Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
FXUS65 KPIH 151639
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
939 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
Updated forecast to extend fog/stratus and snow flurries in the
Magic Valley and Bear Lake areas into the afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017/
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...It will be another quiet day
under high pressure for your Sunday. Little traces of fog this
morning though it is showing up here and there. Temperatures will
feel quite identical to yesterday with nice variation across our
area. The Arco Desert will still be in the single digits, as will
Challis; yet in the Caribou Highlands there are areas reaching
upper 30`s or higher. Eventually everyone will feel the warmth
better this week as more southwest flow settles over us again. The
precip-free trend will continue through Monday with only hints of
fog in the overnight/morning hours. Late Tuesday, a chance for
snow will exist in the Sawtooth Mountains with light snow
accumulations less than 1 inch through the overnight hours.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday night. Next Pac storm
system moves into the west coast on Wed. Snow is expected to move
into eastern ID by Wed aftn. Models have slowed down a little.
Most snow will be on the west facing slopes of the central mtns
due to the moist sw flow interacting with the terrain. Precip
becomes more widespread and heavier Wed night and Thu morning as
the main storm system moves inland. The central mtns may see 1 to
2 feet of snow by Thu eve. The rest of the mtns may see 6 to 10
inches...with the valleys receiving 2 to 4 inches. Still a few
days out...so much can change. Another system moves into the west
Fri and Sat...but most of the moisture and energy appears to be
heading more to the south of ID. Another weak system moves in
toward Mon morning. Hedges
AVIATION...An upper ridge moving into the Pac NW will result in VFR
conditions thru tonight. Some patchy low cigs are possible early
this morn in the Snake River Plain. Hedges
An Areal Flood Advisory will remain in effect for Cassia and southern
Minidoka county through the weekend. Floodwaters on roads has
frozen over and several county roads remain closed.
A Flood Warning continues at Antelope Creek in Darlington due to an ice
jam on this creek along with runoff from early-week rainfall and
snowmelt has resulted in some homes being flooded in Darlington.
The Flood Advisory for the Challis River Bridge south of Challis
will continue at the request of the BLM and local law enforcement.
Citizens are urged to avoid this area.
Additional rain or snowfall is not in the forecast in the near
term period. Precipitation is expected to return with any real
impact on Wednesday with possible amounts near one-half inch in
the areas where flooding has already occurred. This will be
another mix of precip with snow occurring first, then rain and
then back to snow. Therefore, concerns will be very similar to
what has already been experienced. Amounts of snowfall are far
less during this event than the previous one, at least in the
areas like Burley, Idahome, American Falls and Pocatello. For
Malta and other areas already impacted by the floods higher snow
accumulations closer to 7 to 10 inches are currently in the
upcoming forecast and will need to be closely monitored.
Additionally, snow amounts in the Sawtooth Mountains are looking
very similar to last week and are in the one foot plus range
Wednesday through Thursday.
Below freezing temperatures continue in the forecast into early
week leading to risk for ice jam flood concerns on rivers and
small streams across Southeast Idaho.