Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS65 KPIH 210222
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
722 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
REDUCE CLOUD COVER TEMPORARILY AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS
THE NEXT PAC DISTURBANCE DIGS SSE THROUGH CALIFORNIA. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET A BIT
BUT STILL THINK AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT IN EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN AS WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION. STILL A QUICK SYSTEM AS WELL WITH 18Z NAM NOW ENDING
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AS WELL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG
WYOMING BORDER. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT TRENDED IN GRIDS TO CUT
BACK IN SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT 8 TO 12 INCHES IN AMOUNTS
IN HIGH ELEVATIONS IN WATCH WORDING WITH GUSTY WINDS STILL
EXPECTED DURING EVENT FROM SOUTH BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
WESTERLY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING. GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING SATURDAY`S EVENT. A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OFF ON TIMING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PROLONGED PERIODS OF
SNOW AND WIND. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY AND
ONLY SEE RAIN OR SNOW WHEN ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS CROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY AGAIN. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A SLOW BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OVER IDAHO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF STILLS SHOWS A
STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BRINGING A RETURN OF
MUCH COLDER AND WET WEATHER. THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
BUT SOME SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EC...WHILE MOST
FAVOR A FLATTER RIDGE THAT STAYS TO THE WEST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
KEPT NORTHWEST FLOW AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.  WE
FOLLOWED SUIT AND STAYED THE COURSE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE MAY
BE DEALING AT THE VERY LEAST WITH SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR MANY OF OUR
MOUNTAIN PASSES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. DMH/KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN IDAHO
THROUGH TOMORROW. TODAY`S WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT THE ISSUE OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...IT MAY
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS. WE HAVE VCSH AT ALL SITE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME LOW CLOUDS SLOWING WORKING THEIR
WAY INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY UP THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR UPSTREAM IN SEVERAL SPOTS...SO WE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE AT LEAST MVFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT. WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OVERNIGHT COMING FROM THE
STRATUS DECK. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING IDZ019-022-023-025-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IDZ018-031.
&&

$$









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.