Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 231950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday evening. Both the GFS and NAM
are in lock step as they rotate the low positioned over SE Nevada NE
through CNTRL Utah tonight and into SW Wyoming by Sunday evening as
attending moisture overspreads the SE mountains. Model snow levels
appear much too high given the colder near surface wet-bulb temps.
Have generally favored the wet-bulb temps as much as possible while
integrating the latest model QPF over the SE highlands which gives a
storm total snowfall of less than 2 inches below 6000 ft MSL, 2 to 9
inches between 6000 and 8000 ft MSL, and upwards of 10 inches over
the higher peaks of the Idaho portion of the NRN Wasatch near Bear
Lake. Thus have continued the Winter Weather Advisory for the
Caribou and Bear Lake regions late tonight through Sunday night. We
may also see 1 to 4 inches above 5500 ft MSL down over the mountains
near Malad Summit (extreme ERN portion of IDZ022). The low shifts
east of the region by Monday afternoon as a drier NW flow works into
the area from the west. Numerical models continue to show a weak
disturbance topping the west coast ridge Monday afternoon which
subsequently digs SSE across the NRN Rockies Monday night and
Tuesday with varying results indicated by the models over the last
several days. Have made very few changes here allowing the slight
chance mention of mountain snow to continue across the CNTRL
mountains and along the Montana divide. Daytime temperatures remain
cool through Monday before warming some Tuesday. Temperatures cool
enough to support a light frost tonight, however with the
approaching low, winds should pick up from the west and north
throughout the Snake River Plain and ERN Magic Valley which may hold
temps slightly higher than forecast. Even though a majority of all
three valley zones recorded a brief killing freeze this morning we
will issue a frost advisory for tonight for those wishing to extend
their gardening season. Huston

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday. Models in agreement on a
quiet period in the long term with dry conditions expected and a
warming trend daily. After starting out slightly below normal...high
temperatures will rise to above normal readings by Friday and
Saturday. With upper ridging the main feature not expecting strong
winds through the period. GK

.AVIATION...Stratus has lingered all day at most sites but SUN and
BYI have risen to VFR status. Expect the other sites to improve the
remainder of the afternoon also to VFR conditions. The southern
portion of the system that affected the region the last several days
will move north Sunday and could create some rain showers at DIJ,
PIH and IDA. For now kept VFR but went with some rain showers at PIH
and DIJ Sunday morning. Best chance for less than VFR conditions
will be at DIJ. GK

.FIRE WEATHER...No fire weather concerns for several days with fuels
now non critical after several days of cold temperatures, high
humidity and recent abundant precipitation haven fallen over the
region.  Expect to see additional showers in the southeast part of
the state on Sunday as the upper level low begins to move out of the
region.  Drying and warming will be the trend for the whole next
week. High temperatures will warm to seasonal normals for late
September by Tuesday and are expected to rise to well above normal
by next Thursday.  Expect mainly dry conditions Monday through next
week. VP

Winter Weather Advisory continues from midnight tonight to midnight
MDT Sunday night for IDZ023-025.

Frost Advisory late tonight through Sunday morning for IDZ017-020-

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