Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 102151
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the center of high pressure
over the Great Lakes while a low pressure center is getting
organized over southern Saskatchewan province, including a front
sagging south over eastern MT/WY. Aloft, a small ridge axis over
the MN/WI border is continuing to shift east while a compact upper
level low atop the aforementioned surface feature rotates
eastward. Fairly deep moisture in advance of the low and on the
backside of the ridge has kept cloud cover in place all day and
the clouds will stay tonight through much of tomorrow as the front
to the west slowly approaches. The front is expected to cross the
area through the day tomorrow, producing light snow in advance of
it for mainly northern and eastern portions of the WFO MPX
coverage area. Accumulations will be light once again, potentially
up to an inch of snow north of Interstate 94 with 1-2 inches
possible in interior west-central Wisconsin through tomorrow
morning. The front will push of the precipitation during the day
tomorrow, resulting in mainly cloudy skies for the second half of
Saturday. With the area remaining within a de facto warm sector
through tomorrow, temperatures will actually moderate over the
next 24 hours. Temperatures will remain nearly steady through
tonight then hit the mid 30s to the mid 40s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Saturday night through Tuesday...High pressure will follow the
aforementioned frontal system into the area Saturday night then
slowly move across the area Sunday into early next week. This will
allow winds to gradually swing from northwesterly to southerly
over the early portion of next week. In addition, deep upper level
ridging emanating from the southwestern CONUS and northern Mexico
will extend well north into the north-central CONUS, resulting in
increasing H5 heights and, hence, temperatures across the region
with no precipitation expected once any lingering showers end over
extreme eastern and southern portions of the area Saturday night.
Whereas H5 temps plummeted to -14C to -18C last night, they will
rebound to around +5C on Tuesday. With the deep southerly flow in
advance of the next system for the middle of next week, the
ridging will allow highs on Tuesday to range from the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

Wednesday through Friday...A more active end of the week is
expected with several fronts pushing through the area but with
mainly zonal flow and modified Pacific airmasses. Thus, relatively
more mild air plus mixtures of rain/snow precipitation waves will
be the rule for the latter half of next week. Not looking for much
in the way of QPF so the precipitation will be mainly of the
nuisance kind. Best chances for precip come Tuesday night for far
eastern MN into western WI and Thursday into Friday for the entire
coverage area. Even then, the late week system has some model
disagreement with it so PoPs are capped in the mid-chance range.
Highs for late week will generally run in the 30s and 40s with
lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

VFR conditions for the first portion of the TAF then conditions
expected to deteriorate somewhat this evening into the early
morning hours in advance of a cold front approaching for Saturday.
Snow showers to develop over north-central MN then spread
southeast through eastern MN and western WI this evening and
tonight, mainly north of I-94. Most spots to remain as VFR
although MSP and eastward may well be reduced to MVFR due to
ceilings (with the WI TAF sites possibly seeing steady enough -SN
for MVFR visibilities). Duration will not be long, essentially
exiting by 12z tomorrow morning with VFR conditions to resume.
Gusty SE winds to continue into the evening hours then settling
down overnight and slowly veering to SW and W.

KMSP...Have currently only advertised VFR-visibility -SN but
should the swath of -SN dip a little further S and become
prolonged, visibility could well drop to the 3SM-4SM range for
possibly a couple hours. At this point, went with the more
optimistic 6SM and hinted at the degraded conditions but will
need to see how the -SN develops later before reducing conditions
any further. Ceilings are expected to remain above 2000ft but
cannot completely rule out ceilings a bit lower.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon-Tue...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC



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