Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 201946
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH AND ADVANCING INTO IDAHO. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS AND
ROGERSON. THIS LINE SHOULD ADVANCE TO ABOUT A SUN VALLEY TO IDAHO
FALLS LINE BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LESS THAN SEVERE LEVELS.

LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING
TOWARDS WYOMING ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN. MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD RAIN AGAIN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN....EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
TO THE CURRENT LONGWAVE PATTERN. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IN UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. LIKE YESTERDAYS FORECAST...THE
LAST 24 HOURS SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...SO ONCE AGAIN IT HAS
BEEN PUT OFF. SO POPS ARE LOWER FOR THE LAST DAY...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE
60S AT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ELEVATIONS ALSO CONTINUES...AGAIN
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WHEN SKIES MAY CLEAR AT LEAST A LITTLE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WIND
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO BREEZY IN MAGNITUDE. MESSICK

$$

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THREATEN EACH
AIRDROME FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CIG OR VSBY IMPACT FROM ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS A REMOTE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS...SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR CIGS
HAVE NOT BEEN CAUGHT SO WELL. WHAT MARGINAL VFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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