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN THE WINDS NOW
LOOK TO ACTUALLY PICK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF STORMS COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY FIREWORKS RELATED
ACTIVITIES LATE THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED ONCE WE GET TO THIS EVENING. AS THE WAVE FROM THE
NORTH DROP INTO NORTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA...IT WILL ABSORB A
WEAK SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND ALSO PULL IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. THAT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR EVERYONE TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO TOMORROW ALSO. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT TODAY...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF YESTERDAY SO MAKE
SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR THE HEAT. IT WILL COOL OFF TOMORROW 5-10
DEGREES THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND
STORMS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS MORE A FUNCTION OF CONFIDENCE
OR LACK OF IT AT THIS POINT. EASTERN IDAHO IS STILL SANDWICHED
BETWEEN ANY SYSTEM THAT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH OUT OF CANADA AND
THE LOW SITTING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
WILL BE KEY AND RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN`T DECIDE ON HOW
MUCH THERE WILL BE IN OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONE WILL BE
WET THEN TREND DRY WITH THE OTHER DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE. THE
END OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...IT ACTS TO
KICK THE CALIFORNIA LOW NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN IT. THERE IS STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT. WE DECIDED TO KEEP
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE USUAL
UPTICK IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. A FEW HEAT OF THE DAY VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULDN`T AFFECT
TAF SITES.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.