Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS65 KPIH 291932
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
132 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING NOW
DOMINATES THE WEST AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFF TO
THE EAST. THE RIDGE DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO CUT OFF
THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...SO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
INTO THE EVE HOURS. MORE MOISTURE BECOMES AVAILABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST OVER THE W COAST. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SAT AFTN AND EVE...ALSO
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. THIS PATTERN REPEATS ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE W COAST. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MON AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INLAND.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THRU THE WEEKEND. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. NO MAJOR OVERALL CHANGES TO
FORECAST. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH GFS/ECMWF ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. ECMWF SUGGESTS A FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WHILE THE GFS GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING AN
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. ECMWF HOWEVER DEVELOPS
A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A CUTOFF OVER ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER
OREGON AND SUPPORTS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY. HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. REDUCED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. NAM
SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO THREATEN TAF SITES TODAY.
HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.