Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281646
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TIGHT THROUGHOUT THE STANLEY
BASIN AND THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN THAT REGION. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

WE ARE ENTERING A SHORT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO WARM UP STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS UP NORTH TODAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WHETHER THAT MEANS WE WILL SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE LEMHI COUNTY AND MONTANA
BORDERS...THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE LIKELIHOOD IS ONLY AROUND 10
PERCENT RIGHT NOW. THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND TONIGHT THOUGH IS THE
LINGERING COLD AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT A
FEW MORE DAILY RECORDS FOR THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED OR
BROKEN. WITH EVEN DRIER AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LITTLE WIND...WE
SHOULD END UP COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. THAT SPELLS MORE POCKETS OF
FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SOME PLACE IN UPPER PLAIN MAY ALSO BRIEFLY SEE A FROST. WE
WILL SEE A 10 DEGREE JUMP TOMORROW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE ON WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
EASTERN IDAHO AND ALSO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE AND ALSO POSSIBLY DELAYING BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED STORMS STARTING SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED DUE A SYSTEM SHOWING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS IN BETTER MOISTURE BY
SATURDAY BUT TURNS THE FLOW WESTERLY AND ACTUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ECMWF AT THE MOMENT SEEMS
TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT. WE MAINTAINED SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE
GFS SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO THE 9 TO 12 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE VALLEYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW ONLY A
SLIGHT 2 TO 3 DEGREE WARMING TUESDAY...BUT APPROACH 90 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE CONTINUE TO SEE EVIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FORMING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO GET GOING...FAVORING MORE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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