Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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854 FXUS63 KMPX 052133 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 433 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through early evening. Damaging winds and hail are possible with any stronger storms that develop, mostly along and north of I-94. - Breezy northwest winds are expected through the end of the week with gusts of 35-40 MPH possible Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 TONIGHT-THURSDAY... Surface analysis this afternoon puts the cold front responsible for yesterday`s active weather over the central Great Lakes, with a secondary albeit weaker cold front developing over the Dakota/MN border, and a third also weak cold front sitting north of the international border. All these fronts emanate from a large low pressure center over western Ontario province. Aloft, a fairly potent shortwave from the western Great Lakes to the mid-Mississippi River valley continues to drift southeast within northwesterly flow in advance of a building western CONUS ridge. This shortwave, in conjunction with enhanced winds going upwards in the atmosphere along with residual boundary layer moisture (evidenced by low- mid 50s dew points generally along and north of I-94), is contributing to scattered convection which could be capable of a strong/damaging wind gust, hail near to slightly over 1 inch in diameter, and possibly a few funnel clouds. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for northern/eastern MN and WI. Once going into dusk and further into the evening hours, any convection will steadily diminish and shift east. The complication then becomes persistently strong winds due to a tightened pressure gradient over MN/WI and subsidence behind the front bringing down the strong winds from aloft without a sufficient inversion to cause decoupling overnight and then continuing into Thursday. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue for the next 24 hours. As the third front pushes through Thursday night, this will allow winds to diminish and usher in high pressure that will become the dominant weather feature through the rest of the forecast period. Temps will run mild through Thursday night as highs drop from the low to mid 70s today, to the low-mid 60s Thursday, and lows remain in the 50s. FRIDAY-TUESDAY... Much more tranquil conditions are expected for the end of this week into the start of next week as high pressure with modest ridging aloft work in tandem to keep any frontal systems away from the Midwest. This will promote dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Wind will also remain fairly light. Temps are expected to go on a warming trend over the weekend into next week with highs back in the low-mid 70s through Monday, then reaching the mid-upper 70s on Tuesday. Similarly, lows will range from the 50s over the weekend, then start to nudge to the lower 60s in a few spots early next week. LOOKING AHEAD... Taking a brief peek at conditions late next week, above normal temperatures are likely to arrive. Longer range model high temps look to hit the mid-80s for much of the area, potentially even the upper 80s in southern MN. As for precip, POps look to run generally below climatology, thus making additional rainfall a bit hard to come by, but allowing much of the area to dry out after multiple rain events recently. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A band of virga/elevated showers will move across southern Minnesota this early afternoon. No visibility impact is expected with any rain that reaches the ground, but wind gusts as high as 40 mph are possible at times. Elsewhere across central MN & western WI, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon & continue until sunset. Coverage will be isolated across eastern Minnesota with relatively low (20-30%) chance of any -TSRA at a given terminal, so will message this threat in the TAF with a VCTS. Coverage looks to be more widespread across western Wisconsin, so included a TEMPO for -TSRA at RNH & EAU. Brief heavy downpours with IFR visibility are likely with any thunderstorms, & a few storms will likely contain small hail & sporadic wind gusts around 40 mph. Skies will clear out after sunset, with low-VFR stratocumulus moving in tomorrow morning. Isolated rain showers are also possible during the day. Winds will westerly to west-northwesterly through the period, with gusts around 30 kts through sunset. Wind speeds weaken after sunset but some gusts around 20 kts are still likely overnight. Winds become slightly more northwesterly tomorrow morning with speeds increasing & gusts up to 30 kts redeveloping. KMSP...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly between 2-6 PM. Chances are low for a given storm to impact the terminal, but brief IFR conditions are possible with any storms, The strongest storms may also contain small hail & gusty winds up to 40 mph. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth- Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPC AVIATION...ETA