Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 270856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
256 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Fairly mild weather
conditions expected this weekend through Monday as a weak high
pressure region lies over our area. Temperatures will steadily be
rising today into the mid to upper 80s across the Snake Plain and
nearing 90 Sunday. Primary concern today will be anticipated wind
speeds and their gusts. Southwest to westerly winds at 15 to 22 mph
with higher gusts are expected starting early this afternoon from
I-84/86 northwards. Winds will subside near sunset.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday...The beginning
influences of a broad trough positioned to our west are forecast
by Tuesday evening. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
are forecast for the Central Mountains along with increasing winds
of 15 to 20 mph across the county warning area out of the south to
southwest. Continued showers and storms forecast through the night
and into Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. GFS is definitely the
most boisterous in regards to QPF amounts, almost twice as much
compared to the ECMWF solution most of the time. At least both
models agreed, mostly, on where to place precip during this time
period. Cold front still looks to pass through sometime later in
the week but timing that out is still a bit uncertain. Over next
weekend, models are showing a rather deep, moist trough across the
western US, which would provide us the best chance for
moisture/precip in a while. NP/RS


.AVIATION...Breezy southwest winds of 10 to 20 kts with
gusts to around 25 kts develop this afternoon in the Upper and Lower
Snake Plain affecting KIDA and KPIH.  Wind speeds should be slightly
less on Sunday. Precipitation is not expected at any TAF site. Some
smoke at IDA but do not expect continuous visibility obstructions.


.FIRE WEATHER...Showers or thunderstorms are not expected before
Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The main focus will be on
increasing temperatures, lower humidity, Haines Index, and some
winds. Breezy southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will develop this
afternoon, mainly in Zone 410, the east end of the Lemhi Range Zone
476 and there may be isolated gusts topping out near 25 mph above
Island Park, and Preston/St. Charles in Zone 413. Gusts up to 30 mph
may develop in the Arco Desert. Zone average Humidity in Zones
410/413/425/427 this afternoon will be near or below 15 percent. The
winds are not wide spread enough to go for Red Flag conditions.
Winds will be breezy again Sunday and Monday, but a little lighter.
Temperatures continue to trend up, the lower valleys reaching 80 to
90F Monday and Tuesday.  The Haines Index Monday will be 5 across
nearly all of Se Idaho, and 6 on Tuesday. Latest models are showing
some significant thunderstorm potential with monsoon moisture
advancing north through all of Zones 410/411/413 Tuesday night and
Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to show some consistency in
bringing low pressure disturbance inland by next weekend. RS

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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