Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 150839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
239 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...A broad upper trough lingers over the West this
morning, but a push of drier air in the lower levels will keep
things mostly stable through the day. Some orographically induced
showers may develop over the Central Mountains near Mackay and
extend toward the Island Park area this afternoon and evening.
Through the rest of the week, we come under the influence of upper
ridging. This will result in dry and stable conditions with
temperatures warming as we head into the weekend. Ridging will
shift to the east on Saturday as an upper trough drops into the
coastal areas. GFS and ECMWF cutoff a circulation over California
by Sunday afternoon and evening. This is a favorable setup for
opening us up to some monsoonal moisture, a pattern that will last
through Tuesday. Plenty of uncertainty lingers this far out, but
thunderstorms will be a possibility as the 2017 total eclipse
gets underway.  Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Shortwave axis shifts east of the region today.
There is enough low level moisture to keep some concern of
fog/stratus early this morning but most likely scenario is a few
pockets of MVFR, typically KIDA. Most of these areas should lift
shortly after sunrise. Some moisture and instability expected to
remain today, so there is still a threat of isolated SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon and early evening, mainly along lee side of central
mountains, along the Divide, and south along the WY border. KDIJ
would be the most likely terminal to see convection, and kept all
other terminals dry. Otherwise expect VFR conditions at all
locations through tonight. DMH


.FIRE WEATHER...A few showers linger over the southeast corner of
the region this morning. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly
across the Caribou-Targhee, but precipitation will be light and the
rest of the region should remain dry. Expect dry conditions through
Friday as temperatures and humidites return to seasonable levels.
Afternoon winds are expected to be locally gusty each day, but
remaining well below critical thresholds. DMH



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