Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 062119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
219 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Shortwave driving
through Idaho this afternoon per satellite/radar imagery. Light
snows extending mainly across portions of central mountains and
southern highlands. Snows also impacting Magic Valley and Lower
Snake Plain with mainly light accumulations. Circulation drops
through the region overnight with only light upslope snows
lingering into early morning. Cold temperatures still in place and
expect more of the region to see sub-zero lows overnight compared
to last night. Generally drier conditions in place under weak
ridge until Thursday, and still cold. Guidance continues to trend
temperatures downward especially for lows through Thursday
morning. Models have continued to back off on timing of onset of
next round of precipitation until late Thursday. Even then, quite
a bit of uncertainty on progression of moisture into the area. GFS
significantly wetter than NAM, but blend still produces 4-6 inches
accumulation over higher elevations and 1-3 valleys. Given recent
model trends and QPF discrepancies, have opted to hold off on
headlines for now and introduce lead-in to weekend storm series
with a general statement. DMH

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday. Friday through Saturday
evening look pretty wet across eastern Idaho.  HOWEVER, the models
are struggling on targeting on specific periods where more moisture
falls vs the next. This is typical in this type of pattern.
Initially, we should all snow but by Friday afternoon and night that
changes. A combination of warmer air moving in and/or downslope
winds we will see snow either falling without accumulation or a
complete change to rain. That really limits snowfall at lowest
elevations, especially along the I-84/86 corridor and the valleys
across the south central highlands. We can also throw in the Idaho
side of the Cache Valley into the mix. The central and eastern
mountains look to see a lot of snow and wind, which means blowing
and drifting possible for higher passes and the backcountry. We
should see a lull in things Sunday with the next surge coming in for
Monday, potentially lasting into Tuesday.  Keyes


.AVIATION...Light snow continues to shift across the area this
afternoon.  We are seeing when and where snow is falling, periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions due to ceilings and visibility. Winds aren`t
strong but just enough that maybe some blowing snow across runway
surfaces is possible. It will likely until later tonight/early
Wednesday for things to completely clear at all sites except KSUN.
It appears there will be some upslope trying to keep snow going. VFR
weather is forecast tomorrow. There could be some fog but right now,
there isn`t enough confidence to include it at any TAF site.  Keyes



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