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000
FXUS65 KPIH 291615
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
10315 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
CAPTURE THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK WAVE. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022<025 FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
&&

$$