Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 131621
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1020 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...ARCO/HOWE
AREA EXITING OUT OF THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS...AND SWEETZER SUMMIT AREA
FROM SUBLETT TO THE UTAH STATE LINE ALONG INTERSTATE 84 THROUGH 3
PM. A STEEP SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REPORTED NEAR DRIGGS...AND LIGHT SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ALL THE WAY TO RICHFIELD AND BURLEY. BY
LATE MORNING THIS ENTIRE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLAND AREA...AND BY SUNSET ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR BEAR LAKE AREA. COLDER NORTH WINDS
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR IN FOR
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN...INCLUDING THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
SHOULD BE THE RULE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. EXPECT ISLAND PARK WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LOWER. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS BEFORE PUSHING TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN MONDAY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY SUNNY DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING 5 TO 7 DEGREES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG WEST TO EAST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT 25 TO 35 MPH
IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED. SHOWERS INCREASE TO SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
AGAIN DROPPING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. RS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS THIS MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST.  EXPECTING A RIDGE TO BUILD IN ON
THURSDAY TO WARM THINGS UP. AS FRIDAY WEARS ON...BOTH MODELS SHOWING
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE WET. WEAK
RIDGING LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EP
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KIDA AND
KPIH...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY. SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
CLEAR OUT AS TODAY WEARS ON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 13/18Z. VALLEY SITES
WILL SEE ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CALMING DOWN NEAR
SUNSET. EP
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 3 PM MDT IDZ020-022-032.
&&

$$










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