Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 251930
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
130 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SHARPLY NEAR THE
COAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME. THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF MINOR
DISTURBANCES TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. A FEW
SHOWERS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PENDLETON OREGON AND POSSIBLY
NEAR MYCALL. THEREFORE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN
CUSTER COUNTY AND NEAR MONIDA AND REYNOLDS PASS AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
BY FRIDAY. THE RECENT SNOW IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS NEAR SWAN
VALLEY DRIGGS WAYAN SHOULD SLOW THE WARM UP A LITTLE. COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO SATURDAY. WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY...15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY. THE GFS
MODEL HAS THIS DISTURBANCE IN A CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...THEREFORE EXPECT IT WILL PASS QUICKLY
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. RS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSING TROUGH
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE WAVE
RACES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EQUALLY PROGRESSIVE
GFS SOLUTION HOWEVER...SPINS OFF A TRAILING LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
WHICH TRACKS SLOWLY SE THROUGH NEVADA...PARTIALLY REMINISCENT OF
YESTERDAYS ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BUT WEAKER. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE
FAIRLY DRY LOOKING FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CONTINUING A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH
BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL MONDAY UNDER A
MODEST RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND PASSING TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
(PER THE ECMWF) OR AFTERNOON (PER THE GFS). GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMING ISSUES HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY...THE
MODELS DRAG A SECONDARY TROUGH INTO THE NW STATES WHICH IS A NOTABLE
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND SUPPORTIVE OF A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER CONFIRMING MODEL RUN BEFORE
BUMPING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL UPWARDS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH MONDAY THEN BEGIN TO COOL
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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