Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 170836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES THE
COAST. IF YOU LOOK AT SATELLITE...ONE WOULD THINK THIS STORM MIGHT
BRING US SOME PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER. THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE
THOUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES TOWARD IDAHO. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW NEAR L.A. WHILE
THE NORTHERN BRANCH SKIRTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
MONTANA TOMORROW. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING NO
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH KICKS OFF A FEW SHOWERS
FROM COPPER BASIN TO NEAR MONIDA PASS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THAT
IN THE FORECAST...AND WE DECIDED TO LEAVE THAT IN FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AS WE WILL SEE STRONG
DOWNVALLEY/GAP WINDS IN SOME AREAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SWITCHING
TO A GENERAL WEST/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LATER SATURDAY. WE SHOULDN`T
SEE STRONG ENOUGH WINDS TO PRODUCE ANY IMPACTS INCLUDING BLOWING
DUST. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON LOCATION AND
WIND. WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...EXPECT 20S AND 30S. WHERE SEE
DOWNVALLEY/GAP WINDS...MIXING WILL HOLD UP LOWS INTO THE 30S AND
40S. KEYES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST BUT IS QUICKLY PUSH TO THE HIGH PLAINS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM CHUGS EASTWARD TO COAST BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM ALSO SPLITS...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SPLIT THE SAME WAY FOR TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH VERY LITTLE ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN IDAHO. THE
ECMWF IS WETTER ACROSS THE EASTER HIGHLANDS...BUT IS SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR IN A DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR IT WILL BE WINDY ESPECIALLY WHERE LESS
CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY OUT OF
SORTS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUNS NOW
HAVE US COMPLETELY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. WE DID DROP TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT NEED TO DROP THINGS COMPLETELY IF THIS
TREND REMAINS. AFTER THAT...IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE RIDGE. THE GFS
KEEPS THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH VS THE ECMWF...AS IN
OVER ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA VS IDAHO/WYOMING/UTAH. THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS
HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND THAT IS WHAT WE KEPT IN
FOR THIS MORNING. KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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