Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 131957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
157 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...EAST IDAHO IN CONFLUENCE REGION BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ENERGY PUSHING INTO GREAT BASIN
FROM CALIFORNIA. MUCH OF FORECAT AREA REMAINS CLEAR AND
INCREASINGLY MILD WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS ALONG SOUTHERN
BORDERS THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR DYNAMICS PRESENT TO
WARRANT ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO NOSE UP INTO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND UPPER
MOISTURE THROUGH NEVADA SHOULD PUSH NORTH AS WELL AND COULD SEE
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW DAYS AS RESULT. GFS AND ECMWF
APPEAR TO BE STICKING TO TREND OF EJECTING PACIFIC WAVE NORTH
ALONG COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NAM ON BOARD NOW AS WELL
AND IS HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN
RIDGE AXIS. GFS HAS INCREASED MOISTURE AS WELL BUT HOLDS OFF ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEARBY. GIVEN EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE IN
THE NAM WILL KEEP VERY MEAGER POPS IN FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PUMP
MOISTURE THROUGH GREAT BASIN INTO THE RIDGE...BUT AT DIFFERENT
TIMING AND STRENGTH. AFTER BRIEFLY FLIRTING WITH A CUT OFF LOW
THAT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST IN THE 06Z RUN...THE GFS HAS
RETURNED TO ITS OPEN TROUGH SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z RUN. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER HAS FOLLOWED THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION WITH SPLITTING THE
TROUGH AND FORMING A CUT OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY
LATE THURSDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER
EAST IDAHO...AND GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
DMH


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VIS IMAGERY
SHOWING SMOKE PLUME FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRES ENTERING IDAHO.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER.
HINSBERGER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
PASS LATE TUESDAY AND WILL OPEN US UP TO A MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST THURSDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS SCENARIO INDEED PLAYS OUT.
HINSBERGER


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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