Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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441
FXUS65 KPIH 180302
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
902 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS EEVNING. SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH
THROUGH NEVADA/UTAH BUT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING NORTH OF
STATE LINE. RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A
WEAK SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DRY ELSEWHERE. HAVE
CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ALONG UTAH BORDER AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TWIN
FALLS/BURLEY AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
NEVADA CONVECTION TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTH. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...YESTERDAYS SYSTEM
EXITING EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND THE NEW SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS FAIRLY
STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. EVEN AROUND BEAR LAKE...CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN MAKING IT NOT LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO SHOW
THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND THE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEW LOW AS WELL. SMALL HAIL AND A FEW WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMES
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE LIKE THE LAST EVENT...MODELS
ARE TRYING TO FRAGMENT THIS LOW INTO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS
STRETCHED ALONG THE SOUTHERN IDAHO BORDER ARE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THAT MAKES IT A LITTLE TRICKY TO FIGURE WHAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD LOOK LIKE ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT HIGH CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. RS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.   MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.   THIS SHOULD BE A
WET PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.   HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
GK

AVIATION...EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE NEAR
BYI AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH
SUNSET.  EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH MONDAY OTHER THAN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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