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000
FXUS65 KPIH 121933
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
133 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS. RIDGE
FLATTENS SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG BC CANADA
COAST SAGS INTO MONTANA. COULD SEE A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
THE DIVIDE OTHERWISE LITTLE THREAT POSED AT THIS TIME FROM THIS
FEATURE. STRONGER SHORTWAVE STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
ACROSS THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL COULD BE AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH MONTANA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEHIND. GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN THE
NAM...DROPPING CENTER OF LOW INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. NAM PUTS CENTER OF SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA. QPF/MOISTURE
FIELDS SIMILAR WITH BOTH MODELS. TOOK A BLEND OF POP/QPF WITH A
NUDGE TOWARDS FASTER/WETTER GFS. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FAST ENOUGH
WITH MILD TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS SUCH THAT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. DMH

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. INSTEAD OF GETTING SOME
CLARITY AND A TREND TOWARDS SIMILARITY IN PRODUCT SUITE
SOLUTIONS...WE HAVE THE OPPOSITE TODAY. THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
THE THREAT OF POPS LOWER BUT MORE SPREAD OUT THAN YESTERDAYS
THINKING. THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE FRI NIGHT TROUGH EXITING WITH A RIDGE
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS NOT
GETTING RESOLUTION. THE 12/12Z ECMWF HAS NOW HELD ONTO A SHORTWAVE
OF MODERATE TO STRONG INTENSITY BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN MON-MON
NIGHT. THE GFS HAS GIVEN UP ON ITS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NOW BRINGS
IN A SHORTWAVE...BUT NOT UNTIL TUE NIGHT-WED. THUS HAVE SPREAD THE
WEALTH OF POPS OVER THIS PERIOD RATHER THAN CHOOSE ONE. THIS MAKES
TEMPERATURES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS WELL AS IT DEPENDS SO MUCH ON
CLOUD COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. ALSO...NO NEW ECMWF
MOS OUTPUT LAST NIGHT. THE ONLY CERTAIN THING IS THAT SOME MODERATE
TO STRONG WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...WHENEVER IT ARRIVES. MESSICK


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. MESSICK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$