


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
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908 FXUS65 KPIH 121948 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures Continue To Warm Into the 90s - Isolated Dry Storms Sunday and Monday Up North - Flirting With Critical Fire Weather Conditions Sunday through Tuesday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Dry pattern continues under the influence of high pressure into early Sunday. A weak feature is expected to shift across the region Sunday afternoon. High-res models still picking up on a threat for isolated mainly dry thunderstorms across portions of the Central Mountains toward the Divide Sunday afternoon and evening. Model blends continue to wash this feature out, so maintained forecast from overnight shift. QPF still looks dry so main threat will remain gusty outflows. Breezy winds also still expected across the Eastern Magic Valley Sunday afternoon, which may have some potential Fire Weather concerns. Otherwise, temperatures continue to warm into Sunday, with daytime highs into the lower to mid 90s for almost all lower elevation areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Another shortwave approaches the region Monday. Temperatures remain in the lower to mid 90s, but winds begin to creep up slightly in response to the shortwave, once again leading to potential Fire Weather concerns. Once again we see the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms from the Central Mountains north to along the Divide. Stronger shortwave feature drops through Montana on Tuesday, for increased thunderstorm threats across East Idaho, mainly the northeast half of the forecast area. QPF amounts remain questionable, especially with afternoon humidities remaining quite low, but may see a few wetter storms getting into the mix. Temperatures remain elevated, though the northeast half may see some cooling with increased cloud cover from the afternoon build ups. Some lingering showers/storms will be possible Wednesday as system departs. Temperatures cool slightly, but not significantly, and the cooling is short-lived as a shallow ridge of high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week across the Intermountain West. The ensemble means favor a shallow trough off the coast, in line with both GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs. East Idaho returns to dry high pressure, with temperatures warming back into the 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure continues to intensify over southern Idaho. Expect SKC-FEW cloud cover in the 5000ft AGL to 9000ft AGL range. Unlimited VSBY. Wind will increase this afternoon, but only eastern Magic Valley appears to get gusty, so only KBYI will be appended with gusts. Sustained wind of 15KT for the afternoon at KIDA and KPIH. Wind direction dominated by slope-valley wind effect. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Gradual warming continues through Mon and drying through Sun, before an upper level low sinks southward into Montana, then turns eastward and becomes an open wave by Mon/Tue. This low will trigger a risk of thunderstorms over the ID-MT border region for Sun and Mon afternoons/evenings. By Tue, the thunderstorm coverage spreads southward, including nearly all of the Salmon-Challis NF, a solid portion of the Idaho Falls District, and a solid portions of the Caribou-Targhee NF. Highest probability is in the north. Storms should be mainly dry with precipitable water estimates staying below 0.75 of an inch. The increasing risk of thunderstorms indicates the overall gradual increasing instability over the three day period. Mixing heights increase strongly from Sun to Mon. Wind does not significantly increase until Mon for the Twin Falls District, then the Salmon- Challis NF and Idaho Falls District can be added to that breezy to windy conditions on Tue. The approach of the low appears right now to increase humidity enough to limit areas of humidity drying to below 15 percent, so this will have to be monitored for potential critical fire weather conditions. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMH LONG TERM...DMH AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick