Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 191051
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
351 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH THE SAME IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
POTENTIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING VERY QUICKLY SO HEAVY
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED. EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE
6 THOUSAND FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 4500 FEET SATURDAY
EVENING THEN RISE TO ABOVE 6500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
DIFFICULT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH PASSES ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET EXPECTED TO GET OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IS EXPECTED TO GET MAINLY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT AND HEAVILY
ELEVATION BASED. 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES FROM 6 THOUSAND TO 7500 FEET AND
ABOVE A FOOT POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS ROADS.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THRU FRIDAY. WEEKEND SYSTEM COMING TO AN END
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LINGERING PRECIP HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST HIGHLANDS. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES FOR TUESDAY. NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS INTO PACNW TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACHES EAST IDAHO FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. GFS AND EC BOTH SHARPEN THE TROUGH AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE PACNW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE
AHEAD OF PRECIP ONSET LATE IN THE DAY MOST AREAS. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES EAST IDAHO WITH 700MB AND SFC
FEATURES DEEPENING SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN UTAH/EAST IDAHO/WESTERN
WY. EACH MODEL KEEPS 500MB TROUGH OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH CLOSED
700MB CIRCULATION. CURRENT SOLUTIONS REMAIN COLD WITH SHARP TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHRISTMAS DAY...AND COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR WHITE
CHRISTMAS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR/MVFR IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOIST SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MTNS INCLUDING KSUN BY LATE
MORNING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR AND FIELD MINIMUMS EARLY AFTN.
PRECIP SPREADS EAST INTO SNAKE PLAIN IN THE EARLY AFTN AS WELL WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY EVENING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
RAIN AT KBYI/KPIH/KIDA TERMINALS. SYSTEM SLIPS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIP ENDING KSUN/KBYI DURING THE EVENING AND SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. VCSH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PAST 06Z FOR
KPIH/KIDA WITH FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR CONTINUED STRATUS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
FOR KIDA/KPIH IF TEMPS FALL FAST ENOUGH BEFORE PRECIP FULLY ENDS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$






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