Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 232025
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
225 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL 95KT JET MAX WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT LIES ROUGHLY THROUGH MONIDA PASS AND THE
ARCO DESERT AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER 40 MPH RANGE AND THOSE GUSTS MAY INCREASE SOME THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE JET NOSES INLAND. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS
IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL
TO DEVELOP. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY OBSERVED NEAR ARCO AND
BURLEY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASED OVER NIGHT IN THE SNAKE PLAIN BUT
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ADVANCES
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOCAL STUDY FAVORS WINDS JUST UNDER
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...OR SQUARELY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTY. FULLY EXPECT A WIND ADVISORY TO BE RE ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS EDGE CLOSER TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS TUESDAY MORNING...MAY GET A TRACE TO HALF INCH YET IN PARTS
OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. SPOTTER NEAR GRACE REPORTED A INCH AND A HALF
OF SNOW TODAY. THE SNOW STAKE AT SUN VALLEY SHOWED 2 INCHES THIS
MORNING...THEN STOPPED FOR AWHILE. THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY
MORNING SHOULD ADD ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES AT SUN VALLEY AND THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS...MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS
TOMORROW SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 5000 TO 5500 FEET ELEVATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHARP RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE COAST AND A DOSE OF COOL NORTH
WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL TO PREVENT ANY SHARP WARM UP ON
WEDNESDAY. RS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK LOOKS DECIDEDLY DRIER THANKS TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO WA/OR. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SPILLING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...BUT RESULTING POPS REMAIN LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN BY SATURDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH. GFS IS TRENDING WEAKER WITH PACIFIC
CUTOFF LOW ENTERING INTO CALIFORNIA...NOW IS PRODUCING A
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH. ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS CONTINUE SHOWING THE
CUTOFF LOW ENTERING CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. MADE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST OVERALL.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS NOT
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
KTS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LOWERING CEILINGS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. ANTICIPATING THE PRECIP TYPE
TO BE SNOW AT KSUN BASED ON TEMP PROFILE. SNAKE PLAIN SITES...MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$







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