Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 170904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
304 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thu night. Strong upper level ridge
will keep the warming trend in lows and highs going through this
period. Wind should increase Thu and Thu night as a low makes its
way to the Gem State. Only the northwest corner of the forecast
area has a slight chance threat of precipitation. Clouds will
increase steadily on Thu as well.

.LONG TERM...Fri through Mon night. A fairly wet low is expected
to be moving through the forecast area on Fri/Fri night, and is
the day of strongest PoPs and moderate to strong wind. Snow will
not be possible until late Fri night as the precipitation wraps
up. Even then, it should stay above at least 6000 ft elevation.
After this main storm passes through, there is less agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF guidance on the timing and amount of
precipitation, with the GFS generally higher and wetter. Another
low does appear to move through sometime during the weekend, with
conditions drying out for Mon. Temperatures will be much closer to
normal for all locations. Messick


.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions will continue today and
Wednesday. passing disturbances across the Panhandle both today and
again on Wednesday will contribute to breezy winds over mountain
ridge tops, and particularly the TAF sites in the Snake plain on
Wednesday. RS


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance slides across the Panhandle today
with an isolated shower this afternoon and evening as far south as
Lost Trail Pass. Another disturbance will try on Wednesday but not
reach much further south than Kooskia. Temperatures will warm 4 to 5
degrees today and another 4 to 5 degrees on Wednesday. Winds become
a little breezy today, gusts of 15 to 25 expected over the ridge
tops of the Southern Sawtooth area and about 25 to 30 mph gusts over
the Lemhi Range and Bitterroot. Winds increase some more on
Wednesday with the Snake Plain gusting 25 to 30 mph and the Lemhi
Range seeing some gusts up to 40 mph. The storm track succeeds in
dropping far enough south to bring scattered showers across southern
idaho Thursday night and Friday. The west slopes of the Central
Mountains, including Stanley and Galena Summit area could see .10 to
.20 inch liquid equivalent of precipitation. Temperatures drop back
to the 40s in the mountains and 50s valleys Friday. Snow levels come
back down to around 6000 feet. Scattered showers will prevail
Saturday and Sunday, then a short period Monday and Tuesday will
find this area back under a dry high pressure ridge. RS


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