Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 210934
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
WITH A DRY SLOT STARTING TO APPROACH WESTERN IDAHO. EXPECT
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY. FRIDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
CONSISTENT IN DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS ARE AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRY SLOT ACROSS
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY TO
MODERATE WINDS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING 8 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY. WYATT

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY IN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MODERATE TO
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
MODELS START TRENDING DRIER IN NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND EVEN
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMING SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. WINDS WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXCEED
30KTS. KEYES/RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS
MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE ONLY A
TEMPORARY BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A NEW LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BE
MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN OREGON BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER GOOD DAY FOR WETTING RAINS. SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES RIGHT
OVER THIS AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME 10 TO 20 MPH WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN BUT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD BE NO LOWER
THAN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO
THIS AREA BY MONDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRYING CONDITIONS IS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT GIVES WAY TO MORE WESTERLIES BY WEEKS END. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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