Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 201016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
316 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...Monday through Wednesday. Fairly strong push of
moisture will work into central and east Idaho today from the
northwest. Snow levels are starting out this morning at or near
valley floors. We expect to see snow levels slowly rise through
the day with snow levels climbing to around 6000 feet this
afternoon across the central Idaho mountains into the Magic
Valley. However, much of east Idaho will see snow levels only
climb to around 5000 feet by late this afternoon. As a result, we
are expecting minor snow accumulations on the valley floors. The
strongest push of moisture will be this afternoon and evening and
from Pocatello to Idaho Falls and Rexburg could see and inch or so
of snow today. We will see the snow levels climb through the
night to over 7000 feet by Tuesday morning. Heaviest snowfall
amounts will be from Stanley to Galena Summit where 3 to 7 inches
of snow remains possible. A winter weather advisory remains in
effect mainly for the Galena Summit pass where we expect slick
roads, especially this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, across
central and east Idaho, 2 to 5 inches is possible above 6000 feet.
However, impacts continue to look minor and isolated so we will
hold off on additional advisories at this time. Mountain passes
that could see the worst impacts would be Pine Creek pass,
Georgetown Summit, and Emigration Pass where 3 to 5 inches is
possible. Will probably issue a special weather statement to
highlight those areas.

Moist flow from the northwest to the southeast will continue for
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, we expect snow levels to rise above
8000 feet and should no longer create significant impacts. Not to
mention, precipitation gets much lighter and is mainly affecting
western facing slopes of the central Idaho mountains and Tetons.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday. Models are showing
high pressure ridging breaking down Thanksgiving day as a moist
trough moves through briefly flattening the ridge. This will allow
for light to moderate snow showers mainly over the Western Central
mountains and Upper Snake Highlands late Thanksgiving day. These
showers then spread to lower elevations bringing light valley rain
and light to moderate mountain snow early Friday. The high pressure
ridge rebounds Friday night into Saturday bringing mostly dry
conditions for the weekend. Models are showing more moisture in
Northwest flow Monday into Tuesday but vary on timing and intensity.
Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal Thursday.
Temperatures will moderate some Friday, only 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, before rising back to 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the
weekend. Wyatt


.AVIATION...Conditions will deteriorate early to mid morning from west
to east as a moist trough moves in Northwest flow. Expect IFR/MVFR
conditions for KSUN this morning and for KDIJ by early afternoon.
The rest of the sites should remain VFR expect during brief periods
of showers, which will likely be a rain/snow mix. Models are
suggesting the Eastern Magic valley and Snake River plain will have
low stratus through the afternoon into tomorrow morning. However,
CIGS should remain VFR outside of any showers on station. Showers
should favor KSUN and KDIJ which will be upslope driven. Wyatt


Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Tuesday for IDZ031.


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