Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 201014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
314 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. With what`s left of
yesterday`s storm slow to move east, pockets of light snow will
persist across the southeast corner today north to Palisades
Reservoir with light accumulations. We are still dealing with
what`s left of the convergence band from Driggs back toward
Pocatello. It looked like it was done, BUT the southern end
redeveloped near Blackfoot in the past couple of hours and is
dropping south. Even if it gets to around Pocatello, anything out
of it will be light (and maybe nothing more than a few flurries).
Otherwise, a few showers are possible across the peaks elsewhere
with drier conditions moving in briefly. The models are indicating
pockets of stratus tonight and Sunday morning across the Snake
Plain and have included that especially from Burley through
Blackfoot. It`s possible that under calm conditions we could see
it being more widespread than that. It`s something to keep an eye
on and adjust later. The potential of fog is even less at the
moment, but if we get enough could certainly happen
and be monitored as well this afternoon and evening.

The next storm arrives Sunday evening and persists into Monday.
This one doesn`t look too impressive at the moment as we are on
the tail end of it, as it moves along the US/Canada border. We
should see mostly snow Sunday night, with any location getting
into the mid 30s to near 40 at least going a rain/snow mix
briefly Monday afternoon. The latest and greatest forecast shows
1-3" (including the mountains) Sunday night and Monday. There will
be some gusty winds, BUT impacts/risk associated with any
blowing/drifting doesn`t look high enough to be an issue. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday. Extended period remains
dominated with amplified Pacific trough shifting inland. Monday
night through Tuesday night characterized by building ridge,
although a few showers remain possible over higher elevations
behind departing Monday system. Otherwise expect temperatures to
warm slightly into Wednesday. Onset of next batch of precipitation
could arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon in western and
central portions of the state, leaving the Snake Plain and eastern
highlands relatively dry. Since models agree on trough deepening
as it shifts toward coast, this looks to delay spread of
precipitation east across the remainder of the region until
Thursday. Thus best chance for most of the region to see moisture
looks to be Thursday through Thursday night. Temps could be warm
enough during the daytime Thursday for a mixed bag of precip, but
otherwise snow is expected. Drying trend in place Friday, with
Saturday characterized by cool generally dry ridge across the
region. DMH


.AVIATION...Trough axis remains overhead today so expect generally
mid cloud to continue streaming over the region. Observations and
area web cams show some stratus underneath the moisture stream, and
would expect that to continue into early morning with occasional
MVFR ceilings. Would not be surprised to see a few flurries out of
it, especially with potential remnants of convergent band from last
evening lingering in eastern highlands, but widespread persistent
snowfall isn`t expected. Thus expect conditions to be VFR at all
sites for today. As the mid deck clears out of the region later
today, redevelopment of stratus/fog will be possible, and will trend
terminals in that direction for after 06Z tonight. DMH



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