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000
FXUS65 KPIH 100411
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
911 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH OF THE REGION BLANKETED BY LOW STRATUS WITH
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER POISED TO COVER THE STRATUS FROM
WASHINGTON/OREGON. BEST MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG THE DIVIDE BUT AREA
WEBCAMS INDICATING VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY ALONG EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY WHERE LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING. COLD TEMPS
AT SURFACE SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS SO FELT WARRANTED
ADDING A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF AS WELL. THAT SAID...SNOW IS MAINLY
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN IN ABSENSE OF STRONG DYNAMICS SO
ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 123 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TRENDS IN THE WV/IR
IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA STARTING TO
BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. IDAHO REMAINS UNDER A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER SNAKE AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS MAY SEE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE MOIST FLOW DUE MAINLY TO
UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE TOWARDS
THE PAC NW. WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. STILL KEEPING TEMPS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AS LONG AS WE
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.  HINSBERGER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL START
BEGIN TO ADJUST A LITTLE ON FRIDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIPPING BACK AND
FORTH NOW ON WHETHER A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS BY ON FRIDAY.  WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS YES FOR FRIDAY PASSAGE.  IMPACTS MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW BRIEFLY AS THE SYSTEM SWING BY.  NICE THING IS WITH FLOW COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW 30S.  MODELS STILL STRUGGLING AFTER THAT BUT KEEP A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW...SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK STORM
SYSTEMS TO SWING BUY...THUS YOU`LL SEE THAT REFLECTED IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IDAHO MONTANA BORDER REGION.  TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.   PRESTON

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DECK OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER SNAKE VALLEY.  VFR EXPECTED MOST AREAS
TOMORROW.  PRESTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$