Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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652 FXUS63 KMPX 010827 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and clouds will gradually clear from west to east today. - Severe thunderstorms & localized heavy rain possible Sunday evening, especially across western and southern Minnesota. - Another chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms is likely Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Today through Monday...Showers continue to diminish in coverage and intensity early this morning along and east of a line from roughly Fairmont to Mankato to the eastern Twin Cities metro up through Taylors Falls. An additional tenth to two tenths of an inch of rainfall is possible through sunrise as the showers continue to progress to the northeast. Hi-res models indicate that some redevelopment of showers in this same general area and western Wisconsin is possible later this morning as a weak 700mb wave moves through. Otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Attention then turns to Sunday afternoon and the threat of additional rain and severe thunderstorms. While the SPC SWODY2 Slight Risk was expanded eastward to include the western half of Minnesota and the Marginal Risk encompassing the remainder of the MPX forecast area, there are a few factors that may impact how much severe weather we end up seeing. First and most notably, forecast CAPE values have decreased from run to run over the last 24 hours or so. This may be in part to some Sunday morning convection that CAMs are highlighting across western and southern Minnesota associated with a LLJ/WAA. This cloud cover would prevent afternoon highs from reaching the low 80s from previous forecasts and limit instability. Another factor is the timing of the cold front moving from the Dakotas into Minnesota, which seems to have slowed down from previous forecasts. Storms coming from the Dakotas are expected to grow upscale into an MCS as it crosses into Minnesota Sunday evening with the main threat being damaging winds and heavy rain. The system would weaken as it continues eastward into Wisconsin around sunrise Monday with showers ending by mid afternoon. Tuesday through Friday...After a brief break from active weather Monday afternoon, rain and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday. A negatively tilted 500mb trough is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Dakotas through early Wednesday morning. There are still timing differences between the guidance as well as slight differences in placement and strength, but another round of heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms appears likely. There will be plenty of Gulf moisture advected northward with PW values above the 90th percentile of climatological norms and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. As of right now, this system looks to be stronger than Sunday`s and definitely bears watching over the next couple of days. Behind this system, we get back into northwest flow aloft with the 500mb low lingering across northeastern Minnesota. Additional shower chances are possible through the second half of the week with highs in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The area of showers that`s been with us through much of the past day is slowly shrinking in coverage and intensity early this morning. A few more hours of -SHRA are expected from KMKT/KMSP/KRNH with some lower cigs moving in for all except KAXN which has found the edge of the cloud shield. Some fog/mist may accompany these lower cigs through mid morning before things clear out from west to east, leaving VFR conditions for all through the end of the period. Winds will be westerly to southerly at generally 5kts or less. KMSP...Went a bit more on the pessimistic side with the cigs/vis through this morning and may need to adjust with the 09z AMD. VFR conditions return by early afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, MVFR/-RA likely late chc TS. Wind S 10-20 kts. MON...MVFR/-RA early chc TS, then VFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR early, then MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...Dye