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000
FXUS65 KPIH 152000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDING WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A SHALLOW RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NW COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY DECENT AMOUNT OF PAC
MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES PROVIDING AT
LEAST A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE NEXT PAC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE NW COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST DRIER. BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PAC TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND WITH ATTENDING
PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY NOON. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND DRIER WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM ON THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE THUS SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
PAINTING A FLATTER/WEAKER LOOKING TROUGH PASSAGE WHEREAS THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED/SHARP TROUGH. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY IF THE
NAM SCENARIO PANS OUT. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT AN EXITING SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL DOES BRING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA MAINLY
ACROSS OUR VERY SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS MOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EAST BRINGING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS A MOIST SYSTEM
MAINLY THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHILE THE GFS MODEL MOVES THIS
SYSTEM MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA KEEPING US RELATIVELY DRY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME BLOWING DUST IS
EXPECTED PARTICULARLY FOR KPIH AND KIDA.  LOOK FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WYATT
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-020>022.
&&

$$