Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS65 KPIH 170945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
245 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOG/STRATUS CURRENTLY SET UP
OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS REXBURG
THIS MORNING. MODELS PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK DOWN THE
VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT
FLURRIES AS THE STRATUS DECK IS IN THE -12C TO -18C TEMPERATURE
RANGE...A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY MORNING. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE OTHERWISE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MODELS DO DIFFER WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE
TROUGH AS IT PASSES. THE NAM IS SUGGESTING MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. GFS/SREF SHOW A LITTLE MORE PRECIP OCCURRING IN
SOUTHEAST IDAHO BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE THUS NUDGED POPS UP A BIT
THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE TROUGH WILL END UP.
HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON
THE SYSTEMS...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LESS
SPECIFIC FCST. THE THU SYSTEM IS WEAK WITH BOTH MODELS. THE TROF
PASSES THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...WITH THE GFS BEING A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF. THE MORE VIGOROUS TROF
PASSES THRU ON SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FASTER THAN THE
GFS. END RESULT IS WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS THU AND
FRI...WITH ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. PRECIP AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.BOTH MODELS AGREE ON MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON
SATURDAY...BUT DIFFERING SPEEDS ON THE TROF MAKE TIMING DIFFICULT.
ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS WETTER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN AMOUNTS. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WEST BY MON...
AND AGAIN THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER WITH THE RIDGE. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON
MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN EARLY THIS MORN ARE
EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER PARTS OF THE REST OF THE VALLEY...BUT LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON...BUT DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. HEDGES
&&

.HYDROLOGY...AN ICE JAM IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ON THE HENRYS FORK
IN ST. ANTHONY. AREAS ADJACENT TO AND UPSTREAM OF THE JAM MAY
EXPERIENCE FLOODING. EXPECT INCREASED FLOWS DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE
JAM RELEASES. THE GAGE IN ST. ANTHONY INDICATES THE RIVER HAS
LEVELED OFF AT AROUND 7.8 FT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
A RESULT OF THE ICE JAM. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING IDZ019.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.