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000
FXUS65 KPIH 170907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER TROF CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN
OREGON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM CHALLIS AND STANLEY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD MALTA AT 3 AM. HAVE HIGH POPS TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS
THE TROF PUSHES EAST SATURDAY EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE NORTH
OF A IDAHO FALLS TO SUN VALLEY LINE BUT KEPT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWEST SUNDAY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LOW.
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SATURDAY AS WELL
WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND COULD SEE 15 TO 20
MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST MONDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN BUT BOTH KEEP IT MAINLY
WEST OF IDAHO AS WELL AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. COULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG TERM AS STRENGTH OF LOW WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT THAT FAR OUT
AND COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. FOR NOW GOING WITH
WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION AS CIRCULATION STAYS WELL WEST INTO NEXT
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND
EVE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO
IFR THIS MORNING IN RAIN. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NW. A DEEP
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY WED...BRINGING RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$