Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281450
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
850 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...Just a quick update to tweak the forecast today. It
looks like less showers across the southeast corner and along the
Wyoming border for the rest of today. We did beef up clouds
between Pocatello and Burley for a few hours as some low level
moisture is caught in upslope flow. We also add some fog to the
Teton Valley as fog is stubborn to move out of the area.  Keyes

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Upper ridge beginning to nudge
into WA/OR this morning as split upper trough continues eastward,
and becomes less influential of weather. Ridging should promote a
drying trend through Wednesday while highs today peek into the
50s across the Snake Plain. A strong weather system is poised to
reach Idaho Late Wednesday night into Thursday with precip
beginning over the Central Mountains as early as Wednesday
afternoon. Models are showing a fair amount of precip with this
system as this once again is expected to result from a split flow
pattern aloft. The split should develop Thursday afternoon across
WA/OR as the low sinks into the Great Basin by Thursday night.
Snow accumulation in the Central Mountains would range from 4 to 8
inches Wednesday night and Thursday. Snow levels will begin to
drop Friday morning with some light snowfall, 1-2 inches, on the
benches. Winds associated with this system will likely begin
impacting East Idaho by Friday morning with 25 to 30 mph winds
expected out of the northeast. Hinsberger

LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday. Low pressure system
will move away from the area Friday night. This will produce dry
conditions into at least Saturday. The GFS continues to insist
upon dry weather for Sunday and doesn`t bring the next system into
the region until Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, the European
continues to bring the next system in on Sunday with a bit of a
break for Monday before another weak system arrives for Tuesday.
So, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty Sunday and beyond.
Valle

AVIATION...Some patchy low stratus is possible this morning.
Otherwise, expect vfr conditions. Valle

HYDROLOGY...Snowmelt and QPF-driven runoff will keep the threat
of flooding alive through the period. This is reflected well in
our current suite of watches/warnings/advisories. The Portneuf
gage in Pocatello is expected to continue in minor flooding for
the coming week at least. The Bear River at the WY border
continues to be in minor flooding with some indications it may
retreat to within its banks today. Hinsberger

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon MDT today for IDZ017>019-022>025-031-032.

&&

$$


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