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000
FXUS65 KPIH 142010
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through next Saturday. A trough of low
pressure is currently racing east through Wyoming and away from
our area. A few pockets of breezy conditions remain across the
Snake Plain but winds should gradually diminish after Sunset
except for those favored drainage valleys. A few pockets of low
clouds and fog may form overnight, particularly across those
areas that received fresh Snow. Otherwise, a ridge of High
Pressure will gradually build across the west through early week,
bringing a gradual warming trend to SE Idaho. An impulse and
associated Atmospheric River event will penetrate across the PacNW
by Wednesday, however current forecast projections indicate the
bulk of this moisture will remain north of our area into Montana.
The ridge briefly builds back into our area for Thursday. Have
nudged high temperatures upwards Tue-Thu, when highs may push into
the low 70s across southern portions of the Snake Plain.
Occasionally breezy conditions will develop by Wednesday.

A trough is expected to sweep across SE Idaho on Friday, bringing
a round of valley Rain, mountain Snow and windy conditions. As the
trough departs Friday night into Saturday, some Snow down to
valley floors will be possible. Confidence is Medium to High on
the evolution of these features as models are currently in very
good agreement through the end of the week. AD/VP

&&

.AVIATION...Exiting storm system this afternoon has left some
lingering pockets of mvfr cloud ceilings from KPIH and KIDA
eastward into Wyoming. The lower clouds will diminish by sunset.
Gust winds in the Snake River plain this afternoon will also
become light and variable after sunset. VFR conditions expected
for the next several days as a large high pressure ridge to build
into the western US. VP


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure trough and attending precipitation
were working east across the region early this morning and are
expected to exit east into Wyoming by noon today as a drier NW flow
overspreads the region. Numerical models continue to show a ridge of
high pressure gradually expanding north across the region Sunday and
Monday for dry and warmer conditions. For now, the models show a
disturbance shifting east through Canada Tuesday night and Wednesday
resulting in widespread rain and higher mountain snow across the
Idaho Panhandle while remaining just north of the Salmon Breaks.
Otherwise, the previously advertised incoming low for Thursday has
slowed and is now expected to advance inland late Thursday night
into Friday. Out ahead of this system, temperatures are expected to
run well above normal for SE Idaho Thursday before the onset of
precipitation and colder temperatures with the incoming low Friday.
Huston


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$