Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 241000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE...THEN IT STARTS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THEN WEAK TROUGHING AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING IN MOISTURE FOR THU/THU
NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN MORE THAN THE WED TROUGH. STILL...QPF IS VERY
LOW WITH ONLY UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT OUT OF
THIS PATTERN. SO SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LOW WITH THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND WOOD RIVER BASIN ARE THE MAIN RECIPIENTS.
TEMPERATURES PEAK ON WED PRIOR TO COLD FRONT ARRIVAL WITH ALL THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL...THEN IT ALL TURNS
COLDER FOR WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT. EXPECT ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WED. THUS DO NOT BELIEVE ANY
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME BUT MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE SHOWERS WITH BETTER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY SNOW TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT YET WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO STAY
TUNED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CLIP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND PARK/YELLOWSTONE AREA. PROBABLY NOT
AFFECTING TAF SITES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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