Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290323
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
923 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN SHIELD OVER THE MAGIC VALLEY IS SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST SO ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO EXPIRE OVER THE BEAVER
CREEK BURN AREA. 3 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES IN
SOME AREAS. SATELLITE SHOWS A BRIEF DRY SECTOR MOVING OVER EASTERN
IDAHO AT 9 PM WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF STORM ENERGY IS MOVING NORTH
TOWARDS FROM UTAH. THIS ENERGY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE THE RAINFALL
WILL KEEP TO A MINIMUM UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS.  PRESTON




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO
EAST IDAHO FROM UTAH AND WYOMING. MODELS SHOW THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANYWHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL TIME...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION TO
THE CENTER OF THE BAND. ON MONDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EAST
IDAHO. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED NOTICEABLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WRAP AROUND RAIN. GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP THE WIDESPREAD WRAP
AROUND RAIN ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO ON MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY
CONVECTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST IDAHO ON MONDAY...MOST
NOTABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE SITUATION REMAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS
WITH 70S LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

AVIATION...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE.  MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. DSH

FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...AND
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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