Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 231945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL SEE THE
LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUE TO SWING INLAND AND INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EVENTUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE SMALL HAIL.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS PICKING UP ESPECIALLY IN ITS WAKE. SPEEDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN
20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A
WIDE SPREAD IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME DATA SHOWING US
POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT WE WILL HIT THE THRESHOLD FOR A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...BUT ONLY LOW TO
MODERATE FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA UP AND DOWN
THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW HAVE ONE LAST
CRACK AT THINGS TO SEE HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. IT DEFINITELY WILL
BE COOLER TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWS 80S FOR THE
VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S FOR MANY OF US INITIALLY...FINALLY PUSHING CLOSER TO 90 IN
SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT SOME
COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN
GENERAL. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS LIKE STANLEY AND COPPER BASIN ACTUALLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. AS THE NEXT STORM DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PACIFIC...WE WILL BE BACK UNDER SOUTHWEST AND PULLING MONSOON
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY BUT
WE SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL MONDAY WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO
ARRIVE. FOR RIGHT NOW...WE WILL KEEP WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE VALLEYS NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS ESPECIALLY ON NIGHTS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE MORE
PREVALENT. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SE IDAHO OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS AT KPIH KIDA AND KBYI. KSUN
CAN EXPECT GUSTS TO 20 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
EP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE AREA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...IT
WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH SE ID. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE
FRONT TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY 6 AM. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND 25 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO RAPIDLY DRY OUT SO RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  THUS...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 410...422...425...AND 427 BETWEEN 9 AM
AND 9 PM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM AFTER SUNSET. ON FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY IDZ410-425.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY IDZ422-427.

&&

$$







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