Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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199
FXUS65 KPIH 270835
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
235 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thu night. High pressure will continue
the warming trend under light wind. This may be summer`s last
hurrah with some afternoon highs in the low 80s in the Snake River
plain. The upper level ridge gets broken down by a trough
approaching from the south on Wed night. First will be a spread of
cloudiness, however, keeping temperatures in the south part of the
forecast area mild. The trough crosses through from south to
north, mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area, during
the day on Thu. By Thu afternoon, moisture is spread throughout
all of central and eastern Idaho. Amounts are expected to be
mainly light, outside of thunderstorms, which are posssible as
early as Thu afternoon and evening. With the cloud cover on Thu,
temperatures will cool strongly from the 80-plus deg F of the
Snake River plain for the previous couple of days. Wind will also
be on the increase, but not expected to be significant.

.LONG TERM...Fri through Mon night. A couple of shortwave impulses
keep the precipitation from the Thu shortwave going. Instead of
coming from the south, these shortwaves will be coming from the
west and southwest, so temperatures will wind up cooler. The
strongest arrives late Sat or Sun, bringing high temperatures down
into the upper 50s even for the Snake River plain. It should also
be windy on Sun as this shortwave will be strong enough to have an
associated surface cold front. Another trough arrives Mon
afternoon/Tue night, continuing precipitation and the colder than
normal temperatures, with highs mainly in the 50s.

Messick
&&

.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions continue. The potential for
fog affecting any TAF site, mainly KDIJ, remains pretty low. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunny skies and light winds continue today and
Wednesday with valley temperatures warming into the middle and upper
70s. Late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning there will be a
developing disturbance near the Oregon coast. Moist unstable air
begins to advance through the Great Basin into the Caribou and South
Central Highlands to support isolated showers. The chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms increases across southeast Idaho Thursday
afternoon/night. Cloud cover and additional moisture will result in
afternoon temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler with humidity in the 25-
45 percent range. The first wave of showers passes quickly by
Thursday night and the second arrives Saturday with a better chance
of wetting rains from showers and any embedded thunderstorms.
Temperatures continue to fall back to the 50s and 60s for the
weekend. Sunday should be between disturbances, another round of
showers follows on Monday of next week and again on Wednesday. RS
&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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