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000
FXUS65 KPIH 272114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
BY MODELS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...WE HAVE LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS..WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL BE
WATCHING THE BURLEY...MAGIC MOUNTAIN AND OAKLEY RESERVOIR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING FOR SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION BANDING DEVELOPING
IN THAT AREA AS A RESULT OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTH. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE IS MORE OF A DEFORMATION AREA OVER THIS
AREA BETWEEN THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH OVER CANADA.
PLUS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THROUGH BEAR LAKE AREA
BY THEN LEAVING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED TO
ADJUST AT LITTLE LOWER YET. NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
COULD BRING MORNING LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW NEAR ISLAND PARK. TIMING OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPING TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE AREA LATE IN THE DAY LOOKS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON WAVE DROPPING OUT OF BC AND INTO IDAHO MON NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT OUT
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TREND IN THE GFS IS PUSHING QPF FIELD
A BIT FURTHER EAST...FOCUSING MORE ON EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF SNOWFALL AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WED MORNING...BUT COASTAL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND BRING SOME QUICK
WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS BACKING OFF ON
DROPPING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW FRIDAY MORNING AND IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER KPIH AND KIDA ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RADAR SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF KIDA SO COULD SEE IFR CIG/VIS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH AND DRIER DOWN-VALLEY FLOW SETS UP. MODELS
INDICATING ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP OVER SW IDAHO AND MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO KBYI IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$