Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 221047
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
347 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPIATION HAS MOVED
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BELOW
6000 FEET BRINGING RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. THIS MOIST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CONTINUED FOR 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOST
RIVER/PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6000
FEET. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TODAY STARTING FROM THE
SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
FOR WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAS BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND IS VALID FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TODAY. VERY
LITTLE VALLEY SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY BELOW 6000 FEET.

THIS EVENING SNOW LEVELS START TO DROP BACK TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
LATE SUNDAY A MOIST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND 1
TO 2 INCHES OF VALLEY SNOW. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
MED RANGE. DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS PRECIP CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PROGRESSIVELY PUSHING NORTH TOWARD THE DIVIDE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. GFS MAINTAINS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE DIVIDE WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SAGS FEATURE INTO THE REST OF EAST IDAHO AND WEAKENS IT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ECMWF HOLDING ON TO THE RIDGE INSTEAD...BUT
BOTH MODELS DEPICTING RIDGE IN PLACE FRI/SAT AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC
FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY...MORE OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. HELD ON TO WEAK POPS
THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRIED THE REGION OUT INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...SO NUDGED TEMPS
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST LEVELS WHILE STILL REMAINING COLDER THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ITS MARCH ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS
MORNING. SNOW ALREADY FALLING IN CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. CONSOLIDATED PRECIP SHIELD WORKING
INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN PER RADAR/SAT IMAGERY AND EXPECT TO ENCOMPASS
MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS.  WARMING STILL IN PLACE
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PARTICULARLY SOUTH HALF OF REGION SO EXPECT RAIN
AT KBYI/KPIH ALL DAY AND A MIX AT KIDA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. KSUN DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
AT THIS TIME. SFC GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH COLD FRONT SO WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS ROUGHLY 20KTS SUSTAINED AT
BOTH KPIH/KIDA. MAIN PRECIP BAND SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTN AND SHOULD SEE DROP OFF OF PRECIP IN SNAKE PLAIN
AND CENTRAL MTNS BY THIS TIME. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. WINDS
SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHIFTS WELL
EAST...AND ANOTHER WEAK BATCH OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. KSUN LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO MVFR WITH POTENTIAL
FOR IFR AGAIN AFTER 06Z. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-020>022.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








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