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000
FXUS65 KPIH 251958
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A DRY WSW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FLAT UPPER HIGH
OVER NEW MEXICO/NRN TEXAS. THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE HIGH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING
INTO SRN IDAHO AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL PUSH WILL
CONSIST OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHOUT ANY REAL DYNAMICAL
FORCING EVIDENT IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SRN IDAHO. BOTH MODELS APPEAR TO DEPICT A SUB-TROPICAL VORTEX
LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN IDAHO TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY PASSING EAST
INTO WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUMP ABOVE
AN INCH WITH THE ONSET OF THIS WAVE SETTING THE TABLE FOR POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE
MONSOON FLOW GOING THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE DETAILS CONCERNING
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ARE SOMEWHAT
MUDDLED. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. KSUN WILL SEE THE USUAL WIND SHIFTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME CHANGES.  KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL KEEP GETTING LIGHTER EACH DAY AND MORE TERRAIN-DRIVEN IN SOME
CASES. HAINES INDICES OF 5 WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY THE TIME WE GET TO
SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARD IDAHO...MONSOON MOISTURE
RETURNS. WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONE
427 SOUTH OF BURLEY AND WEST FROM THERE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE STORMY AT TIMES WITH AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES EACH DAY TO PINPOINT WHERE WE MIGHT SEE HIGHER STORM
COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT STORMS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BETTER RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MANY STORMS LIKELY SLOWER
MOVING. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$