Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 302040
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE INITIAL WAVE MOVING OVER NORTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING INDICATED AND THIS WILL BE
THE CONTINUING TREND OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN
INTO THE EVENING.  WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST
MAINLY AFTER 05Z WED AS THE NEXT WAVE SPREADS EAST AND PUSHES THE
RAIN THREAT FARTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN CWA. WILL HAVE TO CARRY
POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THIS MAIN PRECIPITATION BELT MOVES
THROUGH.  MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY DRY HIGH TO THE EAST...WE
WILL KEEP EAST CENTRAL MN/WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOULD RANGE 55 TO 60 OVERNIGHT...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE MOST
PART.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOT TOO MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE
STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WITH ONLY GRADUAL MOISTURE/THERMAL INCREASES INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...FINALLY REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S LATE IN THE LONG TERM. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...AND THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD WILL EASE WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING A BIT
FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS QUICK AS RIDGING ARRIVES
IT WILL BE TAMPED DOWN BY A SUBSEQUENT TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN AREAS ARE LIFTING AND BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH PERHAPS A LINGERING MVFR CIG FROM THE SOUTHEAST
METRO INTO SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. THEN SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO FAR WESTERN MN INTO THE EVENING WITH
PERHAPS A SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER INTO FAR WEST MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OUT THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MID CLOUDS
REMAINING TOT HE WEST FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
HOWEVER. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NE-E DIRECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO THE FAR WEST INTO THE
LATE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KMSP...CONTINUE VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS E-SE AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE



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