Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 300239
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
839 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...BAND OF CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO AREA FROM ROUGHLY
DUBOIS SOUTHWEST TO JEROME. EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
STILL LOOKING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS PARTICILARY IN MAGIC VALLEY REGION. AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN
JUICY AND CANT RULE OUT ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THOUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION STABILIZES SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE MINIMIZED. IN SOUTHEAST CORNER CLOUD COVER KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
DESPITE PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH GREAT BASIN.
WILL EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NE THROUGH UTAH WITH
THE NRN AREA OF INFLUENCE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. DEEP
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. CONVECTIVE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND THUS AM
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NE TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO NRN NEVADA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (ON A MORE SE
TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS PROGS). MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
FETCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE SRN EXTENSION OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BC COAST GRADUALLY MIGRATES
INLAND. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEN IT FINALLY DOES COME ASHORE. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MODELS
BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR TIME FRAME. HUSTON

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ALL SITES EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EP

FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS OF AROUND 50 MPH. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ARE
FAVORED TODAY...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEING THE FOCUS
OF CONVECTION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH CENTRAL IDAHO DISPATCH AND
THEIR NEWLY CRITICAL FUELS IN ZONES 475 AND 476...A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 422 475 AND 476 IN ANTICIPATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. EP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING IDZ422-475-476.

&&

$$







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