Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 010814
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...LABOR DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TAIL END OF THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CLIP AREAS NEAR ISLAND PARK THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A COOL LABOR DAY
WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT`LL BE LESS
THAN THE PAST COUPLE. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A
COOL...AND FOR SOME QUITE CHILLY...MONDAY NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR MOST OF US. HIGHER VALLEYS LIKE STANLEY AND COPPER BASIN WILL
DROP TO THE MID 20S. A QUICK REBOUND TOMORROW THOUGH AS HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO TYPICAL TEMPERATURES OF 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER SYSTEM
SETS UP SHOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN STATES FOR
MIDWEEK. AS THE FIRST AND MAIN PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM SWINGS ALONG
THE BORDER WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO MAY
FIRE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER. OTHERWISE...WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ANOTHER COOL...BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING A BIT AND WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LINGERING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST. THE GFS IS A LOT WEAKER WITH THE NEXT WAVE TO
SWING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY VS THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS ALSO
ALREADY CLOSING OFF THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE PATTERN...AND
ALREADY PUTTING IDAHO UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. IF YOU LOOK AT BOTH
MODELS...THEY ARE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS. THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT
AROUND BEAR LAKE. IN KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF BLENDING THE TWO
FORECASTS...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER UNTIL THE WEEKEND BUT SLOWLY WARM
AFTER THAT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PRIOR FORECAST SHOWED.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND RELATIVELY
CLEAR. VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NO PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE PATTERN CHANGES ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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