Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 271643
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1043 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND ISLAND PARK...DRIGGS AND ROBERTS AREA. THERE
IS LITTLE FORCING IN THAT AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IT WILL
BRING INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREAS ARE THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE BEST...AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE COOL TO COLD TEMPERATURES
THAT CONTINUE. THE PRECIPITATION SUBSIDES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST...STRONGER THAN THE
TROUGH...MAKES A NEARBY PASS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS NEAR TERM
PERIOD. WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY...BUT IT IS
VERY LIGHT UNTIL THE LOW APPROACHES FRI. MESSICK

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PARADE OF UPPER
CLOSED LOWS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY...DIMINISHING SAT EVE. BY SUN...THE UPPER LOW SAGS
TO THE LOWER GREAT BASIN...REDUCING THE IMPACT ON THE FCST AREA.
MAINLY ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE NEAR THE WY BORDER.
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES NORTHWARD ON MON...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. ONLY
EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ON MON...DIMINISHING MON EVE. UPPER
RIDGINIG BUILDS UP ON TUE...BUT REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW ARE STILL
PRESENT. SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS MAINLY TUE AFTN. AN
ISOLD TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO WARMER TEMPS. BY WED...THE RIDGE
FINALLY DOMINATES...WITH WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HEDGES

AVIATION...ISOLD SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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