Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 282015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
215 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DISTURBANCE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ARCO DESERT
NEAR NOON TIME SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SOUTH HIGHLANDS WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT MAKING
FOR SOME WARM MORNING TEMPERATURES FROM POCATELLO TO BURLEY. WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BY NOONTIME...GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
DURING THE DAY. VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY LIMITED TO MAINLY THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES COOL A GOOD 10 DEGREES. THE NEXT SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY A DRY FRONT
WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY WITH TRAILING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY FLAT THROUGH THE WEEK. RS

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A SMALL UPTICK IN COVERAGE TOMORROW. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL
LIKELY BE HIGH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES IN THE
MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS AT TAF SITES RUNNING 5-15 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHILE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE END UP 10-20KTS
HIGHER. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE AS HIGH AS 20KTS
SUSTAINED WITH WINDS ABOUT 10KTS HIGHER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GROUND.
GUSTS 25-40KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR ANY
STORMS THAT FORM AND MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY ZONES 427 AND 413 AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PEAKS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO UP
TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS WELL...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH BY MID MORNING. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR GREATER
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SE IDAHO...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PEAKS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS
HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 422...475...AND 476 BEGINNING
AT 6 AM AND ZONES 427...410...AND 413 BY NOON. DESPITE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY BETWEEN 16 AND 25
PERCENT...THE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL FUELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO RAPID SPREADING OF EXISTING FIRES OR NEW FIRE
STARTS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
GUSTS DROPPING TO 20 MPH OR LESS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. RED FLAGS ARE
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. BREEZY CONDITIONS REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN ANOTHER EPISODE OF BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AD/KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ410-413-
427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ422-475-
476.

&&

$$



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