Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 240934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
334 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wed night. A weak to moderate upper
level trough will swing through late today and tonight, bringing
showers, thunderstorms, and a wind shift. The low lingers several
days over western Montana. This keeps the showers and
thunderstorms continuing with all the low level convergence and
unstable conditions. The wind is a little bit stronger Wed
afternoon, but it is still expected to day below Lake Wind
Advisory threshold. The southerly wind keeps the temperatures
warming for today, then leveling off for Wed. The overnight cloud
cover will keep temperatures mild, but the air at high elevation
is cold enough for some occasional snow above 7500 feet. Do not
believe that the snow will stay, especially below 8500 feet

.LONG TERM...Thu through Mon night. There is a brief let-up, but
not a ceasing, to the threat of precipitation. The trough of the
near term moves out, but another low slides into place, just to
the west of the forecast area, not the north. This allows warming
tempertures despite the moisture and instability. The shower
activity does not appear as widespread, with Sat or Sun being the
best day for more precipitation during this time. This surge of
moisture during the weekend will cool temperatures briefly and
reduce the threat of thunderstorms, but by Mon a warming trend
returns with continued southerly airflow and a decrease in
cloudiness/increase in afternoon/evening instability. The weekend
storm could also bring some windy conditions. Messick


.AVIATION...A persistent upper trof over the Pac NW will result in
sct aftn showers/tstms over the mtns...with isold activity over the
Snake River Plain/eastern Magic Valley. VFR conditions expected to
prevail thru tonight. Hedges


.FIRE WEATHER...Not much change expected over the next several days
as a persistent upper trough over the Pac NW will continue the
pattern of scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the mountains...with isolated activity in the valleys.
Temperatures will remain cool and afternoon humidity relatively
high. This trend is expected to continue through the weekend. On the
positive side... this reduces the fire risk. Hedges

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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