Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 180318
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
918 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO COAST PER WV SAT IMAGERY
TONIGHT. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEADILY MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. BAND OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL PRIMED TO SLIDE INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS COULD STILL SEE SOME RAINFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST HRRR AND RUC/RAP RUNS PUSHING BAND OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION BUT TRUE FRONT LAGS
BEHIND SLIGHTLY. AIRMASS NOT REALLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DESPITE LIGHTNING OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AT THIS TIME WHERE BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LOCATED.
WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN ESPECIALLY LEANING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE NOW HITTING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AT 15Z WHICH APPEARS TO BE BEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND SHORTLY
BEHIND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE LATEST GFS UPDATE BEFORE NUDGING GRIDS FURTHER
TOWARD ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A PAC DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NE COASTAL WATERS WITH
ATTENDING MOISTURE LIFTING NE ACROSS WASHINGTON/OREGON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE PUSHING INLAND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INTO SE
IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WYOMING AND NRN UTAH WITH A RAPIDLY DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NUMERICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS AND A LOCAL STUDY SHOW A SUB-WIND ADVISORY EVENT
FOR FRIDAY WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THUS NO HEADLINES WERE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AND WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS FOR ANY REQUIRED UPDATES. A BROAD...RELATIVELY DRY WEST
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EACH AFTERNOON. HUSTON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT WARM
CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH A COOL DOWN BEGINNING TUESDAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
COOL AIR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GK

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME
10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AT IDA. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT IDA AND PIH. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BYI...PIH AND IDA ON FRIDAY. GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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