Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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116
FXUS65 KPIH 241945
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
145 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. Shortwave feature dropping
south out of Montana this evening along with associated weak cold
front. Models have been consistent in firing isolated convection
north half of forecast area and have left precip chances intact.
Outflow boundaries concern for active fires across region. Surface
gradient strengthens for enhanced northerly winds this evening especially
across northern zones. Trough remains across region Thursday with
continued threat for isolated thunderstorms. Gradient stays
northwest until Friday afternoon when it shifts back to the
southwest in response to trough axis beginning to migrate east.
NAM faster than GFS in moving axis past the forecast area and thus
keeps isolated convection going across higher elevation areas
mainly east. Have split the difference between the two models with
precip chances kept near climo. DMH

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday. Saturday a transition
day for East Idaho as flow turns zonal across the region. Deeper
feature low taking shape off BC Canada coast Sunday through Monday
so flow aloft takes more southerly component. Temps warm early in
the week as ridge rebounds across the central Rockies. Could see
moisture associated with deepening trough over coastal states
shift into the region by Wednesday but confidence low so kept
forecast mainly dry. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...A shortwave moving through in Northwest flow will bring
a chance of thunderstorms and slightly increased northwesterly winds
late this afternoon into the early evening particularly for KIDA and
to a lesser extent KSUN. Thunderstorm Northerly outflows of 30 to 40
mph are possible particularly for KIDA. Also...expect slightly
reduced visibilty from smoke particularly for KIDA. Wyatt


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A shortwave moving through in Northwest flow will
bring isolated thunderstorms from a line near Sun Valley to Driggs
this afternoon into the evening. Rainfall amounts will be from a
Trace to 0.03. Look for breezy Northerly winds across mainly our
Northern areas with gusts near 20 to 25 mph. Thunderstorm outflows
of 30 to 40 mph in and around thunderstorms are possible as well
late this afternoon into the evening. Look for thunderstorms to
repeat Thursday afternoon in similar areas but will be slightly less
in coverage and mainly in the mountains. High pressure builds in
late Friday and Saturday bringing widespread dry conditions with
warming temperatures. Expect breezy Southwest flow by Sunday and
Monday bringing much drier and warmer conditions across the area.
Wyatt


&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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