Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 030905
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
305 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LITTLE BIT MOISTURE IS
POISED TO ROTATE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. IT MIGHT KICK OFF A
LONE SHOWER OR STORM BETWEEN MACKAY AND GILMORE SUMMIT...AND DOWN
SOUTH OF BURLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY FOR
EASTERN IDAHO. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY LATER WITH SOME SPOTS
HITTING 15MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE 4TH AS MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT MORE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN LOCALES. COVERAGE WILL STILL BE
ONLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LOOK OUT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH
THEM. WE ALSO CAN`T RULE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN INCLUDING
TOMORROW EVENING. SPEAKING OF WINDS...THE MODELS ARE UPPING THE
ANTE ON OVERALL BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30MPH
AT TIMES ARE FORECAST NOW. THIS MAY MEAN ISSUES FOR ANYONE
SHOOTING OFF FIREWORKS AS THE WINDS MAY LAST PAST SUNSET. AS THE
LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...THIS FLATTENS OUT THE PATTERN AS
DRAWS A DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT ON
SATURDAY...BE WE SHOULD SEE A COOLDOWN FOR SUNDAY BY 5-10 DEGREES.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE FORECAST LOOKS RATHER
STORMY NEXT WEEK. WE KEEP SEEING MOISTURE ROTATING INTO EASTERN
IDAHO HELPING TO FUEL DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MODELS DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING IN PLACE IN OUR GENERAL AREA. THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO
PLACEMENT AND TIMING AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING TROUBLE
HANDLING ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTHERN U.S. AND WHAT
TO DO WITH THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR NOW...WE
DIDN`T GO WITH ANYONE MODEL HERE AND KEEP WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS VS
ISOLATED AT NIGHT. WE SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN WE`VE BEEN BUT
STILL A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION....SOUTHEAST IDAHO REMAINING IN THE DRY AIR A LITTLE LONGER
TODAY. NO THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA.
TIMING OF GUSTY WINDS FROM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
FAVORING LATE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AT KPIH...THE OTHER TAF SITES LOOK A LITTLE
WEAKER. RS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHEAST IDAHO REMAINS IN DRY AIR TODAY. A FEW
STORM CELLS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF SALMON FALLS RESERVOIR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HAVE THEM STAYING
ON THE NEVADA SIDE OF THE SIDE LINE. SATURDAY...DRY AIR PERSISTS
ACROSS THE SALMON-CHALLIS LEAVING MOST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THE COLD FRONT UP IN MONTANA
TAKES A LITTLE TIME GETTING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO AND THUS THE WINDS IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND CROSS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS MAYBE PUSHING THE TIME LINE ON FIRE WORKS. WIND
SPEED CHANGES ARE SMALL...POCATELLO RIGHT IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
SUSTAINED BRACKET A FEW HOURS...BUT BURLEY AND IDAHO FALLS ARE
LEANING A COUPLE MPH SLOWER. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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