475
FXUS65 KSLC 122051
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
251 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A prolonged stretch of hot and dry conditions
continues into next week. Chances for isolated high-based showers
and thunderstorms return from Monday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday...Temperatures will continue
to warm across the region through Sunday and Monday as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the western US. The latest NBM forecasts
for HeatRisk show several pockets of major (i.e. heat affecting
anyone without adequate cooling) by Monday, most widespread over
lower Washington County. St George has a 60% chance of
reaching/exceeding 110F for the first time yet this season Monday,
while overnight `lows` will only reach around 80F. Thus, have
issued an Extreme Heat Warning for that area. Future shifts will
need to monitor whether the warning should be expanded in area to
include Zion NP and expanded in time to include Sunday and/or
Tuesday. Zion Canyon is currently forecasted to see lows near 70
which drops it out of the major HeatRisk, but will need to watch
closely in case the NBM is overestimating those low temperatures.
A few valleys of central and northern Utah are also flirting with
major HeatRisk Monday/Tuesday, but not widespread enough in
impactful areas to merit headline consideration at this time.

Other than hot temperatures, we will continue to see afternoon cumulus
buildups over the southern Utah mountains and Uintas, with an
isolated thunderstorm here and there. Chances will slowly trend
upward each day heading into early next week as moisture slightly
increases.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday), issued 420 AM MDT...
Ridging aloft gradually drifts west by Monday with its western
periphery hanging off the coast of CA. With this flow pattern,
modest moisture return will begin with PWATs generally ranging
from around 0.5-0.7" across the majority of UT and southwest WY.
This will be enough moisture to spark isolated showers and
thunderstorms across our typical higher terrain spots each
afternoon through the long term due to weak synoptic forcing in
play. With heights building over the forecast area, hot
temperatures are expected areawide throughout the duration of the
long term with our valley locations seeing temperatures in the
upper 90s to low 100s each day. Additionally, lower Washington
county will see temperatures nearing and perhaps exceeding 110F
each day. Be sure to drink plenty of water, limit time in the sun,
and dress appropriately!

Nearing the end of the long term, troughing / a cutoff low looks to
develop off the west coast which will serve to increase moisture
return across the region. Guidance regarding this solution is
somewhat iffy at best and would support more widespread shower and
thunderstorm development beginning across southern UT as early as
Friday. This would be a welcomed solution as we have remained quite
dry as of late and bears watching as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the
KSLC terminal as clear skies and diurnally driven wind patterns
prevail. Northwesterly upvalley flows will remain in place through
around 03-04Z, then revert to a southerly downvalley flow
thereafter. VFR conditions prevail through the next 30 hours.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Isolated high-based
showers across portions of southern Utah will bring a low chance of
gusty outflows through about 02Z before skies clear through the
overnight hours. Winds will become largely light and terrain driven
as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building into the western US will
bring hot and mostly dry conditions to Utah through the beginning
of next week. Afternoon relative humidities in the single digits
can be expected once again across central/southern Utah valleys,
along with poor overnight recoveries. Despite the dry airmass,
cumulus buildups and very isolated high-based showers will be
possible over the higher terrain of southern Utah as well as the
high Uintas, with a threat of brief, localized gusty outflow
winds. Elsewhere, isolated pockets of critical fire weather
conditions are possible in the afternoons where daily breezes are
stronger.

Modest midlevel moisture is expected to spread into the area
by Tuesday, bringing an increased threat of high-based showers
and thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to remain generally
isolated to widely scattered for much of the week, but the threat
of gusty outflow winds and dry lightning will exist. Deeper
moisture looks to work its way into the area by next weekend,
increasing the potential for wetting rain, though there is still
uncertainty in how robust the moisture stream will be.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Monday for UTZ123.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Van Cleave/Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity