Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
FXUS65 KPIH 251950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday night through Friday. High pressure ridge
expected to gain amplitude tonight with shower activity shifting
almost north of the forecast area by Wednesday morning. In the
meantime, we still have a couple of minor ripples in this flow to
set off a few showers. The first is crossing through the Central
Mountains this afternoon, with the southern end of the disturbance
brushing the South Central/Caribou Highlands. The second is still
back towards California and by the time it gets here there may not
be much left of it. Models have this wave generating a few showers
near Island Park early Wednesday. Otherwise, Wednesday through
sunset Thursday looks mostly nice with temperatures warming 6 to 8
degrees over today. Southerly winds in the South Central Highlands
will still be on the breezy side Wednesday and a little stronger,
maybe windy on Thursday. Late Thursday night and Friday the next
big disturbance will bring numerous rain showers. Snow levels will
still be elevated around 9000 feet; the higher peaks of the
Central Mountains may see 2 to 4 inches accumulation. RS

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday night. Timing of departing
wave Friday night agreed upon between GFS/ECMWF with fair run-to-run
consistency. However, GFS is more aggressive in bringing precip back
into the area Saturday night as ridge axis passes to the east. ECMWF
is much drier with the biggest punch associated with a trough
filling as it makes landfall over OR Sunday night, where the GFS
leads the ECMWF by about 12 hours with the upper trough. Models come
more out of phase by Monday morning lending little in the way of
confidence in the long-term forecast. Thus have made only small
changes to PoPs for early next week. Models are in better agreement
with snow levels, which we have adjusted downward starting Sunday
night. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Showers appear to be mainly impacting the Central
Mountains this morning. NAM is the drier of the models for this
morning and is a little more representative of current trends. KSUN
and KDIJ may be the only sites to see precip today, but still
keeping things VFR except for possible MVFR ceilings at KDIJ this
afternoon. Ridging should move in overnight and we should see drier
weather heading into the end of the period. Hinsberger


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.