Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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102 FXUS63 KMPX 071045 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers likely Friday night into Saturday morning. - Warming trend as we head into next week with a few slight rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Today... Clear skies overnight will continue into this morning. CLouds will start to move in from west to east this afternoon into tonight as the next round of rain moves in. Temperatures should rise to about normal in the 70s today with the sunny start to the day. This will be enough by the afternoon for good mixing, but winds aloft are lower today and it will not be as windy as yesterday. It should still get gusty again late morning into afternoon, just at lower speeds maxing out more in the 20-25 mph range. There will be some RH values falling into the 25 to 35 percent range, so we will be on the edge of fire weather criteria. With recent rains and the removal of drought conditions though this should help limit fire weather concerns today. Tonight into Saturday... As temperatures fall this evening into tonight moisture advection will help saturate the air. This combined with a shortwave aloft should support rain showers tonight into Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are not particularly high for this time of year up around an inch, so QPF is not impressive in most ensemble guidance. Also not much in the way of instability, so thunderstorms are unlikely. So a good setup for some light rain with most under a 0.25", but a region of 0.25-05" is possible based on the 00Z HREF. Best chance appears to be east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin based on the expected tracks of the showers. After the shortwave passes, Saturday should be a pretty nice day with clearing skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Sunday through Thursday... Looking ahead, next week is where the spread really starts to increase. Overall a warming trend with above normal temperatures more likely by the end of the week. How warm and what rain chances we get though is less certain. Looking at the latest LREF the GEFS favor a cooler and wetter pattern with the GEPS favoring warmer and drier. The ENS is more in the middle. Looking to deterministic models the GFS is the dry one with the ECMWF looking wetter for us. So when are these rain chances? There looks to be two periods of synoptic support late Sunday and Tuesday. Neither had a particularly strong signal, so PoP values have been kept low until there is some better clustering in the ensemble guidance and better agreement in the forcing mechanisms in the deterministic models. What is more certain is the warming trend. WAA kicks up in the later part of the week with 80s looking likely and 90 on the upper quartile. Basically after a few late spring days ahead the later part of next week will feel like summer has arrived. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR expected into this evening before rain showers move in from west to east through tonight. Rain rates should only be light to moderate with minimal impacts expected. Skies will become broken to overcast with cloud bases falling to near 5000 feet over AXN and STC. However, terminals to the south should fall to MVFR in the few hours prior to the end of the TAF period. West- northwesterly winds will be around 10 knots sustained through this afternoon (with gusts up to 20 knots) before slowing and becoming 5 knots to variable overnight. Wind direction will generally trend to more northerly by the end of the TAF period. KMSP...Light to moderate rain showers should start after 06Z tonight and last until around 13Z Saturday morning. No major impacts to visibilities are expected but cigs are favored to fall to near 2000 feet for a multi-hour period during Saturday morning before improving. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N 10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind NE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...CTG