Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 160849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
249 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wed night. High pressure will
strengthen throughout this period. Expect nearly clear skies,
warming temperatures, with today already expected to be above
normal for this time of year to more than 10 deg F above normal by
Wed afternoon. Little influence of the pressure gradient on wind,
so it will be mainly terrain-influenced. Overnight lows will also
warm, though not as strongly.

.LONG TERM...Thu through Sun night. The high slowly breaks down
starting the day before, but it does not impact the forecast area
until Thu, with an increase in cloudiness. However, afternoon
temperatures continue to warm, some places 15 deg F warmer than
normal, with this the warmest day of the next seven. The strongest
trough this week moves through the forecast area Friday and Friday
night. Not appearing as strong or as wet today compared to
yesterday at this time, there is still plenty of moisture for the
central Idaho mountains, with most of it in the form of rain,
unilt Friday night, but by then it is mainly over. Wettest period
still seems to be Fri afternoon/evening. Wind should be too much
of a factor. Temperatures stay cool after this, with mainly zonal
flow bringing in weak impulses, with moderate to strong
differences in timing between the GFS and ECMWF. Should still be
below climatic normals on Sun.



.AVIATION...Dry westerly flow will build over the region
the next 48 hours. Widespread VFR conditions. RS


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry westerly flow pattern will prevail across most
of Southeastern Idaho today. There will be a disturbance crossing
northern Idaho with a slight chance of rain showers north of about
Shoup Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure gains
strength again on Thursday with rather warm southerly air bumping
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal, especially in the Middle
Snake River Valley. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in
the Snake plain and Southern Sawtooth Forest area. Exposed ridgetops
from the Utah border to North Fork  will see some gusts to around 25
mph. A low pressure disturbance will approach from the west on
Friday with scattered showers in the mountains and a slight chance
of showers in the Snake Plain. RS



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