Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 011449
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
849 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...

RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBOIS TO POCATELLO TO
MALAD. STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...STILL
LOOKS RATHER STORMY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED
HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING TO BRING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THERE IS
THE RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE TODAY. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE
A QUIETER DAY WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT AS INTENSE AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WHICH IS CLOSER TO
NORMAL. EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO PUSH
MOISTURE INTO IDAHO.
GK

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. GFS HAS LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EUROPEAN HAVING SIMILAR MOVEMENT ON THE LOW. THIS
PATTERN KEEPS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING EVERY
DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS IN THIS PATTERN.
GK

AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NNE INTO WRN OREGON
EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW ACROSS
SE IDAHO. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION
OVER SW IDAHO THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING INTO THE CNTRL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON AND THE REMAINDER OF SE IDAHO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE
ATTENDING DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING LOW.
WIDESPREAD VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH
TEMPORARY VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. HUSTON


FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SW FLOW ACROSS SE IDAHO. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL FORCING...SOME OF THOSE WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THE EJECTING LOW SHEARS EAST INTO WRN
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND SRN CANADA TUESDAY LEAVING A BROAD FLAT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SECONDARY PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NW STATES
WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT IS AT THIS TIME...THAT THE
LOW APPEARS TO INGEST A SHOT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE ANDRES WHICH IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE SUB-
TROPICS. THIS MOISTURE ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
IDAHO SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE LOW LIFTING NE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HUSTON


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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